While recent terrorist atrocities have interrupted UK General Election campaigning, current Prime Minister Theresa May has resisted calls to postpone Thursday’s poll.
Mrs May is expecting to have her position confirmed and all the opinion polls have her party ahead of Labour. But the margins are all over the place with one suggesting that the Conservatives have a 12-point lead over Labour but another putting the Tories just one point ahead of the UK’s other major party.
Could we yet see an upset of Trump proportions?
When Theresa May called the General Election five weeks ago, the Conservatives had a 24-point lead and had just trounced Labour, the Liberal Democrats and UKIP in the council elections. But there has been a real surge in support for Jeremy Corbyn, who has been much more effective on the campaign trail than many expected. His own popularity rating has soared as Mrs May’s has plummeted and Labour’s manifesto contains policies attractive to ordinary families. The Conservatives have already been forced into U-turns in a couple of their key policies and are perceived to be targeting the weakest sections of society so there is now real cause for optimism among Labour supporters whereas there was none just a few weeks ago.
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The Conservatives are still a general 1/4 to win an overall majority but it’s now only 9/2 with Ladbrokes that there is no overall majority.
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Labour’s appeal has undoubtedly been underestimated by the current government and four of the six weekend opinion polls show that support for them is still increasing. But things are looking bleak for the Liberal Democrats, who will struggle to increase their current nine seats in the House Of Commons. Under 11.5 total seats for Lib-Dems looks a decent bet at 5/6 with Paddy Power.
Labour’s hopes of winning most seats (a best 7/1) probably rests with the 18-24 age group turning up and voting. If that doesn’t materialise, traditional Tory voters should see the Conservatives given another five years – but has Theresa May’s reputation been irrevocably damaged? Instead of strong and stable, she’s come across as fearful, defensive and unable to adapt to changing circumstances – but is she still a safe pair of hands compared to Corbyn?
