UK Political Betting – Where the markets are at

UK Politics betting gets high activity

UK Politics Betting Preview – Brexit and General Election

The political landscape in the UK is in hot turmoil. Nobody knows which way the Brexit ordeal is going to go. No-one knows when the next election is coming. No-one knows how long Boris Johnson is going to be at Number 10. The Prime Minister has already had a tough time in Parliament, with increasing opposition slamming obstacles in his way.

Johnson, despite saying that he wants a deal with Europe for Brexit, wants Britain out on October 31st, deal or no deal. It’s the no-deal option that has gotten people up in arms the most because of uncertainties over what it would do, primarily, to the economy, jobs and trade in the UK.

 

NO DEAL BREXIT
No* 1/4
Yes** 7/4

Politics Betting at Bet365

*Withdrawal Agreement is ratified, Article 50 extended beyond 2019 or Article 50 revoked
**Yes (the UK leave the Eu in 2019 without Withdrawal Agreement in place)

But with a law being passed meaning that the PM has to ask Brussels for an extension to an exit date if he can’t come up with a solution, and with the PM’s desire to throw a snap General Election the public’s way also shut down (plus his motive to prorogue Parliament for an extended time being challenged in the courts), the Political betting markets are hot at the moment.

Boris Johnson Exit Date

There is a 6/4 price at Ladbrokes on Boris Johnson leaving the Prime Minister position this year* (betting odds taken from Ladbrokes on September 23rd, 29th at 1:31 am). Considering that he’s been in office for such a short time after the resignation of predecessor Theresa May, that’s something. But he has been ruthless in his quest to, what many people believe to be his ultimate goal, crash out of the European Union with no deal.

Johnson kicked Conservative MP’s out of the party for voting against him on the bill to ask Brussels for an extension. He’s had MP’s cross party lines and go to the Liberal Democrats. He’s seen his brother leave the Cabinet. But Johnson’s not budging and seems to be ready to test the limits of the new law. He no longer holds a majority in Parliament so his hands are tied there.

Boris Johnson Exit Date

Player
2019 6/4 6/4 6/5
2020 7/2 9/4 7/2
2023+ 2/1 5/1 2/1
2022 12/1 8/1 12/1
2021 12/1 8/1 12/1

(Betting Odds were taken from Ladbrokes, Unibet and Coral on September 23, 2019 at 2.46)

Of note, Boris Johnson would need to last in the job until November 20th this year to avoid setting the record for the shortest ever tenure as Prime Minister. The current shortest-record is 118 days in office by George Canning in 1827, although that was due to the unfortunate circumstances of death cutting short his time at Number 10.

Year of Next General Election

This is one of the most popular markets in UK Politics betting at the moment. If PM Boris Johnson had his way he would hold one tomorrow. He wants a General Election. The Conservatives are still ahead in the polls, so by having an election, Johnson would hope that he wins enough seats in the House to hold a majority. Then he can pretty much do what he wants with a working majority in hand.

The opposition wants a General Election because they believe they can get rid of Johnson. But they don’t want it immediately. Labour and the Liberal Democrats, want to wait. They don’t want to give the PM what he wants right now, a fight in the polling booths. There is the risk that the Conservatives get their way and get their majority and then there’s nothing the opposition can do to stop them over Brexit.

But still, an idea of what is happening with Brexit going to be clear at the end of the month regardless. October 31st is the deadline. It’s when the PM either has to have a deal with Brussels done for Brexit to proceed, or he has to have asked for an extension as per the new law. 2019 is still the red-hot favourite to be the next Election at 2/5 with Coral while 2020 is at 5/2 odds* (betting odds taken from Coral on September 23rd, 29th at 1:31 am).

The month of the Next General Election

If you fancy getting a little bit more specific than you can have a dabble on the month of the Next Election. The opposition to the PM has shut down the chance of there being one in October this year. However, the leading option at the bookmakers is December 2019 at 13/10 with Betfair followed by November 2019 for 7/4. Then you get to a 9/4 option for 2020 or later* (betting odds taken from Betfair on September 23rd, 29th at 1:31 am).

Next Prime Minister

Whenever the next General Election comes around, or whether Boris Johnson resigns, who would be the next Prime Minister? The obvious front runner is Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn who is the market leader at 7/4* (betting odds taken from Bet365 on September 23rd, 29th at 1:31 am). It’s not clear what Labour’s plans are though, whether they are going to firmly be backing a Remain option. They are not concretely there.

Player
Jeremy Corbyn 7/4 13/8 15/8
Ken Clarke 9/1 12/1 10/1
Jo Swinson 14/1 13/1 14/1
Nigel Farage 20/1 16/1 16/1
Keir Starmer 25/1 16/1 16/1
Michael Gove 20/1 25/1 20/1
Dominic Raab 25/1 33/1 33/1

(Betting Odds were taken from Betfair, Bet365 and Unibet on September 22, 2019 at 15:54)

However, Corbyn has mentioned his plan to win a no-confidence vote in the government, have himself step into the role as interim Prime Minister and delay Brexit. Then he would call a snap election once Brexit is on ice and go campaign for a second referendum. That’s his way to try to stop Johnson if nothing else works.

But he may not have enough support in the House to become interim PM, because the Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson, while she is opposing the current PM, doesn’t want Corbyn in that position.

Can Swinson or Clarke make a succesful run at Number 10?

Swinson, a vocal opponent of a no-deal Brexit, is at 14/1 odds to be the next PM* (betting odds taken from Bet365 on September 23rd, 29th at 1:31 am). Her party has locked down a stance over Brexit. If the Liberal Democrats were to come to power, they would take Brexit off the table altogether. There’s no grey area there. They are now a fully “Remain in the EU” party after previously backing a second Brexit Referendum.

The person sandwiching Corbyn and Swinson in the Next Prime Minister market is Ken Clarke. The Conservative stalwart is not ruling out a run at the top job. Unlike Johnson, Clarke is a supporter of the EU but has failed three times before in a Conservative leadership race. But he is seen as being a man who could keep all parties happy. Lib Dems’ Jo Swinson has wanted Clarke or Harriet Harman to take over any emergency government to get Brexit stopped, if a no-confidence vote is successfully thrown at Boris Johnson.

Next UK General Election Most Seats

So come the next Election, as one will happen at some point, who wins? Despite the whole mess of Brexit and fears over a no-deal, the Conservatives look to be well ahead in the polls and are 2/5 with Bet365 to earn the most seats at the next election* (betting odds taken from Bet365 on September 23rd, 29th at 1:31 am)

Labour is at 11/4 to earn the most seats, with the Liberal Democrats trailing at 12/1 outside chancers* (betting odds taken from Bet365 on September 23rd, 29th at 1:31 am). But that’s all without any campaigning and things could all change once that gets going.

Next UK General Overall Majority

This is the most important area of the outcome of an election. Someone has to hold a majority which means full control. The Conservatives, for example, may earn the most seats in a General election but that doesn’t guarantee them the Majority in the House to outvote all of the opposition of Labour and the Lib Dems (and any other opposition from minor parties).

No Overall Majority is the leading option at 8/13 with Betfred because there isn’t a party that looks solid enough to earn such a majority* (betting odds taken from Betfred on September 23rd, 29th at 1:31 am). For reference, the total number of seats needed to form a majority government in the UK is 326. That’s the magic number, basically more than half of the seats in Parliament.

If no-one gets a majority, then the option to form a coalition government is there (like the Conservatives and the Lib Dems did in 2010) or to try and run as a minority government, which would be tough because of the PM not being able to win votes in Parliament from his party alone. A Conservative Majority at the next election is at 7/4* (betting odds taken from Betfred on September 23rd, 2019 at 2:14 am).

UK Political Betting Summary

There doesn’t appear that there are going to be any calm seas on the horizon in British politics anytime soon. What will rise out of all this? Is Boris Johnson getting the vote of no confidence, going to shake things up even more?

Is a Ken Clarke ideal of a government of national unity going to come into play? Will the UK be in or out of the European Union at the end of January? Who will be leading the parties? Who will follow Johnson as the next PM?

Is an end of October crash coming? Will, there be a 2nd Brexit Eu Referendum? There are so many questions and it’s hard to remember a time which UK political betting has been so active.


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