We are always hearing about VALUE in our betting lives. This week I have read a column by a seasoned columnist but I wonder if even he knows where value exists. I have always been a bit wary of this guys “tips”. He doesn’t rely on form but on VALUE. Whatever that is, in his case.
Take a match where the betting is 4/5 HOME 3/1 DRAW 7/2 AWAY. This is a hypothetical book but nevertheless is close to many tight affairs we may be faced with. (And almost identical odds to the match chosen by our “hero”). From a percentage point of view we can calculate that the three outcomes will add-up to 102.8%. (Home 55.6%, Draw 25.0% and Away 22.2%).
To me this would be a game that could go any of three ways. The layer thinks so to. So where is the value bet? Our columnist being the clever chap he is didn’t take advantage of any of these prices but opted as his “value” bet for the 7/2 shot to win receiving a GOAL START at odds of 11/8.
Now I may be getting on in years but my brain shouted out, “WHAT, WHERE IS THERE ANY VALUE IN THAT BET?” I couldn’t believe what I was reading. Even the reasoning behind such a choice must be suspect. If you think a team will only win with a one goal start, surely you really mean it is likely to DRAW the game. Common sense dictates that if a one goal start means the team “wins” it’s match, the true result must have been a DRAW. I can’t look at it any other way. The match in question was a DRAW. So if our intrepid scribbler invested a mere tenner on his VALUE BET he would receive £23.75. Had he backed what he must have thought was the realistic outcome, his same tenner would have returned him £40.00.
I have seen this chap and others advise the same bet many times. How on earth do they consider it to be VALUE? I know there will be times when the team getting the goal start will actually WIN without the goal start but that is Sod’s Law. If that does happen, it means that the tipster has got stats all mixed up and has weighed up his options incorrectly and more importantly he’s backed a winner and LOST OUT where the odds are concerned.
What I am trying to get across is not that the tipsters (columnists) don’t know their job, it just that by using these, other than usual bets, they can write headlines announcing how wonderful they are when they do come up. Don’t put too much faith in newspaper correspondents because although they will shout their success from the rooftops, they quickly sweep their losses under the carpet. I can not remember a paper tipster shouting that he’s “had five losing tips on the trot”. Wouldn’t do his street cred much good, would it?
