Trainer Aidan O’Brien, master of the all-conquering Ballydoyle operation in Ireland, has won the Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes on eight previous occasions.
High Chaparral, Brian Boru, St Nicholas Abbey and Camelot have been among Ballydoyle’s previous winners in the Group 1 race, run over a mile for two-year-olds. It’s the last race of the UK Flat season to carry Group 1 status. Saxon Warrior, winner of this year’s 2000 Guineas, won it last year, giving rider Ryan Moore his first success in the race. But Moore is riding a couple of Ballydoyle runners in Australia this weekend so the stable’s three entries in this race will be partnered by Donnacha O’Brien, Wayne Lordan and Michael Hussey – all are seeking a first winning ride in the race.
Race History
The Vertem Futurity has been run since 1961 and has gone through various incarnations including the Timeform Gold Cup, Observer Gold Cup and Racing Post Trophy. It’s interesting that the new sponsors have gone back to the name Futurity given this is a race that is supposed to produce classic pointers for next season.
Despite Saxon Warrior’s win in the 2000 Guineas, that is not the classic most associated with the Futurity. Five winners have gone on to win the following year’s Derby and this is still an important trial but the final entries suggest that O’Brien’s trio aren’t going to have things all their own way – and then, of course, there is a decision to be made of which of the trio will be best suited to the test on Town Moor. Past experience tells us that jockey bookings are no guarantee of a pecking order when it comes to multiple Ballydoyle entries in big races but Donnacha’s presence on Magna Grecia is surely a pointer and one which bookmakers have taken as hard evidence.
Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes Recent Winners
| 1997 | Saratoga Springs | Michael Kinane | Aidan O’Brien | Michael Tabor | 1:40.36 |
| 1998 | Commander Collins | Jimmy Fortune | Peter Chapple-Hyam | Robert Sangster | 1:47.80 |
| 1999 | Aristotle | George Duffield | Aidan O’Brien | Sue Magnier | 1:45.00 |
| 2000 | Dilshaan | Johnny Murtagh | Sir Michael Stoute | Saeed Suhail | 1:45.87 |
| 2001 | High Chaparral | Kevin Darley | Aidan O’Brien | Tabor / Magnier | 1:45.39 |
| 2002 | Brian Boru | Kevin Darley | Aidan O’Brien | Sue Magnier | 1:46.01 |
| 2003 | American Post | Christophe Soumillon | Criquette Head-Maarek | Khalid Abdullah | 1:39.57 |
| 2004 | Motivator | Kieren Fallon | Michael Bell | Royal Ascot Racing Club | 1:41.62 |
| 2005 | Palace Episode | Neil Callan | Kevin Ryan | Theresa Marnane | 1:45.10 |
| 2006 | Authorized [c] | Frankie Dettori | Peter Chapple-Hyam | Al Homaizi / Al Sagar | 1:43.74 |
| 2007 | Ibn Khaldun | Kerrin McEvoy | Saeed bin Suroor | Godolphin | 1:37.62 |
| 2008 | Crowded House | Jamie Spencer | Brian Meehan | Reddam / Burrell / Harvey | 1:39.17 |
| 2009 | St Nicholas Abbey | Johnny Murtagh | Aidan O’Brien | Smith / Magnier / Tabor | 1:39.62 |
| 2010 | Casamento | Frankie Dettori | Michael Halford | Sheikh Mohammed | 1:37.03 |
| 2011 | Camelot | Joseph O’Brien | Aidan O’Brien | Smith / Magnier / Tabor | 1:38.58 |
| 2012 | Kingsbarns | Joseph O’Brien | Aidan O’Brien | Magnier / Tabor / Smith | 1:40.32 |
| 2013 | Kingston Hill | Andrea Atzeni | Roger Varian | Paul D Smith | 1:44.83 |
| 2014 | Elm Park | Andrea Atzeni | Andrew Balding | Qatar Racing & Kingsclere Racing | 1:43.82 |
| 2015 | Marcel | Andrea Atzeni | Peter Chapple-Hyam | Paul Hancock | 1:40.85 |
| 2016 | Rivet | Andrea Atzeni | William Haggas | The Starship Partnership | 1:37.08 |
| 2017 | Saxon Warrior | Ryan Moore | Aidan O’Brien | Smith / Magnier / Tabor | 1:40.12 |
Race Trends
- Eight of the last 12 winners started favourite and 10 of the last 12 were among the top three in the betting
- Nine of the last 12 winners had won their previous race and most had run within the last five weeks.
- Only one maiden in the last 12 years has been successful and all but two winners in that time had run over a mile previously
- Most recent winners had run at least twice
After winning the Acomb Stakes at York, Phoenix Of Spain (11/2 with William Hill) came up against Too Darn Hot in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster. He was clear second-best but doesn’t give the impression that the extra furlong will be to his benefit.
Too Darn Hot’s trainer John Gosden saddles TURGENEV and the Dubawi colt may just be good enough to give the Newmarket trainer his first win in the Futurity and Frankie Dettori his third.
The bare form of his two victories at Newcastle and Newmarket may fall short of the standard required to win a late-season Group 1 but the merit of his debut second over 7f at Doncaster last month should not be underestimated. That race was won by Royal Marine, successful in a Group 1 at Longchamp on Arc weekend. The third has also won since, as has the sixth, and the fourth and fifth went close subsequently. Frankie’s mount is bred to stay at least 1m2f and the general 4/1 is value against the Irish contingent.
Magna Grecia (13/8 with Betfred) finished ahead of his stablemates when second to Persian King in the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket but that form doesn’t match up to that of his predecessors. That doesn’t mean he won’t win but he’s too short in the betting given his full brother Invisible Ryker was always best over 7f.
Raakib Alhawa beat Dashing Willoughby (16/1 and 25/1 respectively with Ladbrokes) when making his debut in a conditions race at Newbury but the runner-up is now 3lb better off and entitled to get closer. Great Scot is a general 14/1 and would be interesting if the heavens opened. Kick On is the same odds but less exposed, though clearly has some improving to do and he looks the stable’s second string behind Turgenev.
Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes Current Best Odds
Magna Grecia 13/8, Turgenev 4/1, Phoenix Of Spain 11/2, Kick On and Great Scot 14/1, Circus Maximums and Raakib Alhawa 16/1, King Ottokar 20/1, Dashing Willoughby 25/1, Kuwait Currency 28/1, Western Australia 33/1
(Odds Correct at 3.15pm October 25)
