Wales v France Rugby World Cup Semi Final Betting Odds & Preview – 15.10.11

Wales on brink of first World Cup Final

Rugby France Wales
Rugby France Wales © GEPA pictures

Wales v France Rugby World Cup semi final betting sees Warren Gatland’s men standing on the brink of something pretty historic. It wasn’t too long ago that Wales were on a long winless streak, but thanks to team spirit and the throwing of caution to the wind, Wales are the last home nation standing in the 2011 Rugby World Cup. The Welsh started off the campaign with a narrow defeat against the defending Champions, South Africa, and despite playing well there wasn’t many expecting them to be in the semi final line up. Some may say that they were handed a helping hand as it panned out that they played Ireland in the quarter finals as opposed to Australia, but they still have had to take their chances, and how well they have done it. It was the Welsh defence, a nitty, gritty, stone wall of tackling and strength which got them through their test against Ireland in their first knockout match. The tackle count was high by Wales, as they fought back Ireland, who were looking the more threatening to settle down and take charge, even after Wales had gotten their early score in the bag after just three minutes on the clock. The first half defensive effort was what really set Wales up for the victory in the second half, after Ireland had finally responded with a Keith Earls try. Because of the amount of work which was put in, particularly by Wales lock Luke Charteris, it was the platform for them to take the Irish out of the game in the second half.  Wales managed to keep Ireland at bay and then  still had the forward capacity to run in three great tries to kill off the Irish. Low tackling really took the Irish off their feet, and therefore, without momentum to their game, the powerful marauding threat from Ireland was largely negated. What is perhaps the most telling about the victory for Wales, and perhaps one of the big indicators that they could be on for something major, is that they never tired against Ireland.

Even with all the defensive work they did, they never tired and we have seen this already in the World Cup against powerful sides like South Africa, Fiji and Samoa. Much was made of the harsh training camps that the Wales squad underwent in Poland as part of conditioning for the World Cup, and it is all paying off. Another major factor for Wales, is that unlike England, Ireland and South Africa, Wales took a very young squad to the World Cup. They weren’t afraid to put trust in their youngsters on the biggest stage of all, and being led by youngster Sam Warburton, and George North for example, the youngest player to partake in a Rugby World Cup knockout match, Wales have energy on their side. You can just reel the names off your tongue of the collective young talent making up a very, very strong whole at the moment. But, as always, for Wales v France Rugby Betting, it is good to take things into perspective and step away from all the hype. The fact of the matter is, that while Wales defended well against Ireland, particularly in the first half, they conceded a lot of possession and territory to the Irish, and no, Ireland didn’t play to their full intensity but the signs were there, that if a more cut throat side got at the Welsh backs, then the openings were there. South Africa punished Wales late on for defensive gaps left behind, and with the French on the horizon, their maverick unpredictability may have the craft to expose any gaps better than the aging Irish legs did. Wales are fleet of foot going forward, are brave, passionate and aggressive, but they are still not without their flaws. There is a tendency to over play the ball as well, something which they can’t do against the French.

Wales will be without the impressive Rhys Priestland for the semi final, after picking up an injury against Ireland. If the number ten doesn’t make it, then attention will turn to either Stephen Jones (who was not even on the bench against Ireland) or Mr Versatility James Hook, who looks to have gotten the nod to start. Priestland didn’t train earlier in the week, along with Luke Charteris, George North, Sam Warburton and Jamie Roberts, but all apart from Priestland are expected to be fully fit, and the injury to the preferred number 10 looks to be Wales only worry over selection. So now we must turn attention to France. They are not there just to make up the numbers. We were looking at the French, right back at the start of this year’s Six Nations to be a force in the Rugby World Cup. They haven’t been really. They have been erratic and unpredictable as always, and will reports of dissent and fall outs in the dressing room, they looked a beaten side, especially in their final Pool match defeat against Tonga. They couldn’t have played much worse then if they had planned it. But they responded with that uncharacteristic French flair to come out and blitz England in their quarter final match. It was the same players that had faced Tonga, but they simply buckled down with attitude. France were powerful, were mobile and looked pretty together as a unit, and were certainly more together than England were. They played the match with a lot of pride and were tactically sound right through the 80 minutes. Even when England started hitting back, there was never the feeling that the French were going to crumble. Which is an odd thing to say about France, who never usually respond when their backs are against the wall. Now coach Marc Lievremont, unpredictable as his team’s form most of the team, made a great comment about his side. He stated that France usually lose when they have fought their way with pride and anger through a match, which they did against England. There is usually big pitfall on the other side of something great which the French have done. Will it happen this time around?

This is what makes the French so dangerous. You never know what they are going to do, or what they are going to throw at you. It looks as if scrum half Dimitri Yachvili will make it for Wales v France Rugby World Cup semi final betting, after picking up an injury against England. There is a chance that he won’t be kicking though, so that duty will fall to Morgan Parra, who is playing out of position at Fly Half again. It looks as if France are sticking with the same fifteen which started against England. So they have continuity, and for the nation which has lost in the last two semi finals at the World Cup, there is a lot on the line for them. They have also played at Eden Park in the tournament, while the semi final will be Wales’ first visit there. It really should be a fascinatingly close match, and either side could lose it before kick off by being complacent or by thinking too far ahead to the final itself. Neither side really have a big advantage in the match, the scrums should be competitive and while Wales have try scoring capabilities all over the park, France’s Vincent Clerc is the tournament’s joint top try scorer at the moment, so he will have to be watched. France may edge the kicking a little (Stephen Jones had been Wales’ most accurate kicker, but he starts on the bench) and Wales, in losing Rhys Priestland, their top points scorer, means that they don’t have anyone inside the top ten of overall points scorers at the 2011 Rugby World Cup, while France have two, Yachvili and Clerc.

Wales v France Rugby Betting Head to Head Stats. France have a big advantage in recent meetings, winning six of the last seven. Lievremont has stated that Wales are playing the way they did in their successful 2008 Grand Slam triumph, and that has been the only time since 2005 that the Welsh have beaten the French. The overall head to head is close though, with 88 matches played in total, 43 won by Wales and 42 Won by France, with three drawn matches. You really can’t call this much closer. In total Wales have scored 1,297 points against France, just two more than they have conceded against them. So both sides average 14 points per match when they meet. The most recent match was a 28-9 victory on French soil for France in the Six Nations.

Wales v France Rugby Betting Odds
Wales to win: 8/11 at Bet365
Draw: 20/1 at Totesport
France to win: 5/4 at Bet365

Wales v France Rugby Handicap Betting
France +2 points for Evens at Bet365

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