Wales v Samoa Rugby World Cup Betting Odds – 18.09.11

Welsh looking to match Samoa power

Sports Betting

Wales will come up against the power of Samoa in their second 2011 Rugby World Cup match on September 18th, as the Welsh look for their first win. Wales came out of their first match, the big Pool D clash against South Africa, licking their wounds after a narrow victory. All Wales had to show for their efforts was a bonus point in the 17-16 defeat in which they gave the defending Champions a run for their money. Wales are starting to look as if they are piecing together a very good side for the future. They are not there just yet, but after their showing against South Africa, they surely have to be instilled with even more confidence. They were confident enough to throw the ball around against South Africa, who started to show their aging legs a bit. This was a South Africa side who had just beaten the All Blacks in the Tri Nations, and are out to defend their World Cup title. But it was a cruel blow in the end for Wales, who stood toe to toe with the powerful South Africans and actually forged out a decent game plan. They will have to try and contend with more power on Sunday, as the big Samoa side will be ready with their strong running and hitting. Samoa are actually quite a threat to Wales here in Pool D, and with the Samoans running up a big win over Namibia to get their 2011 Rugby World Cup started, this is expected to be a close match. If Pool D pans out as expected now with South Africa winning the group, the Wales v Samoa clash could be the big crunch one for second place and a spot in the quarter finals. So this is a match which Wales need to win, but will have bad memories of facing Samoa in the World Cup, losing to them in both the 1991 and 1999 editions of the premier Rugby Union tournament in the world.

Samoa are big and powerful and should make a big impact in the scrum. That is where Wales really, really need to step things up and keep their composure. They can’t afford to cheaply lose ball to Samoa in that area, they have to make the Southern Hemisphere side work for all they can get. Because Samoa are a physical side, they may not have the big pace, but they do run well and have power in smashing through the line. Samoa beat Australia earlier in the year (though the Wallabies didn’t send out a full strength team) and will naturally be targeting Wales as their crunch match as well. If Samoa win this, then Wales could be a in a bit of difficulty, although Samoa will still have to play South Africa. Because this is expected to be quite close, there is not going to be great margins in your handicap betting to look at, and so we need to look at the head to head situation. The two nations have met seven times before, with Wales winning four and Samoa winning three. Tight there, but Wales have won the last two encounters, the most recent a 17-13 win in November of 2009. A 50-6 Welsh win in 2000 ended a losing streak of three matches against the Samoans. The average points difference between the two sides when they meet is 7 points in Wales’ favour. Wales average 25 points per game against Samoa and Samoa average 18 points against Wales. So Samoa have caused Wales some grief before on the big stage, and is there more to come? For our Wales v Samoa Rugby World Cup betting tip, we are going to lean in the favour of Wales for a narrow margin.

Wales v Samoa Rugby World Cup Betting Odds
Wales to win: 4/11 at SportingBet
Draw: 25/1 at Bet365
Samoa to win: 3/1 at Paddy Power

Handicap: Wales -8 Evens at Bet365