WHAT DO YOU KNOW? (About Football Betting) – part 2.
To be successful with your football betting, you MUST know your markets. There are numerous markets to choose from. The successfull punter will probably restrict himself to perhaps just half a dozen.. TRY TO SPECALIZE. You’re much more likely to end up on the winning side if you restrict your markets to as few as possible. It’s your choice and also your wallet.
The obvious first stop is MATCH ODDS. If you aren’t aware of the ins and outs of this market buy one of the many books readily available. They are very basic start with but will give a good grounding and lead you to more interesting and, hopefully, lucrative bets. With match odds, or in fact any event were prices are offered, you have a choice. the tried and well liked STARTING PRICE or DECIMAL ODDS. As a seasoned SP manager and settler, I doubted to veracity of anything I wasn’t used to working with. Have no fear, DECIMAL ODDS are much more USER FRIENDLY.
However do make sure that you know exactly what the odds you are taking represent. It’s easy with full odds. ( 20/1 20//1 25/1 etc). But do swat up on 11/10 6/4 and all the fractional odds.
HALF-TIME / FULL-TIME BETTING
For this market it really does mean you have to study.
The obvious chooses are the DEAD CERT home side. CHELSEA, INTER MILAN, BARCELONA, etc.
The only drawback here is the prices on offer. For most games the GOOD THING playing at home will be ODDS-ON, even for Half-Time/Full-Time result.
The way to tackle this problem is to look for the SLOW-STARTERS. Whilst Home/Home might be offered @ 2.0. Draw/Home will usually be available at round 5.5/6.0. Find the team that is prepared to soften-up the opposition in the first half and then take them apart after the interval. The obvious place to look some such teams is in the GOALSCORING Charts. Those slow-starters are there for all to see.
There are only nine combinations for this market.
Not surprisingly the best perfomer is HOME/HOME.
Using last seasons PREMIERSHIP results things worked out like this.
HOME/HOME 129 33.4%
HOME/DRAW 19 5.0%
HOME/AWAY 5 1.3%
DRAW/HOME 52 13.7%
DRAW/DRAW 60 15.8%
DRAW/AWAY 31 8.1%
AWAY/HOME 12 3.1%
AWAY/DRAW 17 4.5%
AWAY/AWAY 55 14.5%
What do these figures tell us? It’s fairly obvious to see that a team leading at HOME at half-time is most unlikely to lose. It will happen only ONCE in 78 games.
Another way to look at it is, wait for the half-time score and if the home side is ahead LAY THE VISITORS. The odds will be on the short side but a return is virtually guaranteed.
The DRAW/HOME and DRAW/DRAW similarly holdout possibilities for laying the AWAY side once the half-time score is known. Here the odds on offer will be more acceptable but the chance of an away win, just that bit more likely.
AWAY teams leading at half-time won almost two thirds of their games. In all there were only 84 matches where the away was ahead at the interval. As
home teams always seem to hold sway, even when trailing, the odds usually available about the away team to go all the way are often more than acceptable. As expected, Chelsea and Manchester United were amongst those sides to do well away. They were successful in both halves of away games 14 times between them. 8 of those going to Chelsea. A surprise packet in this market was Aston Villa who, like United won/won 6 games.
Hopefully there is some food for thought here.
FIRST GOALSCORER / ANYTIME GOALSCORER BETTING
As can be expected all of these markets are weighted in the bookies favour.
First Goalscorer odds don’t in my opinion ever offer VALUE.
Take the upcoming game between Liverpool and Chelsea. Drogba is around 4/1 and Torres about 5/1.( 5/1 about someone so out of form, too). Backing either of these two can’t, for me, be justified. Not when you consider the true odds. 22 players on the field (forget possible subs), plus of course the bookies favourite, NO GOALSCORER. So the real odds about the first goal scorer is 22/1. This is the true odds in every match. How easy it is to make your choice, watch him hit the post, have shots deflected and much more. Then there comes about a set piece a rebound to the edge of the area and Joe Full–Back gets on the score sheet. Check how often your clubs leading scorer actually is FIRST GOALSCORER over the season. You’ll be surprised.
To me a much better betting offering is the ANYTIME GOALSCORER.
With this bet, you are not throwing caution to the wind. All the crazy happenings that can take place over the FIRST GOALSCORER market don’t count for much when your choice has 90 minutes to find the net.
The odds in this market will obviously be shorter but your chance of picking out a winning player over 90 minutes is much higher.
CORRECT SCORES BETTING
As I’ve written previously this market is heavily in favour of the layers. Just how can you truly evaluate the possible score before a game starts, when there are so many imponderables leaves me cold.
The recent Man. City v Arsenal game is a prime example. To the average fan a good prospect for a draw or a one goal win either way. We all know what happened. A headstrong tackle , a RED CARD and an eagerly await tooth and nail match goes to pot.
If you are tempted to go for this market, try some small stake doubles. Check the HEAD to HEADS and find a couple of games with a history on tight finishes. It’s a more likely way to take some cash off the bookie.
There are many more markets which will bear scrutiny. Some which are well known and others which appear to be lost except to the most diligent of punters. Something to look forward to sorting out shortly.
