WHAT DO YOU KNOW? (About Football Betting) – part 3.
Knowing your markets is a must.
Looking at the recent Arsenal v Newcastle match there were some interesting figures to juggle.
The Half-time/Full-time market offered Arsenal @ 1.88 and Newcastle a 25.00.
The alternative market offered Arsenal to Win both halves 2.86 Newcastle to do the same 12.00
Now there is not a lot to choose between the two markets but given the choice it would have to be Arsenal @ 2.86 as the value bet. I know that they lost but VALUE is were you will find your enduring profit.
Being able to choose one market over the other gives you a better chance of finding that VALUE.
Other markets sets were you need to make a choice are were bookings are concerned.
You can choose between BOOKING ODDS / BOOKINGS INDEX.
Both these markets are very different in the way they value "CARDS".
BOOKING ODDS value a yellow at 2 pts and a red at 5pts. Their "spread" is 5 pts or less / 6 to 8 pts / 9 or more pts.
On occasions there may be slight variations.
BOOKING INDEX have greater values on the "CARDS". A yellow is 10 pts and a red is 25pts. Their "spread" of SELL /BUY starts at a given point, say 70. It then moves according to volume of money.
Each market treats 2 yellows becoming an automatic red, as 1 yellow plus 1 red.
Which of these two markets give the best or value? That’s hard to tell until it’s applied to a specific match.
The problem here is to choose between a known profit/loss before kick-off or leaving it in the lap of the gods.
Although you can apply a LIMIT on your Index bet.
In both these markets it will pay to check some stats before you make a choice. Is there a "history" between the two teams?
What about the referee? Is he a "card waver"? Both things need to be taken into account.
The corners market holds a fascination for some punters. it really must be stressed that prior knowledge of this little gem is VITAL.
The market is usually played around PLUS or MINUS 11.0 corners. Always check tho’ just in case there is your bookie has his own ideas.
In years gone by, this would have almost always been a PLUS market. Some of you may remember when teams fielded FIVE, yes FIVE forwards. Now it’s usually an abysmal ONE. No outright attacking now. More than usual it’s counter-attacking. So if you can find two sides which happen to have a couple of attacking mid-fielders, these are the teams to back to go over the 11 mark.
The dedicated "CORNER PLAYER" is more likely to go over to the SPREAD market. This is were the money is really made. However you REALLY MUST know your stats.
There is also the CORNER MATCH. A straight bet as to which side will win the most corners. Once again, team selections will govern your choice.
Yet another market which is growing in popularity is the ASIAN HANDICAP. This worth an indepth look, so I will keep it for a later day.
Now the UNDERS/OVERS markets. There are actually four levels to these markets. 1-5 , 2-5, 3-5, and 4-5. To take part in any of them you must know your scoring teams and those which find it hard to hit the net.
Last season the Premiership did very well for OVERS compared to previous seasons. However currently things appear to be getting back to normal. Before kick-off today, Unders/Overs were split 50/50.
So obviously you need to know which teams you can rely on. Go back and check the HEAD to HEADS. This is a valuable source.
My favoured bet is OVER 2.5 with INSURANCE.
LAY the DRAW. This has been flogged to death over the years. However, there are many variations which still prove to be profitable. To take advantage if these you need GOOD JUDGEMENT and SOLID MONEY MANAGEMENT. A match level at Half-time should be offering well under 3 to LAY. This does allow a little leeway. Once again you MUST know your teams scoring abilities. or maybe one of them has a habit of conceding as the game goes on.
Even better, in my opinion is waiting until the 70th minute before deciding to bet. By this time you should be looking to LAY at 2.0 or even LESS.
Just keep your stake calculator handy. ‘Cos you have to be quick to get your BACK bet on. Just in case.
DRAW NO BET. Self explanatory.
This bet does allow you to remove that little bit of uncertainty from the result.You hope.. Of course you suffer ODDS-WISE, There again, a profit is a profit.
Unfortunately, one losing bet will set you back quite some way with your PROFIT and LOSS figures.
This market has an almost identical twin. Namely DOUBLE CHANCE. In this case you are on a winner just so long as your selection doesn’t lose.
Once again tho’, the odds offered are reflected in the chances of your selection being a winning bet.
The use of PRICE COMPARISON sites for both of these betting opportunities will help keep you keep your profits to a maximum.
Yet another tempting market is TOTAL GOALS.
Your only problem here is that you need to avoid 0 – 0 if you opt for GOAL or MORE. Of course the big problem then is the price on offer. Even is a closely contested match say, Inter v AC Milan you are only likely to get something in the range of 1.1 to 1.15. Obviously avoiding the dreaded 0 – 0 when odds are this tight, IS A MUST.
It’s only when you go as high as 3 GOALS or MORE that you get odds more likely to be in your favour. Often you will get around 2.2 for this bet. Incidentally, OVER 2.5 goals will usually be on offer at the same price.
So those of you who are minded to trade might find this useful.
Hopefully these musings will be of use in your battle with the bookie.
BET SENSIBLY.
