What do you know about Football Betting – Part 5

Football Betting

WHAT DO YOU KNOW? (About football betting) – part 5.


It’s like being back at school again. Remember the first time you were faced with them? it would have been easier to get water from a stone.
However the percentages I’m going to look at will, maybe, help us over the “funny” results we’ve been getting in this seasons Premiership.
We’ve seen some turn-ups in the Prem already this season. Perhaps the biggest being Chelsea’s collapse at home to Sunderland. Before that we saw Blackpool win at Anfield and West Brom at the Emirates.

the biggest question of all is “Why are these odds-on shots” failing?
If I knew the answer to that I’d soon be minted but I do know that these results are going against the normal trend .
The bookies must be cleaning up as these odds-on beauties fail.
The “normal” range of odds before we see anything out of the usual is beyond 1.01 to 2.75. In the premiership this season the anomolies start much higher in the odds chart. The first non-performing group is 1.26 to 1.50. The actual percentage of success at this level is just 33.3. then comes 1.76 to 2.00. Only slightly better at 37.50%. Now the expectations for these two groups are, 60 to 72 % and 45 to 51%. These figures
quite alarming for favourite backers. We can normally expect to see much better returns that we are seeing so far.

This month alone there have been some eyebrow raisers, (seven really stand out) ranging in odds from 1.24 to 1.68.
What’s the answer? If ever there was a $64,000,000 question that is it. Unfortunately there is no magic formula. We have to return to our old friend, Study. And more study. The answers may well lie in historical results. Or in something even more mysterious.


Streaks don’t often get much “air time”. However research shows that they have a habit of making themselves felt when least expected.
There’s a book called Football science which devotes a chapter to the subject under the guise of law of Averages.
The author maintains that it’s perfectly possible to deduce when a STREAK is due to end. I’m not so sure but his train of thought makes sense to him. Obviously.

What i am looking at, is using the percentages, above and the various streaks that are “in-play” as a means of forecasting how the streaks will carry on.
While the type and number of streaks is almost endless I’ll look at the most likely to be of any use to the average punter.
By and large the most likely of streaks to run into any large number of games is the HOME WIN. I’ve seen runs of 30+ consecutive wins in the past. This isn’t quite the norm but the HOME WIN does tend to engender large runs.

This season being what it is in the premiership the longest winning run at present is the “huge” number of 4. I don’t think this will remain so low once normality, whatever that might be, returns. Just be prepared to find some teams running up fairly impressive figures.

Another which will run into large figures is, NO LOSSES. Similarly, NO DRAWS often runs to double figures. Just to be awkward, DRAWS tend to be of a more limited nature.
Other streaks worth thinking about are GOALS FOR and GOALS CONCEDED. When you look at them they’re all just numbers in a table or chart, but they can be a pathway to increasing your winnings.

Try combining the information in the percentages with that available about the streaks and I’m sure you’ll find them a valuable contribution to your winner-finding techniques.