Who will be walking off with the honour of being the top goalscorer at Euro 2016, the one who will then be awarded the Golden Boot? Four years ago in Poland & Ukraine there were six players who ended the tournament with a joint top-scoring haul of just three goals. Among them were the likes of Fernando Torres, Mario Mandzukic and Cristiano Ronaldo. It was Torres who was awarded the title though because he came up with an assist as well during the competition, whereas none of the others did.
So it was a tight scrap for the Golden Boot at the European Championships last time out, so who will do it this time around? If you are looking at betting on the market then you are going to find it a market which is packed full of tempting big prices. So who do you plump for out of all that? Well of course it is a little harder to call the Golden Boot winner than the outright winning team because anyone can pop up on the day, net a hat trick in a single game and that be enough to walk off with the title. So it’s a really hit and miss market and hence the big prices.
Euro 2016 Golden Boot Favourites
Thomas Mueller, Cristiano Ronaldo and Antoine Griezmann are the other three players heading into the tournament who are under double figures in the Euro 2016 Golden Boot market at online betting site Bet365. Muller and Ronaldo are 7/1 joint favourites with Griezmann at 8/1. So those are the three market leaders and let’s have a look at them.
Thomas Muller: He was the top scorer the 2010 World Cup and he went close four years later at Brazil 2014 when he came home second to James Rodriguez. Muller is just a beast and so hard to keep quiet, although he is one of the players that you don’t actually notice a lot in a game until the ball arrives at his feet or on his head. He’s just always there at the right time and no other forward in the world finds and uses space like he does. A lot of Germany’s good work will go through him, so he should get plenty of chances.
Cristiano Ronaldo: The great Portuguese man pretty much carried his country at the last European championships, but his country likes to play a tighter, more conservative game than the likes of Germany do, so that may hamper his chances of winning the Golden Boot. The Real Madrid man had a subdued qualification campaign for Euro 2016, but still netted the five goals along the way. He’s likely to be up there, but the team he’s in isn’t going to afford him as much chances as some of the other main candidates.
Antoine Griezmann: Atletico Madrid’s star forward has had a brilliant domestic season for his club. Can he turn that into success out at Euro 2016 for France? He has the finishing touch that’s for sure and with Karim Benzema not being eligible for the tournament, Griezmann could get his big chance on the international stage. A bit of an unkown here at this level compared to Muller and Ronaldo, but a decent each way shot for sure.
Euro 2016 Golden Boot Considerations
There are couple of things that you will want to take into consideration for your Euro 2016 Golden Boot predictions. Firstly, not only do you have to consider the quality of the player, but you need to look at group stage opposition, health and fitness and how far that player’s nation is likely to go in the tournament. For Example, if you are looking at Thomas Muller then he could get somewhat easy-ish games against the Ukraine and Northern Ireland in the group stages to get some goals on the board. Whereas Sweden’s Zlatan Ibrahimovic has tough games against Belgium, Italy and the Republic of Ireland to contend with at the group level.
Probably the player who will benefit the most from ‘easy” games in the group stage will be Griezmann, whose France side faces Romania, Albania and Switzerland and that could set the Frenchman up for some good goal scoring success at Euro 2016. The other factor is the overall strength of a nation, Germany is expected to go alot further in the competition than for example Portugal, so that hands an advantage to Muller over Ronaldo, because he will have more games. Take this into consideration.
Of course, as a caveat to all of that, this is one of those markets, like at Euro 2012, which can spring a surprise. Russia’s Alan Dzagoev went on a group stage tear with three goals in three group stage games, but then Russia failed to get out of the group stage. But still he was the joint-top scorer at the end of the day. It can all be up in the air if one player has a great game or two.
Other Euro 2016 Golden Boot Contenders
The cream of Europe’s strikers will be at France 2016 and there are other tempting propositions around. England’s Harry Kane has really split the market and he is in at 12/1 with Bet365 and as big as 18/1 with Ladbrokes. The England man had a brilliant domestic season with Tottenham, so can he carry that over to the European Championships and fire england to success?
Poland’s Robert Lewandowski was the top scorer in Euro 2016 qualifying and should be well in the mix and is an appealing 16/1 price. The Poles were pretty soils through qualification as a whole and should make progress in the tournament and if they do, it will be on the back of the goals that the Bayern Munich striker delivers. If he gets an early goal in the tournament, you would back him to go on a tear as a confident Lewandowski can deliver.
The Rest
Those really are the big options you are looking at. There is a lot of scoring power around still as we haven’t touched on like Romelu Lukaku, Diego Costa and Olivier Giroud. But none of them have that kind of prolific feeling about them that will deliver on a consistent basis to get to the Euro 2016 Golden Boot title. As a big outside shot, Spain’s Paco Alcacer could be worth an each way punt at a price of 33/1. Spain are lacking a genuine number nine and Diego Costa really hasn’t ever fit the bill. Young Alcacer is a great prospect and if he gets a run could notch up a few for the defending champions.
European Championship Golden Boot stats
The thing about Euro 2016 is that it is a bigger tournament than has ever been played before so there is an extra round, which could have a bearing on how many goals are netted by the top goalscorer. Looking back at the last five editions which have had sixteen teams competing then, the average Golden Boot winner has averaged 4.6 goals. With the extra game this year, you are probably going to be looking around the five goal mark for the Euro 2016 top goalscorer.
Spain (as a nation) have been the top scorers at the last two European Championships, with twelve goals in 2008 and in 2012. England and the Czech Republic tied on 10 goals at Euro 2004, with France and the Netherlands jointly netting 13 goals at Euro 2000. If you like your match averages then there has been an average of 2.48 goals per game in two of the last three (2004, 2008) editions of the European Championships, the other (2012) had a slightly less average of 2.45 goals per game.
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Michel Platini is still the record holder with nine goals scored in European Championship matches. Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Cristiano Ronaldo are on six each, so could catch him. Ibrahimovic incidentally is the only man to have scored more than one goal at three different European Championships.
Euro 2016 Golden Boot Betting Odds & Predictions
Thomas Muller 7/1, Cristiano Ronaldo 7/1, Antoine Griezmann 8/1, Robert Lewandowski 16/1, harry Kane 12/1, Romelu Lukaku 12/1, Olivier Giroud 20/1, Diego Costa 25/1, Anthony Martial 25/1, Alvaro Morata 24/1, bar 33/1.
Euro Golden Boot Prediction
Thomas Muller would get our nod. He is just so prolific and has proven time and time again at the highest stage that he can deliver the goods. The German shouldn’t be far from winning it, but as an each way shot, Robert Lewandowski looks massively appealing value. He doesn’t need many games to produce a hatful of goals and could easily be in the mix.
