New sponsors William Hill are currently best odds on a number of the 10 declared runners in, to use its shorter name, the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury this Saturday, but not on favourite Oldgrangewood.
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Oldgrangewood is undoubtedly the improver in this Grade 3 handicap having won three of his four starts over fences. He was brought down in the other when going well so deserves a crack at this higher level. He beat a back-to-form Dresden with something to spare last time at Wetherby but Henry Oliver’s charge is now 8lb better off I can’t work out why the latter is a general 12/1 as compared to the best 11/4 available for Dan Skelton’s runner.
Greatwood Gold Cup Trends
Recent seasons has seen this race dominated by trainer Paul Nicholls, who has won it five times in the last seven years. His entry this year, Vibrato Valtat, caries top weight but is a former Grade 2 winner and it’s more than feasible that the application of blinkers will help him sustain his effort all the way to the line. He is available at 7/1 and looks a solid each-way bet at those odds.
All recent winners have been aged between six and eight so that slightly puts me off Thomas Crapper (10/1 with William Hill). The bottom weight is, however, starting to look very well handicapped and it would be no surprise to see him pop up in a similar race before the end of the campaign.
Only two of the last seven winners have carried less than 11st and it’s difficult to see veterans Tornado In Milan (a general 12/1) and Shadows Lengthen (25/1 with most bookmakers) being good enough in this company. Vic De Touzaine (11/2 with the sponsors) made a promising reappearance at Wincanton but he has produced all of his best form on heavy going.
HOLLYWOODIEN looks the value at a general 8/1 to give trainer Tom Symonds and jockey James Davies a rare big-race success. Considering his most recent victory was over a similar distance at Wetherby, he did well to finish close up over 2m at Sandown last time behind the classy Garde La Victoire. That run proves he can be competitive off his current mark.
Greatwood Gold Cup Current Best Odds
Oldgrangewood (11/4), Vic De Touzaine (11/2), Vibrato Valtat (7/1), Hollywoodien (8/1), Thomas Crapper and O Maonlai (10/1), Dresden, More Buck’s and Tornado In Milan (12/1), Shadows Lengthen (25/1)
