The field of 32 that started the 2018 World Cup has been cut in half as we move ahead to the weekend and the start of the round of 16. It has been a strange tournament with none of the big guns really bringing their best to the table so far and we have already had a major casualty with the reigning World Champions Germany shockingly finishing bottom of their group after heading into the tournament as the odds-on favourites to win group F.
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The absence of Germany coupled with Argentina’s failure to win their group means that there is a good chance now of an underdog coming through the bottom half of the draw and making an impact. Here are our World Cup 2018 last 16 predictions and betting odds as we take a look at each of the eight games.
World Cup 2018 Outright Winner Odds*
Brazil 7/2
Spain 4/1
Belgium 13/2
France 8/1
Croatia 10/1
Argentina 12/1
Uruguay 22/1
Colombia 22/1
Portugal 25/1
Switzerland 33/1
Russia 66/1
Mexico 66/1
Sweden 66/1
Denmark 80/1
Japan 125/1
* (betting odds taken from June 28th, 2018 at 9:34 pm)
Uruguay v Portugal
Uruguay had a slow start to the tournament edging both Egypt and Saudi Arabia by a one-zero scoreline. But they got better as they thumped Russia three-nil in their final group stage match. This is likely to be a long war of attrition against Portugal who were not without their struggles in the group stage. That having been said that they looked on course to actually beat Spain to the top spot until things fell apart in injury time in the final round of group stage matches for them. You have two sides here who both know how to defend and the difference on the day we can see is the superior firepower of Uruguay coming to the fore. We are backing Uruguay at 9/5 odds* (betting odds taken from June 28th, 2018 at 9:34 pm)
France v Argentina
The French are one of the front-runners to win the tournament ahead of the big kick-off, however, they have failed to really get themselves going and they go into a tough round of 16 tie against Argentina. France have moved to 8/1 odds to win the 2018 World Cup* (betting odds taken from June 28th, 2018 at 9:34 pm). As disappointing as France have been, Argentina have been even worse as they have produced some real stinkers of performances. Only a winner 4 minutes from time in their final group stage game against Nigeria got the Albiceleste through to the round of 16. They have such a poor midfield that against France, who are not even playing well, the South Americans could well come up short.
Brazil v Mexico
Brazil are another of the big guns who have not performed at all well during the 2018 World Cup. They laboured to a 1-1 draw against Switzerland in their first game and then laboured again as they needed stoppage time input to beat Costa Rica. While they were comfortable in beating Serbia and final group stage match there has to be better to come from them and clearly, even their talisman Neymar is not at his best. Mexico caused the upset of the tournament in beating Germany in their opening match and they followed up with a solid win over South Korea. But El Tri lost all of their momentum when they were crushed three-nil by Sweden in the final round of group stage matches. That was the first time at the tournament we saw them lose their way and we can’t avoid Brazil progressing in this fixture at 8/15 odds* (betting odds taken from June 28th, 2018 at 9:34 pm).
Belgium v Japan
This is just about the most lopsided round of 16 tie as Belgium are odds-on favourites to win through to the quarter-finals. Belgium won all three of their group stage matches finishing ahead of England. The Red Devils have tremendous scoring threats in them and they are likely to overpower Japan pretty comfortably. Japan have exceeded all expectations in getting out of the group stage and after losing their final game against Poland, they became the first side ever to progress through the Fair Play rule having collected fewer yellow cards than Senegal who they finished the group stage with an even record with.
Spain v Russia
Spain looked a pretty hot ticket going into the tournament and we were surprised at how poorly their defence has played in the competition so far. They have dropped defensive howlers all over the place and look anything but organised across their back line. That is not stopping us from backing the Red Fury at 8/13 odds* (betting odds taken from June 28th, 2018 at 9:34 pm) to get the better of the host nation in this tie. Russia exploded into life beating Egypt and Saudi Arabia comfortably but when they had their first first real test of the tournament they collapsed in a heap losing 3-0 against Uruguay. The Russians may not have the qualities in them to expose what is a poor Spain defence.
Croatia v Denmark
Undoubtedly one of the star teams of the tournament so far has been Croatia. They went into the event as one of the dark horses and people are surely taking notice of them now especially after beating Argentina so convincingly by a 3-0 scoreline. Croatia just look so solid and they have a fantastic midfield and at the end of the day even though this is likely to be a low scoring tight game they should have enough to get past Denmark. The Danes have nine clean sheets in their last 11 games and are not going to bow out of the tournament without a fight, but they just lack the quality going forward to match up to Croatia. We see this one stretching beyond 90 min though.
Sweden v Switzerland
Either Sweden, Switzerland, Columbia or England will be in the semi finals of this summer’s World Cup. Not many punters would have expected that but we are here because Germany dropped the ball so badly in losing in the group stage. This should be a closely fought all European tie but we have been more impressed with the grit and determination of Swede. Even though they have been relying on long balls to scrape their way through and even though the Swedes are 21/10 underdogs to win this match, we like that value in our 2018 World Cup last 16 betting odds.
Colombia v England
On paper, this was the worst draw that England could have ended up within the second round of the 2018 World Cup. However, while they could have had an easier round of 16 game against Japan if they had won their group over Belgium, the benefit of getting past Columbia now in the round of 16 is big. There is going to be either Sweden or Switzerland waiting for them quarter-finals instead of potentially Brazil.
Colombia have been hard to read as they played most of their opening game (which was a loss against Japan) with 10 men. But they looked brilliant in thumping Poland three-nil in their second match before collecting a 1-0 win over Senegal in their final game in which neither particularly were looking for the win from the off. England sent out their second string against Belgium in their final group stage match and it is hard to get a read of just where they are at and we can see this one going to extra time. But at the end of the day, we’re going to back England to qualify.
