Even though tennis players head off to their winter break pretty late in the calendar year, there’s not a lot of time to rest really. The new seasons steps in during the first week of 2016 so players are right back at it. It is a massive challenge as well, because just two weeks into the new year, starting on January 18th, is the first Grand Slam of the season. yes, the 2016 Australian Open is right here with us and it is time to take look a look at a preview for the WTA side of things.
Serena Williams is back to defend her Australian Open title. It’s not the first time that she has been in this position heading back to Melbourne Park, but only once before has she actually managed to successfully defend the title in the following year. So do that give some wiggle room for one of the other players in the field to make a run at the title? Maybe so when you consider that there have been four different winners in the last five editions of the famous trophy.
WTA Australian Open 2016 Favourite
It is Serena Williams who is WTA Australian Open 2016 Favourite. No surprise there then of course. With three of last season’s four Grand Slam titles to her name, she is the one to beat still in the game. She is trading as 15/8 outright favourite to claim what would be here seventh Australian Open title. If she does go all the way again this year then it would be her 20th Major Singles title, so impressive.
She beat out Maria Sharapova in last season’s final, which wasn’t a great surprise considering the immense head to head lead that Williams has over the Russian (18-2). You have to question who can stop Williams when one of the best fighters on the WTA can’t get close to Williams. However, she has suffered some big upsets in recent appearances as the Australian Open. 2012 and 2014 saw her crash out at the fourth round stage (versus Ekaterina Makarova and Ana Ivanovic respectively), while 2013 she didn’t make it past the quarter finals, getting dumped out at that stage by fellow American Sloane Stephens.
So it’s unexpected defeats more than high-profile exits against other contenders which seems to trip Williams up the most. Frankly if she gets to the semi finals stage of the competition then you don’t expect anything but for the title to end up in her hands. She has never lost an Australian Open final and with having won four of the last five Grand Slam titles on offer, she’ll still take some stopping in Melbourne.
WTA Australian Open 2016 Main Contenders
Victoria Azarenka 6/1
Two Australian Open Final Appearances, Two Titles
Out of the main contenders, only Azarenka looks most capable of taking down Williams (not considering the upsets against low-ranked players that Williams has suffered recently at Melbourne). But that requires the Belarusian being on top of her game. She was working her way back to the top last year after illness and injury set backs but she has a good record at Melbourne Park nonetheless with those two titles. She only made it to the fourth round last season as she was ousted by a gusty Dominika Cibulkova.
So even with looking at Azarenka as Williams’ main challenger at the US Open, she has failed to beat the American at the last four attempts. Because of Azarenka’s absence from the game last term it meant that she was a dangerous, lower-seeded floater in the field and clashed into Williams early in both the French Open and Wimbledon and would have done so at the Australian Open if she had won her fourth round match. With a better draw and a positive start to the new season, she could make her way to the final four. Avoiding Williams is paramount as Williams leads Azarenka 17-3 in the head to head.
Maria Sharapova 7/1
Four Australian Open Finals, One Title
The Russian can be so frustrating at times. After all the defeats that she has suffered against Williams in her career, you would think that she could come up with something different to try and beat the American. She can’t seem to find her step against Williams at all, just can’t get in the games and stay there. When Sharapova doesn’t have her first serve working for her, suddenly she can look fragile.
Still, you will be hard pushed to find anyone who digs deeper than Sharapova when her back is against the wall. She won the 2008 Australian Open over Ana Ivanovic but lost two of her other final appearances in Melbourne against Serena Williams and one against Azarenka. She has a Career Grand Slam of Major titles but since 2009 she has only claimed the French Open title. She has less of a shot than Azarenka does because such a great player should be winning Slams more consistently, which suggests a blockage somewhere.
Simona Halep 9/1
No Australian Open Final Appearances
This is where we will probably contradict what was said about Azarenka being the only one capable of taking down Williams. Help, out of the main contenders and here is why. In contests against Williams, Halep has looked far less overawed by the stature of her opponent than when say Sharapova or Azarenka goes up against Williams. Halep trails Williams 6-1 in the head to head, yes, but has pushed the American very hard, just because of her aggressive approach to the game.
A lot was expected in last season’s Grand Slam from Halep but it didn’t quite pan out that way until she made the semi finals at the US Open. The Romanian has made the quarter finals in the last two seasons at the Australian Open and would expect her to at least be there again. She’ll be running off less pressure, less expectations this time around after her brilliant 2014 season felt flat in 2015. That will make her more dangers and looks a tremendous each way wager to go all the way and claim her first Slam. It has to happen sooner or later that she’ll put everything together.
Petra Kvitova 12/1
No Australian Open Final Appearances
Usually a dangerous floater in the field and has had her issues with confidence and fitness. Her best ever run at Melbourne Park was a semi final appearance in 2012 and she has only made it past the third round on one other occasion. Kvitova, an awkward left hander with a lot of height advantage, should be doing better than that. She is a two-time Wimbledon Champion of course so has the moxy to go all the way in Grand Slams.
However, her hard court record in Slams in terrible really with just two quarter final appearances and one semi final from fifteen appearances combined at the Australian and US Open during her career. Really you would expect her to be more of a consistent quarter finals at Slams, but she’s not, so it’s a long stretch to see her go all the way.
Stats to consider for 2016 Australian Open betting
Looking at the final stages of last season’s Australian Open, there was a definite trend going on through the matches. Of the seven matches from the quarter finals onwards at the 2015 Australian Open, only one of them went to three sets. So it is worth, when the latter stages of the 2016 edition come around that you seriously consider the 2-0 option in set betting for the matches that come up, in particular where Williams is concerned.
Williams dropped sets in both the third round and fourth round last season (both the opening sets against Elina Svitolina and Garbine Muguruza) then cruised through from the quarter final stages. Williams knows how to make it work when the business end of things comes along at Melbourne Park.
Dropped sets haven’t been a big occurrence in recent finals of the Australian Open. Of the last ten finals contested at the Australian Open, only three of them have gone to three sets. Of Serena Williams’ six Australian Open finals though, things have been split evenly with three of them having gone over three sets. Three of her last four Australian Open titles though have been straight-sets victories.
WTA 2016 Australian Open Winner Odds
Serena Williams 15/8, Victoria Azarenka 6/1, Maria Sharapova 7/1, Simona Halep 9/1, Petra Kvitova 12/1, Garbine Muguruza 20/1, Belinda Bencic 20/1, Eugenie Bouchard 20/1, Madison Keys 25/1, Caroline Wozniacki 28/1, 40/1 bar
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