With the Mutua Madrid tournament in the bag over the weekend, with Kiki Bertens surprising Simona Halep in the final, it’s straight back into top-level clay court action this week. The season moves on to Rome and this is just powerful gear-ups to go through ahead of the French Open which starts later this month.
After her near miss in Spain, Madrid it is Simona Halep who goes as the 5/1 favourite* (betting odds taken from Boylesports on May 13th, 2019 at 8:09 pm)
WTA Rome Winner Odds*
Simona Halep 5/1
Petar Kvitova 7/1
Serena Williams 9/1
Kiki Bertens 10/1
Naomi Osaka 10/1
Ashleigh Barty 10/1
Elina Svitolina 10/1
Karolina Plsikova 14/1
Sloane Stephens 18/1
Belinda Bencic 20/1
Madison keys 22/1
Anett Kontaveit 28/1
Aryna Sablaenka 28/1
Bar 33/1
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on May 13th, 2019 at 8:09 pm)
Osaka & Halep battle for #1
Naomi Osaka is the top seed in Rome this weekend. She was a losing quarter-finalist in Spain last week against Belinda Bencic. Osaka mentioned recently that she has been distracted and thinking about her world number one status. That battle with Simona Halep has certainly been ramping up the pressure on her, that’s for sure. Can Osaka get some momentum back? There has been little from her in terms of form since her Australian Open success at the end of January. Osaka is 10/1 odds to take the title in Rome* (betting odds taken from bet365 on May 13th, 2019 at 8:09 pm)
Opposing her at the head of the field is Simona Halep. She cut the gap on Osaka’s number one status with a run to the final in Madird. Halep was expected to power her way to the title, but couldn’t get past Kiki Bertens. That’s just the frustrating thing with Halep. She’s pretty reliable in terms of going deep in competitions, but then she seems to lose in the finals of tournaments way more often than she should. This season she lost the final of Doha to Elise Mertens, the semi-finals of Miami to Karolina Pliskova and now this final against Bertens. She has a title defence at the French Open coming up. Can she get herself a boost in Rome? Halep and Osaka would be in line for a semi-final clash in Rome.
Favourable draw for Kvitova
The bottom half of the draw is being headed up by Petra Kvitova, who is second seed for the tournament. There’s a pretty good draw ahead for Kvitova, with perhaps the one tricky opponent that she could run into being Anett Kontaveit in the third round. Navigate that and the draw looks pretty open. So it’s actually worth a look at not only Kvitova at 7/1 odds to go and win the tournament outright* (betting odds taken from bet365 on May 13th, 2019 at 8:09 pm), but also if you wanted to oppose that with a dark horse shot on Estonia’s Kontaveit, it wouldn’t be a bad each shot.
Sloane Stephens showed up well in Madrid, reaching the semi-finals where she was stopped by Bertens. That’s been a rare show of a deep run at a tournament from the American this season though. But then, you know, Bertens wasn’t exactly trending to a major tournament success like the one that she picked up in Spain on the weekend. Bertens is up in the same quarter as Naomi Osaka incidentally.
Svitolina aims for Rome three-peat
Elina Svitolina has won the title in Rome for the last two years running and has a good chance at a deep run too with a favourable draw in the third quarter. That will also apply to Karolina Pliskova (without the Rome titles) as those two could dominate proceedings there and line up a huge quarter-final clash. Pliskova isn’t in great form though and Svitolina will find another title defence tough.
Bencic bounces back
Belinda Benci may be back in form. She had a great back to back run in Dubai and at the BNP Paribas Open earlier in the year, winning in Dubai (beating Halep, Svitolina and Kvitova on the way to the title) and then backed it up with a semifinal place at the BNP Paribas. There we big wins in that tournament as well over Osaka and Pliskova. When she’s on her game, Bencic is more than capable of challenging. Can she carry momentum over to Rome?
Serena’s back for more
Where does Serena Williams fit into all of this? She is in the second quarter. Where Halep is. Where Jo Konta is. Where Sloane Stephens is. Where Venus Williams is. That second quarter of Rome is stacked. Since her quarterfinals at the Australian Open this year, Serena had only played two matches before starting up in Madrid. After beating Rebecca Peterson in her first match there, Serena retired in the third round.
She returned with an impressive victory in Rome (against Peterson again) to set up a potential clash with her sister in the second round. The winner would face either Jo Konta or Sloane Stephens in the round of sixteen. Despite a lack of form, Serena Williams is at 9/1 odds to get the Rome title under her belt, which would be some fine preparation ahead of Roland Garros* (betting odds taken from bet365 on May 13th, 2019 at 8:09 pm).
Prediction
Simona Halep is a frustrating player from a betting perspective. She should have racked up more titles in her career that she has done. But she is arguably one of the greats in the game at the moment and she is one of the stronger clay court players as well. She is going to keep knocking on the door.
That second quarter is going to be a slog-fest, and whoever gets through that is going to be well worthy of being favourite for the title. If Halep survives that, then that is going to be a great show of character after the long weekend. You wouldn’t put it past her really.
The outside shot will be Kontaveit who has been to the semifinals of the Miami Open and the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix recently. She didn’t get it together last week in Spanish, so should be fresh to step up for another challenge. At 28/1 each way, she’s a nice fit* (betting odds taken from bet365 on May 13th, 2019 at 8:09 pm)
