18+ | Commercial Content | T&C's Apply | Play Responsibly | Advertising Disclosure
online-betting.me.uk is an independent professional comparison site supported by referral fees from the sites which are ranked on this site. The sites and information we present are from companies from which online-betting.me.uk receives compensation. This compensation may impact the rankings of the sites. Other factors, including our own opinions, your location, and the likelihood of signing up, may also impact how the ranking of the sites appears to a particular user. online-betting-me.local cannot and does not present information about every betting/casino site or betting/casino site offer available.

Value-Strategy + Stakes acc. to Kelly

Sports Betting Strategy of Andy

Value-Strategy + Stakes acc. to Kelly - Sports Betting Strategy of Andy - © kk-artworks - Fotolia.com

Here comes my value-strategy:

Use a good source which shows you the probabilities (percentage-distribution) of results on the basis of good statistics.

It’s not easy to find such a good source – an example would be: statarea.com
The alternatives are scibet.com and prosoccer.gr

Then you take the current odds of your favourite bookie (that’s the one where you have got the most money in the betting account ;-))

Then you have to compare the statistical percentages with the current odds. Decimal odds can be simply converted into percentages by dividing 1 by the odds (e.g. 1 / 1.5 = 0.666 = 67%)

Example:
Arsenal Chelsea 27 39 34
Odds on Chelsea at e.g. Bet365 are 2.40
1 / 2.40 = 0.416 –> meaning 42%
Gives you a difference of 42% – 34% = 8%

Then you can stake those 8% according to the Kelly-strategy. Stake according to Kelly amounts to: budget (e.g. £500) multiplied by 1/10th of the valuation (here 8% thus 0.08) divided by the decimal odds minus 1 (here 2.40 – 1 = 1.40)

Thus, at our match 40 divided by 1.40 = a £28.57 stake

The Kelly-strategy has the advantage that the stake is calculated on the basis of probabilities and your currently available budget.

Best wishes
Andy

 75,884 total views,  2 views today