Losing Series Asian Handicap
I like to play single so I started betting with 1X2 but I noticed I get better odds with asian handicap. Of course risk is sometimes higher with asian handicap betting, but usually with good analyse you can improve your percentage.
I use asian handicap because of two main reasons:
1. I risk less because odds are always high so I need fewer correct games to be up.
2. In my opinion another advantage for betting on asian handicap is that bookmaker sets line so you will only have to choose better line ( let’s say line is -1/2 but you can search for -0.25 ), not better odd ( supposing odds are always 1.90/1.90 ).
I use a combined strategy that involves many aspects .
Let me explain my strategy.
1. First I have searched and added to my shortlist some leagues that can be reliable and results are often predictable and not ambiguous leagues . My leagues are first english leagues. I find enough games in these leagues . Depending on my knowledge I have more leagues.
2. From these leagues I choose games where I can find informations, previews, anything valuable that are decisive for a game.
3. If I can watch games from that league ( for example English Premier League ) I note on my paper coach tactics from my point of view. For example, Rafa Benitez from Liverpool prefers to win 2-0 than winning 6-2 a game. This tells me he is more preoccupied by final result than beating handicap.
Also I note on a paper or I search on internet teams formation. For example a team with 4-4-2 formation is more likely to beat handicap than a team playing 4-5-1 formation .
For first 3 steps is more a start of the season research . During season I only update if something changed. My daily analyse starts from step 4.
4. This step I think is most important for me. I try to explain this step clear.
I will take an example from English Premier League. Let’s take two teams from this year:
Liverpool ( a good team ) and Birmingham ( a bad team ). For every game these teams play, bookmakers set their lines . For Liverpool’s games lines are always sharp ( AH -1 , AH -1.25 , AH -1.5 ) when Liverpool plays against poor teams . For Birmingham, lines are in their favour because this team is supposed to struggle and fight against relegation ( they give AH +0.5 , AH +1 , AH +1.5 ).
Maybe you don’t know but for every game played this handicap is included in statistic! For every game played, for example Liverpool game, if Liverpool plays home and asian handicap is -1.5 and final result is 2-1 for Liverpool, although Liverpool won the game in handicap statistic Liverpool lost. This statistic is my main betting base. This means that Liverpool played worse than expected. They should have won easily that game .
So, what I do? I start from my opinion that bookies set correct asian handicap. I search for good teams that LOST their handicap many times consecutive ( for me at least 3 times or 4 times is enough ). I search those teams from all today’s offer and write them on paper for further investigation. From let’s say 50 games per day I end up with 8-9 games left on my shortlist.
5. Next step is searching for team statistic. Here I am interested most in goals per game scored and received. I eliminate games where that have poor statistic because although these teams are set favourite by bookies, their real play is bad.
6. I search for injuries or any other news that can affect usual style of play .If I find something bad for favourite teams I eliminate that game from my shortlist .
7. With remaining games on my list I place my bets. I use flat betting system with 5% of my bank stake on every bet .
To make my work easier so I found some sites that can help me:
www.7m.cn – main site used for asian handicap tracking system
www.sfstats.net – used for goals per game
www.betbrain.com – used to search for best asian handicap lines
other sites – injuries , team news , previews
I use some sites for general info. First I use club’s websites:
http://www.soccerassociation.com ( or other webpages I already stored )
if I have enough time to study. If not , I use :
For previews:
1 ) http://www.bethelp.com/today/previews
This page from www.bethelp.com contains previews of the games and many useful news.
2) www.sportinglife.com
For injuries:
1) http://www.betinf.com/ – transfers
2) http://www.totalctrl.info/
3) http://www.physioroom.com/
specially here: http://www.physioroom.com/sports/football/index.php?SKEY=43e44a272401660c87172782cd2e329b this last site is my favourite one.
Additional info:
http://www.football-lineups.com/
http://www.newsnow.co.uk/newsfeed/?name=Sport
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