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Backing under 2.5 goals for the first 5 minutes of a match

Sports Betting Strategy of Dan

Backing under 2.5 goals for the first 5 minutes of a match - Sports Betting Strategy of Dan - © Doc RaBe -

Hi there.

1. My strategy involves the over/under 2.5 goals in soccer/football.
2. Must use a bookie with in play betting – preferably a betting exchange like Betfair, Smarkets or Betdaq

So the key to this system was research, and in my research (over 300 matches) at the highest levels – the average first goal was scored in the 33rd minute. Four percent of all the matches studied ended in 0-0 draw.

Of note, when watching the odds on these matches (say on Betfair) the odds on the “Under 2.5 goals” market drop about 1 cent per minute until the first goal is scored. They usually start around the 1.70 – 2.00 mark. The lower the starting odds in this market generally means lower score.

It doesn’t matter what I back really, however I do prefer to back at odds under 2.00 for the “under 2.5 goals” market. Keeping in mind that I have (on average) 33mins – I get super cautious and put a five cent lay in on whatever I have backed.

For example – backing at 1.90 and laying at 1.85 – or backing at 1.70 and laying at 1.65 covers my options.

It doesn’t really matter too much about the starting odds on a betting exchange, as within less than 5 minutes the lay price will have been achieved. Even if a goal is scored prior to 5 minutes – I still have 1.5 goals to play with in my favour – however that is a rare occurrence in professional football. In the 2006 world cup there was only one match where the first goal came before the 5 minute mark – it came at the 4 minute mark. However, even so – in this match they still went on to score less that 2.5 for the entire match.


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