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Asian Handicap Betting Strategy

Sports Betting Strategy of Eric

Asian Handicap Betting Strategy - Sports Betting Strategy of Eric © Doc RaBe - Fotolia.com

I enjoy Asian Handicapping a lot. Asian Handicap betting on football betting is a popular option, as it provides a great deal of coverage, because any match which produces an drawn handicapped outcome (for example a -1 team winning by one goal) actually produces a push instead. This push means that any drawn handicap outcome will refund the initial stake. Because this coverage is there, then it means that it is worth taking advantage of in my opinion.

One of the basic Asian Handicap strategy bets to look at is, the winning margin of teams. The general upshot of this, is that the handicapping system makes it difficult for even good teams to overcome more than a -1 Asian Handicap. There are numerous factors about this, one of them being, generally when teams get a goal up, then there is a certain amount of consolidation happening by a manager to protect that lead. If a team opens the scoring in the 70th minute of a match, then the likelihood is, that they are going to be more defensive, the opposition more aggressive. So pushing your boundaries out beyond a -1 Asian Handicap starts to accrue a lot more risk.

But pushing the boat out is where all the profit is in the system, right? Absolutely, but only when looking at looking for favourite teams to overcome a negative handicap, so in terms of percentages, you are better off playing for small profit.

Some general stats here to back this up, is by looking at Premier League stats for the English big four for the 2011/12 season.

Winning Margins Losing Margins
Arsenal 11 one goal winning margins, and 8 one goal losing margin in 34 matches = 55%
Chelsea 8 one goal winning margins, and 4 one goal losing margins in 34 matches = 35%
Man City 7 one goal winning margins, and 5 one goal losing margins in 34 matches = 35%
Man Utd 9 one goal winning margins, and 2 one goal losing margins in 34 matches = 32%

While Arsenal are running up a high percentage this season, you can see on average that the big teams produce around 1/3 of their matches with just a one goal margin (either win or loss) out of the season. So there is around a one in three shot that a one goal winning margin is going to occur, even with the big teams. Only two teams in the league this season have more produced more wins at more than one goal margin, than they have with a one goal margin. So there is chance to rein in your options and not too much need to push beyond a -1 Asian Handicap.

Balance the Win/Loss/Draw odds first before even looking at the Asian Handicap market.
Away teams trading between 1.7 and 2.2 in Win/Loss/Draw odds are are superb value in a +1 Asian Handicap
Home teams trading between 1.5 and 1.7 are the best value in a -1 Asian Handicap

One of the best tips in Asian Handicap betting, is to be guided by the bookmaker prices, they are not going to steer you far wrong of the expected outcome. Use stats as well to back up your options, particularly the scoring averages for a team home and away. Arsenal for example this season have scored 2.12 goals on average and conceded 0.82 at home. Chelsea have averaged 2.06 and conceded 1.25 at home. So figure out the difference there, and you can see a clear trend and picture of where one goal margins come from by looking at these stats.

Don’t be afraid of backing the underdog in positive markets. Backing an underdog team, especially away from home at a +1 can bring in nice small profits over the course of a season.

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