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Information and Statistics in Basketball Betting

Sports Betting Strategy of Stan

Information and Statistics in Basketball Betting - Sports Betting Strategy of Stan - © Ulf G�hme -

My favourite zone of bettings are basketball matches. They’re understimated by many betters, but basketball bets bring big profit if you know how to bet on them. I bet every day on NBA matches. By every match there are many options to bet – but I bet most on 2way(ML), 2way with handicap, Over and Under x points. The success come as result of a lot of work – information about the game and statistics for the two teams. When I decide to play the match X, I take into consideration a few factors, which I estimate from 1 to 10, and decide which bet will I take – 1 or 2(2way with or without pointspread), Under or Over number of points.

Factor Number 1 is the form of the two teams – I estimate for example the form of team A with 9(9 wins in last 10 matches) and the form from team B with 3(3 wins in last 10 matches of the team), so here I’ve got big difference between the recent form of the two teams. —-> Note 1

The second factor is the info about this game

  • Key missings(players,coaches)- if there is a big absence for one of the teams I estimate this with 2 punkts lower. If there’re 2 missings with 5 – so then the note of this component for this team will be 5(by 2 key missings). —-> Note 2
  • How have the two teams played in the last three games – except the record – for example W(won)L(lost)W(won), I read about the level of their play in this matches. Then I add the notes of the 3 games and do one note for the level of play of the team in this 3 games.—-> Note 3
  • For every match I find the weakness and strenght of the two teams and I estimate which team will have advantage. —–> Note 4

And the third factor are statistics. I do one note for all of its components: —–> Note 5

  • The tradition in the years – for example the hosts have advantage in the years
  • The form of the teams at home and away from home, and are they in winning-streak or losing-streak
  • How many points scored they in past matches at home, away from home and overall.
  • How many points became they in past matches at home, away from home and overall.
  • Is it team A/B a high scoring team, low scoring team, good-defensive team, weak-defensive team.

I add the notes

Note 1A(10 max) + Note2A(10 max) + Note3A(10 max) + Note4A(10 max) + Note5A(10 max) = NoteA(50 max)

Then I do the same with the notes for the second team:
Note1B + Note2B + Note3B + Note4B + Note5B = NoteB

Then I deduct from NoteA(overall note for the team A) the NoteB.

If the difference is lower than 3 it will be a close game, and I skip this game or try it Under or Over X. points, based on te notes of the statistics.

If the difference is between 3 and 5 I bet on ML(2way). If the difference is higher than 5 I bet this game with pointspread.

Best wishes

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