18+ | Commercial Content | T&C's Apply | Play Responsibly | Advertising Disclosure
online-betting.me.uk is an independent professional comparison site supported by referral fees from the sites which are ranked on this site. The sites and information we present are from companies from which online-betting.me.uk receives compensation. This compensation may impact the rankings of the sites. Other factors, including our own opinions, your location, and the likelihood of signing up, may also impact how the ranking of the sites appears to a particular user. online-betting-me.local cannot and does not present information about every betting/casino site or betting/casino site offer available.

Betting with an Over/Under System

Sports Betting Strategy of Stephen

Betting with an Over/Under System - Sports Betting Strategy of Stephen - © diez-artwork - Fotolia.com

Hi,

Over some time I have tried out an over/under system that is just based on statistics from a league in one season. I wanted to see how I would do against the bookies by using the following method:

For every round I would first find the average amount of goals scored in the league, I would then divide that number by 2 so that I would get a base value for each of the teams. EX. 2,5 goals scored on average=base value 1,225 per team.

For the home team I would use the following criteria to find out how many goals they would score: (home goals scored/home games played)-base value per team. EX. Home team scored 30 goals in 15 matched, so 30/15-1,225=0,625. So by this I figure that the hometeam will score on average 0,625 goals more than average. 1,225+0,625=1,85 goals

I then do the same with the away team. (Away goals scored/awaygames
played)-base value. EX. 14 goals scored/ 15 games
played=0,933-1,225=-0,292.
I figure that the away team will score 0,292 goals less than average.
1,225-0,292=0,933.

I now have an estimated value of how many goals there will be in this match by adding the expected home goals and expected away goals.
1,85+0,933=2,783.

In the long term I expect this value to be going closer to the league average so I add the league average 2,5 with the expected goals from the match 2,783 and divide by 2. EX. (2,5+2,783)/2=2,6415

In this this match I expect there will be scored 2,6415 goals. I then use a poisson calculation to estimate how often there will be scored 0, 1 or 2 goals when the average is 2,6415 and find that it will be a under 50,8% of the times.

I then set the right odds for Under/Over to be 1/0,508=1,9685 and 1/0,492=2,0325

If a bookie is now giving odds that are higher than that for under/over I will then take that odds.

Loading