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Estimating and Comparing Probabilities

Sports Betting Strategy of Theo

Estimating and Comparing Probabilities - Sports Betting Strategy of Theo - © Robert Kneschke -

I have been betting on soccer games for 9 years.
I have tried various betting strategies which I came up with, and have been using a particular strategy that returns the most consistent winnings for nearly 4 years.

Here’s how it works:
Before I bet on a game, I always consult the media for information:

  • Injured players
  • Position in the league table
  • The most recent games
  • Constant or changing performance by the individual teams
  • Anything else that may be important

Thus I only bet on teams if I can obtain enough information about them, and not on some provincial team for Latvia or anything like that.

Based on this information, I estimate the probability of winning for each team. This takes a lot of practice.

Next, I prepare my own odds for the games (based on my estimated probabilities) and compare my odds to those of the internet bookmakers.
Now I bet on the teams for which my bookmaker calculated higher odds than I did.

Although there are times when I lose, I did win a net total of £1,481 over the last 16 months (I have been keeping track for 16 months), always using the same bet of £30 per game (I always bet on individual matches, no accumulators).

If you would like to try it, start with small bets; if you are successful for approximately 3 months, you can slowly start to increase your stake.

I wish all sports bettors the best of success and the bookmakers lots of money to pay out.

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