Friday 29th January Kickoff: 1955hrs
Derby County v Manchester United
Football – England – FA Cup
The fourth round of the FA Cup takes centre stage in English football this weekend, where the first of the ties pits Championship side Derby County at home to Manchester United. Both of these clubs are coming off the back of a defeat in their most recent league games and will be hoping for a change of fortune on Friday evening.
Monday night’s 4-1 loss away to Burnley means it’s now just one win in five for Derby, with that sole victory coming in this competition when they seen off Hartlepool in the previous round. Having went on a run of one defeat in 19 before this, it is somewhat surprising to see the drop in form that has plagued Paul Clement’s men. Admittedly, the final score against promotion rivals Burnley was not an accurate reflection of the game itself (two of the four goals were by penalty whilst Andy Keogh also put through his own net), it’s still somewhat concerning that they are yet to win in the league this calendar year. As Derby are very unlikely to win the FA Cup, and because promotion has been their aim for so long, it will be interesting to see how the manager approaches this game.
Underwhelming may not be a strong enough word to describe Manchester United’s overall performance this season, but it’s as apt a word as I can think of to describe their latest display at home to Southampton. Having just defeated arch-rivals Liverpool at Anfield six days previous, you would anticipate the players being buoyant and ready to kick on as they bid to close the gap on the top four. It was anything but. Abject and insipid also spring to mind, as United struggled to create clear-cut chances and eventually succumbed to a debut goal from Charlie Austin. It was their first defeat in six games, but other than a period of hope in the 3-3 draw with Newcastle during that run of games, the quality of play, attacking intent and entertainment is still sadly lacking. Louis Van Gaal has been under constant criticism for his style and philosophy – which is unrelenting. Champions League football will undoubtedly be their priority, but such is the pressure and attention focused upon Old Trafford, an early exit to lower league opposition would seem almost unthinkable at this stage.
Derby’s struggles of late have mainly been confined to when play away from home, as their record at the iPro Stadium has been pretty strong for the majority of the season. Other than the surprise 3-0 loss to Birmingham in their most recent home game, the Rams had won seven of their last nine in front of their own fans and that sort of record will give them hope for the rest of the season as well as in this game against a vulnerable United team. What is less positive for them, however, is they have not won a home FA Cup tie against a Premier League side in over a decade, and the last time they hosted United in this competition it ended in a heavy 4-1 reverse.
Following recent results, United are now five points adrift of fourth-placed Tottenham, a deficit which looks as though it will only grow unless there is an improvement in the formers performance. Even their progress to to this round came rather fortunately as they required a last-minute penalty at home to League One Sheffield United in the third round. It’s no secret that there are more than a few of the club’s supporters who are extremely frustrated at the lack of progress under the current manager, especially considering the amount of money that has been spent assembling this squad. Barring anything extraordinary, it appears as though Van Gaal will be in charge until at least the end of the season and with little to no chance of new signings, the Dutchman has to find some way of getting more from the players he has at his disposal.
Derby County v Manchester United Betting Tips
With this game being live on national television in the United Kingdom, and with the biggest name in English football travelling to one of the better Championship sides, there will be the smell of a shock in the air. The FA Cup may not carry the same romance as it once did with the focus and attention given to the Premier League, but there will be no sense of that amongst the home support as they attempt to cheer their team on to a famous cup win.
I have alluded to United’s struggles throughout this preview and it is very unlikely that we will see anything but strong starting eleven as they bid to avoid being on the end of the aforementioned shock. It is games like this where the likes of Wayne Rooney and Michael Carrick have to stand up and get their teammates up for the challenge that awaits them. Reports have suggested Rooney has taken more of a role in doing just that in recent weeks, and he’ll have to lead by example again.
It’s a very intriguing tie and one that the visitors will have to be very careful in. If Derby had been in better form then I could have been more enthused about picking them to get the victory but, as it is, I am too concerned about their recent struggles in defence (conceding 13 in their last six games). I do think they will put up a good show, however, and they have enough up top to give their opponents some problems. United may not be the most adventurous of teams, but they have actually only kept three clean sheets in their last 10 games. At the odds, I think both teams to score is the value play, here.
Both teams to score 5/6 @ Betvictor
