Liechtenstein’s win over Moldova in their most recent game back in November was their first win in a competitive game since June 2011 when they defeated Lithuania. That gives you some indication of their struggles at this level but it should not take away from what was a historic win – the country’s first away success in European Championship qualification for a generation. The minnows will hope that they can build on that win and try to remain competitive with some of the other nations in Group G. They have already matched their total points of the last qualifying campaign in this competition which is a sign of their improvement.
With a group that consists of Russia and Sweden, Austria would probably have been looking at finishing third and securing on of the play-off spots before a ball was kicked in qualifying. Having played four games however, including matches against the top two seeds, they top the group and are very much in pole position to qualify automatically. Following a 1-1 draw at home to the Swedes to kick of their campaign, they have won three straight against Moldova, Montenegro and Russia. There is still a long way to go of course but you can forgive Austrians dreaming of making their first major International tournament (that they never automatically qualified as host for) since the World Cup in 1998.
There is no doubt that Liechtenstein are much more vulnerable on their travels than they are at home. They had to soak up a lot of pressure and ride their luck at times in their win in Moldova and they have already lost away to Sweden and Russia in this group. They are generally more competitive at home but they have not even won a friendly in their own country since 2012 when they beat Andorra. They have held Montenegro to a draw in this campaign which is their only other point but it should serve notice to Austria that an early goal is vital in these types of games, otherwise Liechtenstein will grow in confidence.
Austria narrowly missed out on the play-offs for the World Cup in Brazil but it was a positive campaign overall and one that set them up in good heart for qualifying for the Euro’s in France. Their recent good form is illustrated by losing only two of their last 12 games. One of those defeats came in their last game at home to Brazil in a friendly but they acquitted themselves very well and were a touch unlucky not to get a draw in the end. The serious business starts again for them on Friday and whilst they do top the group, they have also played three of their four games at home and have still to travel to Russia and Sweden.
The prohibitive odds on an away win are unlikely to tempt many so the challenge is to try and find value elsewhere. Liechtenstein will be be buoyant after their win over Moldova but this will prove a much stiffer test. Austria have started very well in this group but they will be well aware that they have to continue in the same vein if they are to keep the gap between them and the others. The key to this game, I believe, is getting a early goal. If the visitors can manage to score early on in the game then it should be a comfortable enough match. Interestingly, Austria have scored in both halves in each of their last seven away games when they have scored 2 or more goals. The odds suggest that they are overwhelming favourites and I can see them building on the momentum they have by getting at their hosts from the off.
Austria to score in both halves 21/20 @ Sportingbet
