Poland v Portugal
Thursday 30th June 2016 Kickoff 2000hrs
Football – European Championships – International
Just under three weeks ago there were 24 teams gearing up to participate in Euro 2016 with great anticipation and huge excitement, Thursday sees the first of the quarter-finals take place with now just eight nations left fighting to become European champions. What’s gone in between has not always been pretty but there has been plenty of talking points and history has also been made. Both Portugal and Poland will be hoping that they can create a bit of history of their own by winning this competition for the first ever time – they may not be the most fancied of those that are left but their wins in the last stage show that the two certainly do not lack in character or desire.
Before a ball was kicked in this tournament, there were a few shrewd judges who tipped Poland up as being a potential winner of the European Championships. An impressive qualifying campaign which seen them defeat Germany at home, added to impressive club campaigns for key players like Robert Lewandowski and Gregorz Krychowiak meant that they were one people’s radar despite not being amongst the most fancied of nations. The Poles negotiated the group stage unbeaten and without conceding a goal but their performances were in stark contrast to their style of play over the last couple of years. Nobody scored more goals in qualifying to get to France than Poland did, but they were also susceptible in defence. Head Coach Adam Nawalka has obviously indentified their defensive deficiencies and sought to make his team more resolute – and it’s worked. Only a spectacular equaliser from Switzerland in their round of 16 has prevented them from coming through their first four games without conceding. On the other hand, though, Poland have not carried the same threat going forward.
Tournament football (particularly in this new format) is such a bizarre entity at times, which can often throw up peculiar stories. Take Portugal, for example. Despite not winning any of their four games in the competition to date, Fernando Santos’ men are in the quarter finals and in with a great chance of reaching the last four at these Championships for the fourth time in their last five appearances. Draws in their group stage with Iceland, Austria and Hungary seen them qualify as one of the best third placed teams. They were drawn against Croatia – arguably the most impressive team during the initial stage – in a game where they were expected to be second best. Such was the end-to-end nature of their 3-3 draw with Hungary, the game was Croatia was expected to be another entertaining bout – but that never materialised. Saturday evening’s game in Lens was as bad as it gets at this level. Santos is known for his defensively-minded approach to the game and that was on full show throughout the regulation 90 minutes and subsequent extra time. In a game of very few chances (no shot on target until extra time) it was a surprise penalties were not needed as Ricardo Quaresma popped up to tap the ball in from a parried Cristiano Ronaldo shot.
Despite Lewandowski not being anywhere near his best, Poland have managed to find a way through to their first ever European Championship quarter final. The lack of form from their talisman and captain would ordinarily be a concern but there’s absolutely no denying his quality. The longer Poland stick around in this competition the more you suspect the Bayern Munich star is going to have his say, and that will be a massive advantage to his nation’s chances of going even deeper into this tournament. Having got this far without Lewandowski having too much of an impact, it only bodes well for Poland if and when his quality really shines through. Portugal are another step up in class compared to Switzerland so it’s fair to assume he will have to have more of a say on Thursday if Poland are to be victorious.
Portugal have their own world class talent, of course, and Ronaldo cannot help but have his say even if he’s not scoring. Criticised for a slow start to the competition (including when he missed a penalty against Austria), the Real Madrid star notched a double in the final group game against Hungary but still earned some negative comments following his on field demeanour. He went some way to answering those criticisms when looking genuinely pleased with Portugal’s progress to this stage, even if he was not the one that grabbed the glory. He was involved, however, and he will have to be at his best again on Thursday with a similar approach from Santos likely. Unlike his club role with Real where he gets chance after chance, Portugal’s style of play means he is probably only going to get one or two chances and he has to be clinical.
Poland v Portugal Betting Tips
These two have never met in tournament football which is somewhat surprising considering their rich traditions in international football. There will be a plethora of quality on show on Thursday in Marseille with players from both sides playing at the top level. Up until this stage, however, it has been the support act for both teams who have been most dangerous. Nani for Portugal and Artie Milik for Poland have been a threat in every game they have played thus far which may be down to opposition defences playing closer attention to Lewandowski and Ronaldo.
For those expecting this to be a free-scoring, all-out attacking affair, I fear you may be disappointed. History dictates that the closer to the final you get in these competitions, the more cautious teams get. Considering that has been a feature of these finals throughout, it suggests that the last eight (particularly this tie) will be for the purists amongst us. Only one of the eight games these two have played between them have finished with more than two goals (Portugal’s 3-3 draw with Hungary) whilst five of them have seen one goal or less scored. The bookmakers are taking no chances with a low-scoring affair on Thursday but it is hard to think that this will be anything but a close game. Portugal are undefeated without winning whilst Poland have drawn two of their four games. Despite Portugal being clearly fancied in the market, I think this will be very close and decided on small margins and suggest taking the draw after 90 minutes.
Draw 39/19 @ 888sport
