Wycombe looked well in control of their League 2 play-off when taking a 3-0 lead with less than an hour gone, but conceding two goals in the last five minutes against Plymouth means the second leg is going to be a lot more interesting. With 13 points between the two clubs over the course of the regular season, Wycombe were always going to be the favourites coming into these games, and for a long time they certainly appeared to live up to that expectation. Such is the drama and excitement of the play-offs, however, that they so often become a leveller and are akin to more of a cup tie than a league game. Plymouth will hope that the closing stages of the game at Home Park, combined with the heightened expectation on Wycombe – who have the lead and finished well ahead of them in the league – will allow them to turn around the tie.
It was only on the final day of the regular season that seen Wycombe confined to the play-offs as they missed out on automatic promotion by a single point. Despite being in the top three for the majority of the campaign, Gareth Ainworth’s team came unstuck as they managed only one win in their last three games. That proved to be their undoing, but the players have responded well to that disappointment and will be hoping to finish off Plymouth and reach Wembley for a chance to play in League One next season. There’s no getting away from how tough a task they face, though, as they finished the season with the worst home record of any of the top eight, and only won three of their last 10 at home.
Those two late goals have definitely changed the complexion of the this tie but Paul Sheridan will be concerned with the overall performance from his Plymouth players. They looked completely out their depth for the majority of the game, and the only hope is that it was nerves that prevented them from reaching the standards they have set throughout the campaign. Sheridan and the Argyle supporters will be praying that the players have got that performance out their system and build upon their late show, as they simply cannot afford a repeat if they are to progress. They can also take confidence from their last away game when they defeated Shrewsbury who have earned automatic promotion.
The play-offs are often referred to as lottery due to their unpredictable nature, and the unexpected usually happens. We have already seen that this season with an incredible 5-5 draw between Swindon and Sheffield United in League One. It may be too much to expect that sort of result on Thursday but I do not think there will be much between the teams come the end of the second leg. Away goals do not count in these games so Plymouth know that any single-goal victory would take the match to extra time. Wycombe have came undone several times this season when the pressure has gotten too much. This will be another big test for them and their promotion credentials.
Although Wycombe have a slight advantage coming into this game, there is reason to believe that it will be the visitors who come into the game in a more buoyant mood due to how the first leg ended. I think this game will be just as entertaining as the match on Saturday, much to both managers frustration, no doubt. Plymouth, especially, were known for being a team that was hard to break down during the season and conceded the second fewest number of goals. The two previous meetings in this campaign have went the way of the away team and I think that’s a trend that could continue, but although I prefer the away team to be successful over the 90 minutes, the bet I most prefer is for there to be at least three goals scored. Neither side’s defence coped with the increased intensity in the first leg and I see no reason why that should change on Thursday, particularly as the pressure will be even greater.
Over 2.5 goals 11/10 @ Betfred
