Tuesday 17h May 2016 Kickoff 1945hrs
Hull City v Derby County
Football – Championship – England
If Derby County are to take their place against Sheffield Wednesday a week on Saturday for a place in next season’s Premier League then they will have to create a bit of history. No team has ever overturned a three goal deficit from the first leg in the history of the football play-offs – that’s the size of task that faces Darren Wassall’s team. Hull may well be overwhelming favourites but Derby have are the only visiting team to have won at the KC Stadium this season so if anybody can do it, it may well be the Rams.
Hull have been in the top six for virtually the whole season and whilst automatic promotion was definitely the initial aim, their place in the play-offs has never been in doubt. Steve Bruce’s side were relegated to this level on the final day of last season but they were also well equipped to bounce straight back having remained the majority of their squad as well as being able to enhance it with the return to fitness of several stars who missed large chunks of the previous campaign. Two of those players were Robert Snodgrass and Abel Hernandez – and both have shown their class this term. Snodgrass played just 40 minutes of Premier League football but his return in the second half of this season has added real quality to Hull’s midfield, whilst Hernandez was out-of-favour for large spells 12 months ago, managing only four league goals. The Uruguayan has certainly been much more effective in the Championship with 21 goals to his name including scoring in his last four. Both will be particularly important tomorrow and should they get to the final at Wembley on the 28th May.
It’s been a peculiar season for Derby County who were right at the head of the market as pre-season favourites for promotion. Paul Clement had been appointed to take over from Steve McClaren but the former Real Madrid assistant last barely six months before being replaced. Wassall was given the job on a temporary basis and has led them comfortably enough to the top six. Unfortunately for the Rams, it looks as though it’s going to be another heartbreak and another year in the Championship following Saturday’s dismal showing. There’s no doubt that the home team were unfortunate in the way they conceded but they were somewhat limited in their own play and it’s been something of an issue for them throughout the season. Despite disappointing last season by finishing outside the top six and missing the play-offs altogether, Derby have actually only accumulated one more point this term and it’s been more than enough to see them finish in fifth. League positions are very much academic at this stage, of course, but if Derby are to be eliminated on Tuesday, they have to be very honest with themselves and admit that they have failed to reach the heights they are capable of this term.
Even if it was a more slender lead that Hull had at their disposal coming into this second leg, they would still be very confident of progressing such is their excellent home record. 15 wins and seven draws from their 23 games at the KC Stadium is only bettered by Middlesbrough’s record and that was enough to get them automatic promotion. It makes their win on Saturday at the iPro Stadium even more surprising considering it’s their form on the road that prevented them from going up as one of the top two. One of the most impressive aspects of their season has been the goal differential which finished at +35 for their 23 home games. That was the best record in the league by a massive nine goals and it’s that sort of form that will make Bruce and his players huge favourites ahead of the return.
I alluded to the fact that Derby are the only team to have won at the KC Stadium this season and when you think back to that game, you would have gotten good money to think that they would finish five points behind Hull and that they would be likely be playing another season of Championship football. They absolutely bossed the game and were easy 2-0 winners with both goals coming from Jacob Butterfield. It is hard to think it’s a fluke, either, considering they were 4-0 victors when the two met at the iPro at the beginning of April. What every Derby County fan would give if their team could somehow manage a repeat of that tomorrow.
Hull City v Derby County Betting Tips
The nature of play-off’s game – particularly in this league – mean that no matter what happens in the first leg, there is always a chance – even if it’s a slim one in this case. History and logic is very much against Derby but they remain a very capable team even if they have failed to show that consistently. They will also be able to play without any fear as they know that virtually everybody has them counted out this.
It goes without saying that Derby simply have to score the first goal if they are to have any chance so we can expect a pretty fast start from the visitors – or at least that will be the hope. Hull were able to do a number on them on Saturday and I would not be surprised if Bruce sets his team up to try and kill the game and rely on his excellent home defensive record to see them through. Ultimately, I think it’s too big for Derby to turnaround and although Hull do have a fantastic home record, they may just have one eye already on the final – it’s human nature. Derby have dismantled Hull twice this season and I think there has been a big overreaction to the weekend’s game in terms of price, making the away team a bit of value to record a moral victory if nothing else.
Derby 27/10 @ Marathonbet
