Although Ipswich have only won two or their last five in the Championship, they remain in pole position to finish in the fourth and final play-off spot. They can still finish higher than that, of course, being a point off Derby but it’s likely that sixth place is a battle between themselves, Brentford and Wolves. Those two clubs are three points behind Mick McCarthy’s men with two games to play. McCarthy took his current team back to Molineux for a crunch match with his former employees. The match ended in a draw which means if they can take four points from their final two games then they will be contesting the post-season with a chance of a return to the Premier League. Their final two games are against teams below them in the table with little to play for, so they look to have an outstanding chance of achieving their goal.
Nottingham Forest flirted with the possibility of challenging for the play-offs, themselves, until a month ago. Since beating Rotherham back in March, Forest have failed to win another game – losing four and drawing two of their last six games. It is a run of form which leaves them in mid-table and preparing for next season. Dougie Freedman has only been in charge of the club since February so it will be interesting to see how he views his current squad of players and where he would like to strengthen. One are he may wish to look at is in defence as they have steadily got worse throughout the season. Their 65 goals against is the worst of the top 14 clubs and with Karl Darlow and Jamal Lascelles leaving for Newcastle, it looks like a definite area for improvement.
I have written before about McCarthy’s record in this league and it is at this stage of the season where that really comes into play. Although Ipswich have a three point cushion on the chasing pack, winning games is never easy in their sort of situation so the experience of their manager and players such as Christophe Berra, Daryl Murphy and Stephen Hunt, who have all won promotion at other clubs, is vital. A win on Saturday would all but seal their position in the play-offs but it certainly will not be easy.
Under Stuart Pearce, Forest were a totally different side to the one they are now. Despite having Britt Assombalonga at his disposal – spearheading a squad packed full of attacking talent – his style failed to bring the best out of the players. Freedman has certainly made them more attractive to watch but he still has to find that balance between attack and defence. Their last 16 goals have featured 57 goals at an average of 3.6. In the 28 games previous to that their average was 2.75 per game, indicating the impact the change in management has had.
Brentford and Wolves will be hoping that Nottingham Forest can give their own play-off hopes a serious boost by getting a result at Portman Road. Even if the away team could manage a draw it would mean the battle for the top six will go to the wire if one of the chasing clubs can pick up a win this weekend. Ipswich are plenty short enough at 4/6 and I am quite happy to leave that well alone. They may well win but the bet I am interested in is both teams to score. Six of Ipswich’s last eight games have resulted in this whilst nine of Forest’s last 10 away games have also ended this way.
Both teams to score 5/6 @ Bet365
