Everton V Southampton
Saturday, 29 September 2012 – Kick-Off: 15:00 GMT
English Premier League
An imperious Everton sit third in the Premier League after an uncharacteristically impressive start to the campaign which has seen David Moyes’ side rack up three victories from their first five assignments. And with the teams above them facing problematic fixtures this coming weekend (Chelsea go to Arsenal while Man Utd host Tottenham), there is even a possibility of the Toffees finishing the weekend top of the pile – although visiting Southampton, who should arrive on Merseyside in buoyant mood after finally clinching their first win of the term with a thumping 4-1 victory at home to Aston Villa last weekend, may well trouble the odds-on favourites.
Indeed, Nigel Adkins’ Saints have already showcased their credentials to be a right royal nuisance in this company, despite failing to register a single point before last week’s hammering of an out of sorts Aston Villa. Narrow, and unfortunate 3-2 defeats to both Manchester outfits serves as evidence of this, although inept displays at home to Wigan, losing 2-0, and away at Arsenal, where they were mauled 6-1, would suggest there is some inconsistency in their DNA. Nevertheless, 2/1 with SkyBet on an away win or draw (Double Chance), for a team who clearly have it in them to raise their game for the stellar teams of the division, seems like value to me – their tally of nine goals is bettered by only four teams, while inform striker Rickie Lambert (4 goals) will prove a handful for a usually well-drilled Everton rearguard, one that failed to contend with the similarly powerful Demba Ba a fortnight ago.
In Everton, though, we have a group of players on top of their game. Awesome at Swansea last time out, coasting to a 3-0 success, their form at home also breeds confidence – a 1-0 victory over Manchester United on the opening weekend was the perfect platform for the season ahead, before a 2-2 draw with Newcastle in which they were thoroughly unlucky not to register yet another maximum haul at Goodison. In fact, the Toffees are unbeaten in their own backyard since 21 March, when losing 1-0 to Arsenal. Since then they have won five out of six on their own patch and are overwhelming favourites to continue their fine run of home form, at 4/9 with PaddyPower.
Let’s be honest. Everton have been mightily impressive since the get go, with their only blip thus far a 2-0 reverse to West Brom. Apart from that they’ve been excellent; the trio of Baines, Pienaar and, in particular, Fellani have terrorised defences, while summer signing Kevin Miralles is also proving to be a real livewire. The one let down so far has been a lack of strikes from last season’s goal-getter Nikica Jelavic, who is unlikely to start on Saturday due to injury. Therefore Victor Anichebe will lead the attack, with the Nigerian bidding to notch for the third straight league game.
Down the years, however, you would be mad to go anywhere near Everton when perceived as favourites, as they’ve been the perennial underachievers against the mediocre sides of the division. You sense, even at such an early stage, that may no longer be the case. The team is supremely confident – their results speak for themselves – and that is being transmitted onto the pitch, where their performances up till now have been outstanding. Maintain that high standard and they’ll almost certainly be too hot for a Southampton side who remain in the bottom five, having lost four on the trot before victory last week, and post the worst defensive record in the league: 15 conceded, 3 per game on average, with a total of 9 coming in their two away encounters. Though goals were inevitable away at Arsenal and Man City.
The bookies are probably spot-on with their pre-match assessment, although backing the hosts seems futile at such paltry odds. Instead, the draw, at small stakes, could deliver some value for money – the demolition of Villa should have restored some of Southampton’s swagger and confidence, while they should have learned plenty from their treks to the Emirates and Etihad Stadiums. The draw is still on the optimistic side, though; instead I fancy Southampton maintaining their trend of producing exciting, goal-laden games. I can’t see them containing this blistering Everton attack for love nor money, so it will be a case of ‘attack is the best form of defence’ for Nigel Adkins’ fearless charges. And with a robust Lambert bang in form, there is every chance the visitors will get in on the scoring act.
Match Prediction: Optimistic Draw @ 4/1 with BetVictor
Recommended Bet: Both Teams to Score @ 10/11 with WilliamHill
