With the English Football League and all four top divisions in Scotland getting underway over the last weekend, we’re not on the countdown for the English Premier League. Leicester City surprised the football world in 2015/16 when they finished top of the table and lifted their first ever top flight crown – leaving the top clubs in both Manchester and London in their wake. Much has changed since that shock and although I cannot promise a 5000/1 selection (the odds at which Leicester started last season) I will endeavour to guide you towards some value at both ends of the table in what is building up to be one of the most eagerly anticipated Premier League seasons of all time.
Season 2015/16 Review
Claudio Ranieri was something of a surprise choice to replace Nigel Pearson at Leicester City having been away from English football for over a decade, and struggling for any sort of success both in club management and international level. That lack of expectation and doubt surrounding his appointment played into the Italian’s hands as he guided the club to the biggest shock in English football history. From the beginning of the campaign Leicester played an attractive style of football and started to build momentum which carried them game to game. Key players such as Jamie Vardy, Ngolo Kante and Riyad Mahrez were outstanding and rightfully earned plenty of praise, individually, but it was collective ability that seen Leicester perform consistently. In today’s modern football where so much attention is placed on strategy, tactics and analysing the minute detail, the simplicity in which the Foxes approached their games was quite refreshing. Ranieri, for the most part, stucj to a 4-4-2 but the beauty was that every player knew their job and they done it to a very high standard – certainly better than any other team in the league. Games came and went, weeks passed by, yet even when we were approaching the final eight games of the season there were still plenty of people dismissing Leicester and Ranieri, expecting them to give way to a more ‘illustrious’ club. That never materialised of course, and they showed huge character to see it through to the end. Arsenal eventually finished second, some 10 points behind, whilst Tottenham (who had been Leicester’s closest pursuers for the most part, faded into third a further point behind. Manchester City claimed the final Champions League spot on goal difference from rivals United but neither looked like mounting a serious challenge for the title in the second half of the campaign.
The New Boys
I alluded to the amount of changes that have taken place since the end of last season and that has been no more evident than in the managerial positions at three of the biggest clubs in English football. After underperforming throughout the last 12 months, both Manchester clubs and Chelsea sought to bring in arguably the three most coveted managers in European football in an attempt to get them back challenging for the title.
Pep Guardiola was announced as Manuel Pellegrini’s replacement as early as January of this year following a successful three year stint in Germany with Bayern Munich. It had been long mooted that Guardiola’s next job would be in English football and it was just a matter of which club he would opt for as he seemingly had the choice of all three. City won the race and he now faces arguably his biggest challenge to date.
Manchester United were reportedly very keen to entice Guardiola to Old Trafford but once he confirmed his intention to take up City’s offer, the United board were immediately linked with a man who has plenty of history with the club. Jose Mourinho is certainly not everybody’s cup of tea and he has riled more than a few United supporter’s in the past. However, after some very lean years under the stewardship of David Moyes and Louis Van Gaal, the majority of the fans will just be hoping that the ‘Special One’s’ excellent managerial record continues and brings success to a club who have struggled more often than not since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement.
Mourinho’s departure from Chelsea towards the end of 2015 led to the temporary appointment of Guus Hiddink who assumed the role to the end of the campaign. Like City, however, Chelsea announced their new manager months ago with Antonio Conte taking charge after Italy’s exit from the European Championships. Conte may not have enjoyed the same level of success as either Guardiola or Mourinho, but he built a Juventus side that dominated Italian football and got the best out of a very limited Italian squad. His passionate and charismatic demeanour will undoubtedly find favour with a Chelsea support who suffered the humiliation of finishing 10th last season – having won the league only a year before.
The contenders
As you would expect with the most lucrative television deal in history kicking in over the summer, Premier League clubs have not been slow to spend some of those funds. The combination of new managers taking over at big clubs, said big clubs completely underperforming throughout last season, and the likelihood that this campaign will be one of the most competitive in the history of the Premier League has resulted in incredible amounts of money changing hands for some of the most coveted players in world football.
Leicester have looked to build on the success of last season by bulking up their squad ahead of having to cope with Champions League football as well as defending their league title. Ahmed Musa is now the club’s most expensive signing, coming from CSKA Moscow, whilst Nampalys Mendy has the unenviable job of trying to replace Kante, who has moved to Chelsea. Being able to manage the demands of playing at the top level in Europe yet still remain a challenger for the league will be Leicester’s biggest issue, in my opinion. Having predicted Ranieri’s men would be relegated last season I am loathed to suggest they’re not able to repeat but I would be very surprised to see them finish top of the table again. Instead, I can see the Foxes performing credibly in the league but possibly falling short of the top four.
For a while last season, it appeared as though Arsenal were going to take advantage of disappointing seasons from clubs whom you would expect to be fighting it out for the league. With City, United and Chelsea all below them at the turn of the year, and unable to find any consistency, the Gunners were favourites to claim their first title since 2004. A run of two wins in nine games at the beginning of 2016 proved to be their undoing. Their only major signing of the summer has been the acquisition of Swiss midfielder Granit Xhaka who will add some balance to the attacking flair in the middle of the park. The Arsenal supporters will still be hoping that there is business to be done before the close of the window in three weeks time, particularly in the defensive and striking positions. Aaron Ramsey – fresh off a brilliant European Championships with Wales – can establish himself as Arsenal’s main man this season but unless genuine quality, which also strengthens the mentality of the team, is added, I think a top three spot is the best Arsene Wenger’s men can hope for.
In any other campaign, Tottenham’s rise to challenge for the title would have been the biggest story but Leicester’s exploits well and truly superseded anything the White Hart Lane club achieved. Spurs improved from finishing fifth in 2014/15 to third last term – accumulating six more points. It looked as though it could have been so much better than their eventual finishing position, of course, but they just ran out of steam towards the end and failed to win any of their final four games. Mauricio Pochettino opted to field a very strong team in the Europa League as well as domestically and that would have taken a huge amount of energy out of key players. That will, of course, be a challenge this season with entry into the Champions League. The manager has brought in a couple of news signings with Victor Wanyama and Vincent Janssen arriving, but he will want to add some more depth yet. With improvement expected from a number of clubs it will be even more of a test for Spurs to mount another title challenge but they are an improving, young team with an excellent manager. Although I can’t see them finishing top I think Tottenham are capable of staying in and around the top three or four.
Manchester City finally won the battle for fourth ahead of United, last season, despite both clubs doing their best to throw their chances away. There’s certainly a case to be made that the announcement of Pellegrini’s departure and impending arrival of Guardiola halfway through the season had a damaging impact on City’s fortunes, and when it looked like they were out the title race the Chilean manager certainly prioritised the Champions League where they reached the semi finals for the first ever time. It would be foolish to judge City’s chances this season on what they achieved in 2016/17, particularly as Guardiola has wasted no time in bringing new faces to the Etihad. Nolito, Ilkay Gundogan, Leroy Sane and John Stones have all came in and will add to what is an already fantastic squad – it’s probably the best in the league by some distance. The problem for City throughout the years has been performing to the level the team is capable of week in, week out. If any manager is going to get them to that level then it’s surely Guardiola who has dominated the Spanish and German leagues already. Looking at it from a purely football standpoint it is difficult to look beyond City for the league, but putting my betting hat on then I would struggle putting them up a s a selection at their current price.
One of the few people in England who knows what it’s like to compete against Guardiola is Jose Mourinho who was his direct rival when the two coached in Spain. More often than not it was Pep who get the better of the new United manager and you can be certain that Mourinho will not have forgotten it as the two prepare to do battle again. The circumstances in which he left Chelsea last term were pretty shocking all things considered as the club were lurking just above the relegation zone only a matter of months after winning the title. Numerous bust-ups with key players manifested itself in Chelsea losing game after game before he was sacked but it’s worked out well in the long run for Mourinho who has made no secret of his desire to manage Manchester United. He was disappointed not to have replaced Ferguson in 2013 and again in 2014 when Louis Van Gaal took over from Moyes. Now Mourinho is in the hot seat he has already set his stall out to get the club back at the top of English football after finishing fifth, fourth and seventh. Those efforts are clearly not to the standard expected by the Old Trafford club and whilst I believe Mourinho will have them more competitive, I’m not convinced they will be a good match long-term. With respect to transfers, the biggest saga of the summer is finally at an end with Paul Pogba returning to the Premier League after four seasons away for a world record fee. He’s joined by Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Henrikh Mkhitaryan as Mourinho attemps to rectify what has been a poor attacking unit. Despite those additions, I see United as the worst value bet out of all the contenders at this moment.
Conte’s appointment at Chelsea is an intriguing one as his intensity and passion are two characteristics that were hugely missing from the Stamford Bridge outfit for all of last season. His reputation only grew after Italy’s performances during the Euro’s and because of Guardiola and Mourinho arriving at the same time, he has come into English football under the radar somewhat. The former Juve boss has not been as busy as his two competitors with Michy Batshuayi the only player to have come in along with Kante. Romelu Lukaku has long been linked with a return to the club whilst Diego Costa has been rumoured to move away from Chelsea before the close of the window. I think that would be detrimental to the Blue’s chances of regaining the league title as Costa’s style of play would thrive under Conte’s stewardship. Nonetheless, it’s a squad packed full of quality that requires tweaking rather than an overhaul. With another couple of additions, especially in defence, I can definitely see a title challenge from Chelsea providing the new manager is able to get the attitude of some stars (namely Hazard and Matic) corrected.
Whilst it is very likely the winner of this year’s Premier League will come from one of the six teams previewed above, it would be folly to dismiss some at bigger prices after Leicester’s antics last season. The most obvious starting point is Liverpool who finished the last campaign very strongly to reach the final of the Europa League but they still ended up eighth in the league. Jurgen Klopp will be taking charge of his first full season at Anfield having arrived on Merseyside last October to take over from Brendan Rodgers. It took some time but there was a noticeable difference in the Reds play in the last three months of 2015/16. Having enjoyed so much success in Germany with Borussia Dortmund, the eccentric manager is driven to achieve something similar in England and his style of play and philosophy is coming to the fore. Certain players who were underperforming under the previous manager are now contributing much more whilst the summer signings such as Saido Mane and Georginio Wijnaldum will add more depth and power to the ranks. The influence of Klopp should not be underestimated and he’s bound to have even more of an impact now he’s building his own team, but there is still a concern about the strength of Liverpool’s defence and I feel that needs improved in the next few weeks if they are to trouble the likes of City and Chelsea.
Honourable mentions should also be given to Everton and Southampton but for pretty different reasons. Ronald Koeman has swapped St Mary’s for Goodison Park this summer after guiding the Saints to sixth place last season. Koeman’s appointment has coincided with the recent takeover at Everton which should see some much needed funds being made available. The new manager has not wasted any time in spending some of the revenue from the sale of Stones to City, with Ashley Williams and Yannick Bolassie being close to completing moves. In reality, Everton appear to be some way off from mounting anything close to a title challenge, particularly on the back of a deeply disappointing campaign last time around. Improvement for them would be trying to break into the top four which itself will be hugely competitive. Every season it seems like Southampton are at a rebuilding stage with a number of players moving on and it’s no different this time as Wanyama and Graziano Pelle are among those to have moved away. Add the arrival of Claude Puel as manager then there has to be some doubt as to whether they can repeat last season’s finish. However, if there’s something we have learned over the last few seasons, it’s that the Saints have a tremendous recruitment policy and that should continue to serve them well. Finally, West Ham will be hoping to build upon what was a brilliant first season under Slaven Bilic’s stewardship. Their style of play was about as entertaining as anything else in the Premier League and with the move to the Olympic Stadium there is a huge amount of optimism amongst Hammers supporters. If they can produce a similar level of performance to last season then another productive campaign awaits.
Verdict
I’m sure you’re like me and very much looking forward to what should be a terrific Premier League in 2016/17. The standard of manager in the league is breathtaking with so many stories within that aspect alone. We can expect a plethora of off-the-field stories and dramas with the personalities involved so let’s hope that what happens on the field is just as entertaining.
In terms of a selection to win the league I have opted for Chelsea this time around. Regular readers will be aware that the Blues landed us a nice touch two seasons ago when romping to the league under Mourinho. Much has changed since then, of course, but plenty of the players who were involved in that success are still at Stamford Bridge. I am confident in the ability of Conte to get the squad united again and back to the level that we all know they are capable of. For all the quality that has been brought into England over the summer, Hazard remains one of the biggest – if not the biggest – stars in the Premier League. Providing he stays fit (and at the club, obviously) I can see him having a huge season. The implied gap between themselves and the two Manchester clubs in terms of their price is overestimated and that makes them a value bet.
The other team I am very interested in this year is Liverpool. I was very impressed with how they finished last season with something of a makeshift squad. Although they have not been as active as I expected in the transfer market, Klopp has bought well and I would expect to see another couple of players added between now and the end of August. As well as a speculative bet on them to win the league I would also advise a saver on them making the top four. Unlike four of their other challengers for this, Liverpool will not be hampered by playing in the Champions League and that could prove crucial. Although it was only a friendly, their win over Barcelona was a sign of how much they have improved under Klopp and I can only see them getting better over the next few years.
Chelsea to win Premier League 13/2 @ Unibet
Liverpool to win Premier League 9/1 @ Ladbrokes
Liverpool to finish in top four 13/8 @ Betfred
