Online bookmaker Ladbrokes have a Money Back Special running for the big Germany v Italy betting showdown on Thursday. Germany start as favourites, but the Italians have shown a lot of resilience as well as real touches of class during their run to the semi finals. Manchester City striker Mario Balotelli is their big weapon up front, and they will need his pace and power to try and unsettle the German back line. If Balotelli scores the first of last goal of the game in Germany v Italy betting, then online bookmaker Ladbrokes will refund any losing first goalscorer bet. This provides some great coverage on the valuable market, with Mario Gomez at 5/1, Mirsolav Klose at 11/2, Lukas Podolski 7/1, Marco Rues 8/1, Mario Balotelli 8/1 and other options at 9/1 and beyond. So plenty of value and great coverage from online bookmaker Ladbrokes on Germany v Italy betting. The highly popular bookie offers a free £50 bet for new customers registering an account with the special code FB50.
Germany v Italy Betting Odds at Ladbrokes
Germany 5/6, Draw 12/5, Italy 4/1
Germany coach Joachim Low went with a brave move of changing his front line for their quarter final match against Greece. Perhaps it wasn’t such a big risk given the level of opposition, but the gamble paid off in spades as Germany cruised to a 4-2 victory. Low made the call to give his main players a rest, knowing that it had been a busy tournament at the end of long domestic season for the players. It didn’t break Germany’s stride and they will, no doubt, go with their strongest line up to face Italy. Bastian Schweinsteiger, who admitted himself that he was poor against Greece because of an ankle injury, has been declared fit for the semi final. Low has said that he won’t risk anyone who is not at 100% fit, such is the confidence that he has in the depth of his squad. Germany did produce some mistakes against Greece, but were always a level above their opponents, and it really was the first time at Euro 2012 that we have seen some frailties at the back from the Germans. However, they will be tactically prepared for Italy, and while Italy, as shown against England, are capable of controlling a game, their finishing has left a lot to be desired. That it is stark contrast to Germany, who have been rolling along and they have such versatility to call upon that they can generally muscle their way through any matches. They have scored at least one in each of their last twenty matches.
Germany are now on record breaking 15 match winning streak in competitive matches. At the European Championships, Germany have never lost when they have been two goals up. You can look at tons of positive stats for Germany to win this semi final easily, but they have a terrible record against Italy. Germany have never beaten Italy in a competitive match, and they have exited major tournaments twice before at the semi final stage to the Italians. The most recent of those, was back in the 2006 World Cup when Italy edged through. So they have to get that history out of their head and they know what they will meet a very tough tournament team. Germany though have won five of their six European Championship semi finals. They have the pace, power and movement to win this, but the key could be Schweinsteiger. He is the engine room in the midfield and he is the one who is always available to receive the ball from a team mate. He makes them tick and therefore he needs to get on the ball. Germany will have a bigger presence in the midfield, because Italy will stick with their diamond 4-4-2, so there will be space for Germany to exploit. That will be the key to the game. Joachim Low’s men are favourites to go through, and perhaps set up a repeat of the 2008 final against Spain.
The head to head between these two sides stands heavily in favour of Italy. Italy hold a W14 D9 L7 record against Germany, and out of those matches, there have been seven competitive ones, and Italy have a W3 D4 L0 record in those seven. The last time the two sides met was back in February of 2011, which ended in a 1-1 draw in Dortmund. Italy of course, saw off England in the quarter finals, failing to make the most of an array of chances. That could, ultimately, be where Italy fall down. They have a good enough game under their belt, and coach Cesare Prandelli has developed a good attacking philosophy into the national side. They have a pretty solid defence to build on from the back, and all of the play-making comes through their star player, Andrea Pirlo. However, they are still lacking true quality forwards to take them a step forward at the moment. Mario Balotelli looks their brightest hope and as he showed against England, is quick enough to get in behind the defence, so they will need him at his best.
Italy’s strength though is also their great vulnerability. Germany have said that they have no intention of man marking Andrea Pirlo, who sits at the back of the Italian midfield diamond, but with a numerical advantage in the middle of the park, Germany may have an easier time negating him than England did. Take Pirlo’s vision out of the equation and Italy may struggle to get the ball forward with any real conviction. Italy are a great tournament side, they know how to get the job done. Will they be at another disadvantage though, after playing two days later than Germany, and having had to go through the mental and psychical strains of extra time and a penalty shoot out against England in the quarter finals? When all things are considered, Italy don’t have the fire power to really out-gun Germany in an open game, not even close. But they will dig deep as they have done before in tournaments. In three previous European Championship semi finals, Italy have failed to score a single goal.
Germany v Italy prediction: Not sure that Italy are going to have enough in the tank to keep Germany at bay. They will push Germany hard, but the Germans, even when they aren’t playing that well, still get the job done comfortable. Because England were not pushing forward or offering anything as an offensive threat, Italy had a comfortable time. The boot will likely be on the other foot here as Germany will dominate. A Germany -0.75 Asian Handicap for 6/5 at Paddy Power looks a sound option.
