UEFA Euro 2020 Group Stage Predictions – which teams will finish bottom?

UEFA Euro 2020 – To Finish Bottom Betting

Plenty of emphasis goes into trying to work out which teams stand the best chance of winning matches – but what about trying to predict those who won’t fare so well?

In the clamour to finish in the top two, while also taking into account that the four best third-placed finishers will also make the cut for the knockout rounds, there has to be someone who props up in last place.

We try our best, therefore, to solve quite possibly the most niche of conundrums: predicting which teams will finish bottom of their group at the 2020 European Championship.

UEFA Euro 2020 Betting at Betway

All odds shown below were taken from Betway.

Group A – Crescent Stars already fading?

Last Place Odds – Wales 6/4, Turkey 2/1, Switzerland 3/1, Italy 16/1

If we are to assume that Italy, the overwhelming favourites to finish on top of this group having qualified for the tournament with a perfect record, are to secure a top-three position at the very least, it leaves the remaining three teams fairly evenly matched according to their respective odds and FIFA rankings.

Wales are the shortest price to finish in last place, despite Rob Page’s team ticking enough boxes. The Dragons have lost just three of their past 18 internationals (vs Belgium, England, France) and, with 10 clean sheets in the last 14 games, are capable of taking points from clashes with Switzerland and Turkey.

The latter of those, Turkey, are the lowest ranked member in Group A. The Crescent Stars qualified with the best defence in the competition (conceding 0.3 per game) but shipped 20 across 13 matches since (1.5 per game), winning only four. Meanwhile, in 2016, they finished in third place in their group at the last European Championship, narrowly avoiding finishing bottom by winning a tense final encounter.

Last Place Prediction: Turkey

 

 

Group B – Euro Debutants up against it?

Last Place Odds – Finland 4/9, Russia 7/2, Denmark 15/2, Belgium 18/1

It would have to be regarded as a big surprise were Belgium and Denmark not to occupy the top two positions in Group B come the end of the group stage. This pair bookending the top ten in the latest FIFA rankings. Meanwhile Russia and Finland trail in their wake, in 38th and 54th respectively, and look set to battle it out to avoid fourth spot and a certain exit.

The adrenaline that comes from playing in your first major tournament might play a role in Finland recording a memorable result at Euro 2020. However, Markku Karnerva and his team can consider themselves a little fortunate to be at these finals. The Finns finished a distant second to Italy and, according to Infogol’s Expected Goals model, should have finished in fourth place below Bosnia and Greece.

Russia deservedly qualified but as a runner-up, behind Belgium but nine clear of a Scotland side that are also at these finals. Their greater experience – this being a fourth consecutive major tournament, reaching the last-eight at the 2018 World Cup – should serve them well. More crucially, however, they have won all four prior meetings with the Finns, who could very well end the tournament without a point.

Last Place Prediction: Finland

 

 

Group C – Things could go south for North Macedonia?

Last Place Odds – North Macedonia 4/9, Austria 9/2, Ukraine 5/1, Netherlands 40/1

The erratic nature of this Netherlands outfit, with four wins in their last 11 internationals (half of which were against vastly inferior opponents in Gibraltar and Latvia), means nothing can be ruled out in what looks a deceptively tricky Group C. The Dutch have slumped to 16th in the FIFA rankings whereas Austria and Ukraine are ranked just outside the world’s top 20, so the tussle for a top two finish could be intense.

This leaves North Macedonia, ranked a mere 62 in the world making their maiden appearance at a major tournament. Excitement back home must be palpable. The Lynxes qualified through the play-offs but finished third in a group that included Austria, who won 4-1 away and 2-1 at home, despite a negative process (10.4 xGF, 18.6 xGA).

Ukraine impressively won their qualifying group, finishing ahead of Portugal and perennial qualifiers Serbia. So merit plenty of respect. Andriy Shevchenko’s men massively overachieved though, scoring 17 from 11 xGF while conceding only four from 10.1 xGA, but conceded a single goal across their four previous meetings with North Macedonia (W3 L1) who will do extremely well to avoid fourth spot.

Last Place Prediction: North Macedonia

 

 

Group D – 2018 World Cup runners-up overrated?

Last Place Odds – Scotland 11/8, Czech Republic 11/8, Croatia 9/2, England 20/1

The embarrassment of riches available to Gareth Southgate means there is an expectancy that England should be reaching at least the semi-finals, if not the final, and they are priced accordingly. Croatia are expected to follow them through to the latter stages although I am less convinced this will be the case, with the Czech Republic and Scotland capable of doing enough to sneak through as a runner-up.

Since qualifying as winners of a poor section that included Wales in second, Croatia have lost nearly as many games as they have not (W5 D2 L6), and at one stage went 12 consecutive matches without registering a clean sheet. They scored no more than one goal in three of four matches in 2021, all against inferior opposition to what awaits them in this tournament, and so could underwhelm.

The Czech Republic rather scraped through as a runner-up although did beat England in the process. Results this year have been mixed but include a draw with Belgium and a six-goal thrashing of Estonia. Scotland qualified through the play-offs, via a penalty shoot-out no less, but have now lost twice in fifteen matches in a sign that they are becoming more difficult to beat under Steve Clarke.

Last Place Prediction: Croatia

 

 

Group E – Lewandowski cannot carry Poles?

Last Place Odds – Slovakia 4/6, Sweden 10/3, Poland 10/3, Spain 40/1

A consistent theme with many pre-tournament previews is that Slovakia are sitting ducks in Group E, which is certainly a competitive section but far from formidable. Granted the Falcons were incredibly poor during the initial group phase of qualifying, finishing third of five behind Croatia and Wales, while a run of one win in five games coming into the tournament is also disconcerting.

Slovakia are still ranked off a competitive FIFA mark though – higher, in actual fact, than fellow finalists Czech Republic, Hungary, Russia and Scotland – and solid enough defensively (8 of last 11 opponents scored no more than once) to hint at perhaps keeping their fixtures tight enough to sneak a point or two. A third place finish in their group at the last European Championship will inspire belief of a repeat.

Poland and Sweden are the other sides in this section, along with heavy favourites Spain who finished above the Swedes in qualifying. Of this trio, Poland could be most susceptible. The Eagles were slightly fortunate to qualify in the comfortable manner that they did. They are also heavily reliant on the goalscoring prowess of Lewandowski who has netted just once in his last ten Euro/World Cup matches.

Last Place Prediction: Poland

 

 

Group F – Group of Death awaits Hungary?

Last Place Odds – Hungary 4/11, Portugal 4/1, France 9/1, Germany 20/1

Hungary can look forward to three very exciting match ups in a group featuring World Cup holders France, defending European champions Portugal, and a three-time winner of this tournament Germany. All three rank inside the top 12 in the latest FIFA rankings, highlighting the gargantuan task in front of Marco Rossi and his Hungary side – who qualified despite finishing as low as fourth in their qualifying section.

There is therefore every chance Hungary could assume the role of whipping boys in what is undeniably the tournament’s Group of Death. Yet recent form – unbeaten in nine (W6) up until this year’s March international matches – and the fact two out of three group games at the tournament are scheduled to be played in front of a home crowd in Budapest, are a potential recipe for overachievement.

So, which of the other three are most vulnerable? I’d have to say Germany. A team in transition; a manager on the way out; some miserable recent losses to Spain (losing 6-0 in Seville) and North Macedonia (losing 2-1 in Duisberg). Not to mention them exiting at the group stage in last place at the last World Cup. I still believe Hungary will fare worse, however, the Germans look too big in this particular market.

Last Place Prediction: Hungary

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UEFA Euro 2020 – Last Place Predictions

Switzerland (Group A)

Finland (Group B)

North Macedonia (Group C)

Croatia (Group D)

Poland (Group E)

Hungary (Group F)

All six selections in an improbable six-fold works out at 270/1 with Betway.