With domestic football taking a break for the internationals, I thought it would be an ideal time to preview this year’s Champions League. The draw for the group stage was made on Thursday and – as ever – it has thrown up some mouthwatering fixtures. For the first time, UEFA altered the way in which the seedlings worked, with all the pot one clubs being champions of the top leagues in Europe and the defending champions of this competition – Barcelona. It has made for some very difficult groups but that should only add to the excitement for the neutral amongst us.
Group A
PSG – Real Madrid – Shakthar Donetsk – Malmo
Winners in 2014, Real Madrid will want to get over a disappointing season last time around where they ended up without a major trophy. Not one to accept failure, Florentino Perez has replaced Carlo Ancelotti with Rafael Benitez, who has of course won both La Liga and the Champions League with previous clubs. David de Gea has been the biggest name to arrive at the Bernabeu in this transfer window, but it was hardly a squad lacking in ability. Perez will be hoping the change in manager can bring out the best in the stars which make up that squad.
PSG have been regulars in the latter stages of this competition but they have yet to reach the last four which is bound to be their aim. Although the French club are top seeds, they are likely to be battling it out for second with Shakhtar Donetsk, such is the strength of Real Madrid. It would be a surprise if they never made it out the group but both the Ukrainians and Malmo (both of whom made it through qualification) have very good home records, so the Parisians will have to be at their best.
Prediction: Real Madrid, PSG
Group B
PSV – Manchester United – CSKA Moscow – Wolfsburg
This could be seen as one of the kinder groups, but it’s also a section which looks wide open. Manchester United are obviously the biggest name but they are not the force of old under Sir Alex Ferguson and will have to improve on their domestic form if they are to progress. Louis Van Gaal will be hoping that their resounding aggregate win over Club Brugge in the play-off will be a sign of things to come in Europe.
The other three clubs in Group B look very evenly matched, particularly as Wolfsburg have lost their star man Kevin de Bruyne to Manchester City. They have added to their squad as well, but the Belgian was their talisman and will be a miss. PSV have lost key players themselves, most notably Memphis Depay to their Group B opponents, United. CSKA Moscow have more recent experience of the Champions League than their German or Dutch rivals, but I think they will just fall short. As noted, it is a very difficult one to judge, but I think United and Wolfsburg will prevail, here.
Prediction: Manchester United, Wolfsburg
Group C
Benfica – Atletico Madrid – Galatasaray – Astana
I would be extremely surprised if Atletico do not finish top of Group C. Having reached the final in 2014, Diego Simeone’s men were eliminated by Real Madrid at the quarter-final stage last season. The squad looks stronger despite the loss of Arda and they’ve also started their domestic season in impressive fashion – winning 3-0 away to Sevilla last weekend. It’s likely that the battle for second-place will be between Benfica and Galatasaray, although for Astana to have reached this stage is a fantastic achievement in itself. It would be remarkable if they can challenge their most established rivals, but there’s not much between the Turkish and Portuguese champions. It will likely come down to the fixtures between the two and I think Galatasaray are better placed to pick something up in Lisbon and take the three points at home.
Prediction: Atletico, Galatasaray
Group D
Juventus – Manchester City – Sevilla – Borussia Monchengladbach
Dubbed the ‘group of death’, Group D is bound to throw up some excellent matches between now and the end of the year. Last years’s runners-up Juventus will be hoping to go one better despite losing key players in the shape of Arturo Vidal, Andrea Pirlo and Carlos Tevez. They will have their work cut out for them to get out the group, however, as Manchester City have looked impressive in the Premier League, whilst Sevilla have won the Europa League for the past two seasons. Throw in an exciting Monchengladbach side and it really is one for the purists.
In terms of who will qualify, I think Manchester City will top the group. They have not lived up to expectation in the Champions League over the last few seasons but with De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling, they will have a more dynamic attack which should help them in this competition. Sevilla and Juventus have looked like teams in transition in their domestic leagues thus far but I think the Italian champions will get through with their extra experience, although it won’t be easy.
Prediction: Manchester City, Juventus
Group E
Barcelona – Leverkusen – Roma – BATE
Last year’s champions, and outstanding ones at that, look to have a relatively safe passage through to the last 16. Leverkusen and Roma are dangerous on their day but neither have really looked like doing anything significant in the Champions League over the last couple of years, whilst Bate looked out their depth last season.
Both Roma and Leverkusen have strengthened their squads with strikers from the English Premier League. Javier Hernandez has made the move to Germany from Manchester United whilst Edin Dzeko has moved from the other club in Manchester to Rome. The latter has an excellent scoring record in European football, particularly from his time at Wolfsburg and he can be the threat that Roma lacked last season.
Prediction: Barcelona, Roma
Group F
Bayern – Arsenal – Olympiakos – Dinamo Zagreb
When Pep Guardiola signed up at Bayern a couple of years ago, it looked like the perfect football match with a multiple Champions League winner joining the then defending champions. It has not quite worked out like that but back-to-back semi-final appearances suggest they are not too far away and they should progress from this group with relative ease.
Arsenal look to be in pole position to qualify alongside Bayern, but their ambition must be to reach the quarter-final stage. Key to that is often topping their group which looks unlikely due to the German’s presence. I would be very surprised if Olympiakos or Zagreb have enough to work their way into contention for qualification, and it looks more likely that they will be contesting for the third spot and a place in the Europa League in the New Year.
Prediction: Bayern, Arsenal
Group G
Chelsea – Porto – Dynamo Kiev – Maccabi Tel-Aviv
In terms of opponents, it’s not a disastrous draw for Chelsea but the travelling involved certainly does not make it easy. Jose Mourinho will also make a return to the club where he won his first Champions League back in 2004. Last season’s defeat to PSG in the last 16 was a surprise to many at the time, but when you consider how Chelsea have performed since then, it might be a similar story this season. They will likely have enough to top Group G which should ensure a kinder draw in the next stage, but they’ll also have to improve if they are to challenge for the title.
Porto are perennial participants in this competition and reached the quarter-final stage last season, only to lose heavily to Bayern Munich. Jackson Martinez has left to joint Atletico and will be a big miss, but there’s fewer clubs better at recruiting players and with the addition of Iker Casillas, they will have plenty of experience in their quest to match last year’s efforts. I fancy them to edge out Dynamo Kiev in the battle for second, with Maccabi a distant fourth.
Prediction: Chelsea, Porto
Group H
Zenit – Valencia – Lyon – Gent
This, like Group B, is one of those groups where there is not a great deal amongst all four clubs. Gent will rightly be seen as the outsiders but they are up against three clubs who have little to shout about in the Champions League, of late. Zenit are the most experienced of the last few seasons whilst Valencia and Lyon have enjoyed their participation in the early 2000’s, regularly reaching the latter stages.
The Russian champions have disappointed and are regularly eliminated at the group stage, but you would struggle to think of a better opportunity for them to make it through to the last 16, with the change in seedings seemingly having worked in their favour. I fancy them to finish in the top two and expect them to be joined by Valencia. Los Che have yet hit the heights they reached last season, but the have squad full of quality and could surprise some if they do qualify.
Prediction: Valencia, Zenit
Champions League Betting Tips
I will be positing my predictions for the outright markers later this week, but I think there are a couple of decent bets to be had in the group stage phase. I mentioned above that Valencia have a squad full of quality. Álvaro Negredo and Paco Alcacer are Spanish Internationalists, whilst Enzo Perez and Andre Gomes will provide real quality from the middle of the park. Their impressive aggregate win over Monaco in the play-off round was a sign of things to come and the 11/10 on offer for them to win Group H should be taken.
Elsewhere, another side I think will enjoy the early stages of this competition is Wolfsburg. A second-placed finish in last season’s Bundesliga was built on a fantastic home record. If they can replicate that sort of form in their three home Champions League games, they will be a threat to Manchester United in a bid to top the group. There are enough doubts about Louis Van Gaal’s team that I’m willing to oppose them, and side with Wolfsburg to top their group.
Finally, although it is seen as the group of death, I think Manchester City and Juventus will both progress to the group stage. Rather than selecting either of these to win the group, backing the two forecasts (Manchester City/Juventus and Juventus/Manchester City) looks the way to go.
Selections:
Valencia to win Group H 11/10 @ William Hill
Wolfsburg to win Group B 5/2 @ Coral
Manchester City/Juventus forecast 9/4 @ Betvictor
Juventus/Manchester City straight forecast 11/4 @ Betvictor
