The draw for the group stages of the Champions League took place last Thursday and as ever, there is plenty to look forward to in European football’s premier competition between now and Christmas. With match day one just a fortnight away, there’s no better time to try and find some value bets for this season’s Champions League as we look to go one better than 2015/16. Followers of this column may remember that the three clubs put up as outright selections all reach the semi-finals and Atletico Madrid came within the width of a crossbar of landing a 16/1 bet – the second time in three seasons that they have been defeated by their arch rivals in the showpiece game. There’s no point in looking backwards, however, as the quest for finding winners begins again.
Group A
PSG are the top seeds in Group A and have been drawn against Arsenal, Basel and Ludogorets. The French Champions were knocked out at the quarter final stage again last season as they lost to Manchester City over the two legs. That was the final straw for the owners who decided to part company with Laurent Blanc and replace him with Unai Emery. Emery enjoyed great success with Sevilla in the Europa League and he has been tasked with trying to get the club into the last four – something they have never achieved. They will be expected to progress with relative ease from this group as are Arsenal. However, the Gunners never so things the easy way in this competition so Basel and the Bulgarian outfit will be hoping they can take advantage of any sloppiness from Arsene Wenger’s men. Overall, though, it would be a massive surprise if PSG and Arsenal do not make it through the last 16 and leave it to the other two teams in the group to battle it out for third spot and a place in the knockout phase of the Europa League.
Group B
This group has the appearance of being much more competitive than some with all four clubs closer together in terms of quality. Benfica were Portuguese champions for the 35th time last season and as a result qualified was a top seed in last week’s draw. Despite losing heavily to Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals in 15/16, they can be proud of their performance and a similar participation this time around would be seen as another success. Besiktas make a return to this level for the first time since 2009 which should not be underestimated, whilst Napoli will play in the group stage for just the third time in their history. Their task has been made harder, of course, with the sale of Gonzalo Higuain, and with Dynamo Kiev making up the group, all four clubs will feel they stand a chance of making it through this stage. Benfica have huge experience and that should see them fill one of the top two spots. I genuinely have no strong opinion about who progresses with them, however. Napoli are certainly very good going forward but their porous defence could see them undone.
Group C
Group C has already been given the tag of ‘Group of Death’ which is no surprise really with Barcelona, Manchester City, Borussia Moenchengladbach and Celtic all being drawn together. Barcelona have played both City and Celtic plenty of times in the recent past and have close links with the two clubs – not least because one of their favourites sons is now in charge at the Etihad. Celtic and ‘Gladbach have reached this stage after qualifying through the playoff route but achieved that in very different ways as the Germans romped to success over Young Boys whilst the Scottish Champions endured a nail-biting second leg against Hapoel Be’er Sheva, eventually winning 5-4 on aggregate. Similar to Group A, there appears to be two standouts for progression to the last 16, and such is the resources of both Barca and City, their class and quality should ultimately tell over the six group games. Nevertheless, they can expect to be challenged – especially in the away games – against two improving young teams in Celtic and Gladbach.
Group D
Group D possesses plenty of Champions League pedigree with Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid and PSV Eindhoven all drawn together. The one exception to that is Russian outfit Rostov who have qualified for the group stages for the first ever time. Bayern, Atletico and PSV all qualified for the knockout stage 12 months ago, with Atleti accounting for both clubs as they sneaked past PSV on penalties in the round of 16 whilst edging out the more favoured Bayern in the semi-final. The German champions are now, of course, under new management with the arrival of Carlo Ancelotti who is bidding to become the first manager to win the Champions League with three different clubs having been successful with AC Milan and Real Madrid. Diego Simeone will be wondering what he has to do in order to win his first having come so close last year and in 2014. The way in which his team play set them up perfectly for knockout football so you can imagine them going close again. PSV acquitted themselves very well last time around but they look to be up against it, along with Rostov (who, incidentally, reached this stage having defeated another Dutch giant in Ajax during qualification). The Dutch premiers can take some confidence from the fact they ran Atletico so close back in March – only losing out on penalties after two goalless draws.
Group E
Of all the top seeds in this year’s draw, CSKA Moscow were considered to be the weakest and the one which all the other team’s with hopes of qualifying to the knockout stage would have hoped for. The Russian champions are very much regulars in this competition but as the top seeds are inclusive of all league winners of the top seven ranked leagues and holders of the Champions League, there is often the chance that one of the clubs are in a ‘false’ position. CSKA have earned that position, however, but Bayer Leverkusen, Tottenham and Monaco will all feel they have an excellent chance of progressing to the next stage – and that there are two qualification places very much up for grabs. Leverkusen had to make do with a third place finish last term thanks to a worse head-to-head record with Roma. There is a thought that their young squad will have benefited from that year’s experience, however, and that they will be more competitive in this season’s competition. Monaco have enjoyed a terrific start to the new season having already brushed aside Fenerbache and Villareal on their way to this stage whilst they also defeated PSG 3-1 in Ligue 1 on Sunday. Their last participation resulted in them getting to the quarter finals and any repeat of that would make for another excellent showing. Tottenham’s reward for finishing third in the Premier League last season is being handed a very realistic chance of progressing. I am a big fan of Mauricio Pochettino and his talented squad could well spring a surprise if they are at their best.
Group F
Real Madrid are quickly becoming the Champions League specialists having won the competition for a second time in three seasons despite falling short domestically. Zinedine Zidane has only been in charge for eight months but he’s clearly having the desired effect. His team will face Borussia Dortmund, Legia Warsaw and Sporting Lisbon in the group phase, and whilst it is not the easiest of draws, they will be expected to progress with minimal fuss. Dortmund will be big favourites to go through with them – especially after their summer transfer business which included a return for Mario Gotze who enjoyed so much success in this competition in 2012/13. Without being disrespectful, Legia will just be happy to have made it to the group stage for the first ever time in their history. Sporting’s experience of playing at this level will give them the edge in the battle for third but they have not always performed as expected in the Champions League and could be set to lose key players before the end of the transfer window including star striker Islam Slimani.
Group G
The surprise story of last season was of course Leicester City winning the Premier League. Claudio Ranieri’s men shocked European football with their achievements and now find themselves as top seeds in the biggest competition of all. Much of the talk beforehand was what the Foxes would prefer in the draw – a glamorous group where they would have little chance of progressing or a realistic section which could see them extend their participation. Having been paired with Porto, Club Brugge and FC Copenhagen, it’s very much the latter which I believe is a good thing. Their lack of experience playing European football may well be an issue for them but they have nothing to fear against any of these clubs and if they play to form then they stand a great chance of playing in the Champions League beyond Christmas. The mass exodus of their big name players as not happened and Ranieri has looked to add some depth to the squad, too. Porto sprung something of a shock in the play-offs as they won 3-0 against Roma in the Italian capital to take their place and have the best recent track record in this section. Brugge and Copenhagen are not regular at the top table but are both capable on their day. Of the two, however, it’s the Danish club who are best equipped to challenge Porto and Leicester for one of the top two spots.
Group H
This is one of the more fascinating groups of the eight in my opinion. Juventus came so close to winning the whole thing in 2015 and will still be hurting from their exit to Bayern Munich last season when losing two late goals in the second leg before losing the tie in extra time. Nevertheless, it was evidence of how capable this team are and the Italian champs have strengthened their attacking options with the record purchase of Gonzalo Higuain. His arrival has offset the loss of Paul Pogba but Juve look strong again, and the experience of Dani Alves is another positive. Their group opponents include Sevilla who once again qualified by virtue of winning the Europa League – the third consecutive triumph in that competition. They were paired against the Italians and Man City 12 months ago but they appear to have a more favourable draw this season. Lyon are not the force of old and were out their depth last season whilst qualifiers Dinamo Zagreb make up the quartet. Juventus are one of the best organised teams in all of Europe and should negotiate this stage with the minimum of fuss. Sevilla are an intriguing prospect on paper but the loss of Emery as coach is a concern so it leaves the door open for Dinamo and Lyon, despite them lacking the genuine quality to have any major impact in the competition.
Summary
Now we’ve previewed all eight groups, the next objective is to find some value – both in terms of the group stage and outright winners. The absence of Manchester United and Chelsea from this season’s competition means the English representation looks somewhat different but the rest of the major clubs will be present and there are a number of interesting betting angles to explore. Whilst Leicester reminded us all that shocks do happen, the Champions League is the ultimate test and experience counts for so much at this level, but that does not always equate to the favourites winning it. Having hit the crossbar last season, let’s hope we can go one better when the final is held in Cardiff next May.
