Wednesday 13th April 2016 Kickoff 1945hrs
Atletico Madrid v Barcelona
Football – Champions League – Europe
As the old adage goes a week is a long time in football, so the last fortnight will have felt like a lifetime for Barcelona who are experiencing their worse spell of the campaign at precisely the wrong time. Atletico Madrid are arguably the last opponents you want to be facing at such a time so the return leg at Vicente Calderon promises to be a thoroughly interesting game between two teams who are extremely well known to each other.
We’re now approaching two years since Atletico stunned the football world and won the La Liga title and came within a minute of winning their first ever Champions League. Last season was something of transition after losing several key players but they are back to something like the same level that brought so much success. Currently second in their domestic league – three points behind Barca – and in with a realistic chance of knocking that same opponent out of the Champions League, Atleti are once again proving to be a thorn in the side of the Europe’s best. Of course, when the draw was made you would have gotten long odds on them having enough to trouble Barcelona over two legs but they were a constant threat in the first half last week in the Nou Camp before deservedly taking the lead. Diego Simeone’s plan was working to perfection until goal scorer Fernando Torres was stupidly sent off for a second booking before half time. That inevitably changed the game and it meant that Barca were afforded much more space and possession in their opponent’s half, eventually grabbing two vital goals. It’s a result that the manager would have been happy with beforehand in all likelihood as they were able to grab an away goal, and the result leaves them requiring a 1-0 win to progress – something that they are usually set-up perfectly to do.
The loss in El Clasico, followed by last week’s stuttering win was compounded with a lethargic 1-0 defeat away to Real Sociedad, furthering reducing their lead at the top of the Primera Division. It’s far from a crisis, of course, but there’s no doubting that Luis Enrique will be slightly concerned. For a team who have been free-scoring all campaign, Barca have struggled to create chances over the last month and the ones they have created have been passed up by their usually oh so reliable front three. It is easy to become so entranced with the quality of Messi, Neymar and Suarez, and how effective they have been as a trio, that the lack of goals from elsewhere in the team goes unnoticed. No other player in the Barcelona squad has managed to get into double figures this season with Ivan Rakitic the fourth highest scorer having scored eight goals. On one hand it illustrates just how phenomenal their front three are but if for whatever reason they do not perform it leaves them susceptible to dropping points and losing games. Of course, it could just be a very slight blip but there’s also a train of thought that suggests teams can set up to frustrate them by sitting team and being well organised. That’s definitely been the case in Barca’s last three games and they are likely to face something similar on Wednesday.
Torres’ suspension will be an annoyance for Simeone as the former Liverpool and Chelsea striker has been in good form of late, arguably his best since leaving Anfield. His goal in the Nou Camp was a throwback to his ability of old so his stupidity has come at the worst possible time. The most likely deputy would be Luciano Vietto but there is a chance that Antoine Griezmann could be deployed as a central striker. After all, Atleti’s strength is based upon their defensive capability so their approach to the game will remain unaltered. Incredibly, Benfica are the only visiting team to have scored in the last 11 Champions League games at the Calderon. It’s a truly remarkable record and is definitely the home team’s biggest asset as they prepare to face the current European champions.
It would be folly to think that this group of players Luis Enrique has at his disposal would be low on confidence but there is definitely something lacking going by their recent performances. Fatigue may well be an issue as it’s a squad that has had little rotation this season, especially as they were subject to a transfer embargo for the first half of it. When fit and available, the front three inevitably play but it could be that it’s catching up with them. Of course, the lacklustre displays could well be a mere blip and you certainly would not put it past them returning to their best when it’s required. Their away performances in Europe have not been hugely impressive this term but they are yet to taste defeat and if they can do that again on Wednesday they’ll be in the draw for the semi-finals.
Atletico Madrid v Barcelona Betting Tips
Of all the second leg games this week, the all-Spanish affair is the game I’m most looking forward to. If you went solely by the recent head-to-head then it would appear to be an obvious success for Barcelona as they have won the last seven meetings and not been defeated by Atletico since April 2014 – ironically at this exact stage of the Champions League. A lot has changed since that match but there’s also plenty in the home team’s favour as well. Atletico have taken the lead against Barcelona in both league games this season without being able to hold on, but they are maturing week by week and their home form is exceptionally strong.
If this game was played a month ago then I would find it very difficult to opt for anything other than a Barcelona win and progression to the last four. With Atletico requiring penalties to get past an average PSV side whilst Barcelona were at their magnificent best at home to Arsenal, it looked something of a formality over two legs. The first half of the first leg certainly dispelled that and we could be in for a war of attrition in the return. The circumstances of this game suit the home side better than Barca, in my opinion, and factoring in recent form I would not at all be surprised if Simeone pulls off a tactical master class that sees his team victorious. It may be that I come out of this one looking very silly after the visitors romp to the semi-final stage but I’m willing to risk it and make the Atletico a bet.
Atletico Madrid 22/9 @ Marathonbet
