Wednesday 27th April 2016 Kickoff 1945hrs
Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich
Football – Champions League – Europe
The second of the Champions League semi-finals takes place in the Spanish capital on Wednesday evening as Atletico Madrid entertain Bayern Munich. It’s something of a homecoming for the visitors manager – Pep Guardiola – who returns to his country of birth in search of what has been a three-year journey of winning this competition. It will of course be his last opportunity to do so in charge of the German champions elect before he departs for pastures new, but both he and his players will be tested by what is a very capable and determined opponent.
After their terrific campaign in 2013/14 when they won the La Liga title and came within a minute of taking the Champions League against rivals Real Madrid, the expectation was that it was a one-off and could not be sustained. That opinion was further enforced when key players such as Diego Costa were sold, but failure and mediocrity do not appear to be words associated with the enigmatic Diego Simeone. Atleti finished in third place in the league and reached the quarter-finals of this competition last year, a respectable enough season but they have surprised many yet again with their efforts this term. Level on points with Barcelona at the top of the table with three games to go, and a magnificent aggregate win over that same opponent in the last round of the Champions League ensures they remain on course to secure that unlikely double this time around. There’s an awful lot of football left to be play, though, and it could end up being a season that ends with little other than plaudits at the end of it. One thing is for sure, however, if a team is to defeat Simeone and this squad of players, they will have to be at their utmost best.
When Guardiola joined Bayern in 2013, he was taking on a team who had just won the treble. Plenty expected that his arrival would see the club dominate both European and German football throughout his tenure, and whilst he has certainly managed to do the latter, the former has proved a little more problematic. A couple of semi-final appearances is not to be sniffed at but it’s not the standard that is required by the Bayern Munich fans or board. I have mentioned before that should Pep fail to capture Bayern’s six Champions League, his reign would be seen as something of a failure. The margins are so small, however, that he could yet emulate his predecessor Jupp Heynkes by winning all three of the competitions they remain in, heading into May. The two games against Atletico, and a potential final against Real or Manchester City will undoubtedly be the biggest stumbling block, to that, as they are well clear at the top of the Bundesliga and face a Borussia Dortmund side in the final of the German Cup. The bookmakers make them favourites to win this as well, though, which is hardly surprising, but they must end the semi-final hoodoo before anything else.
It is impossible to preview and Atletico Madrid game without alluding to their excellent defensive record and that is essentially what got them past Barcelona in the quarter-finals. Despite playing with 10 men nearly an hour of the first leg in the Nou Camp, Atleti displayed a huge amount of courage and discipline to lose the game only 2-1 and remain in the tie. The second-leg was as fine a performance as you could see at any level, as they nullified the threat of the best attack in World football and were a constant menace on the counter. The 2-0 win was thoroughly deserved and sent out a warning to the other three semi-finalists that they are a huge threat in this season’s Champions League. What’s also impressive is how much they improved from the last-16 tie against PSV, and if they can find something similar here it would stand them with a great chance of making their second final in three seasons.
Bayern could be considered slightly fortunate to have made it to their fifth straight Champions League semi-final after nearly exiting against Juventus in the last-16. The other side of that argument is that the determination and never-say-die attitude is a great sign ahead of what will be the crunch part of their season and Guardiola’s career at the Allianz Arena. Their quarter-final success was not nearly as dramatic but they were also well below the standard we have come to expect from such a star-studded squad. Guardiola, known for his tactical acumen, will have to find a way to get the better of his opposite number in a way that his former club could not – and the battle between the managers is just as intriguing as what is happening on the park.
Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich Betting Tips
The two managers have faced each other only once before when Pep’s Barca edged a close encounter 2-1 against an Atletico side recently taken over by Simeone. It’s an interesting statistic considering they have been in charge of teams competing at the top table for a number of years now, but it should only add to what is bound to be a fascinating encounter. Atleti are at their best when keeping a compact shape and deny the opponents attackers in the width of the 18 yard box. Bayern, on the other hand, like to make the pitch as wide as possible to open up that space so it will be a case of who comes out on top of that battle that could well be pivotal.
Atletico are currently on a run of nine games unbeaten at home and conceded just two goals in that time. Bayern are on a decent run themselves, however, being 11 games unbeaten and winning eight of those, but they have managed only two victories in their last nine away games in this competition. That’s pretty damning, in my book, and highlights a frailty in their game. If one team can further increase their away day misery at this point then it’s this Atletico Madrid side. At no point in the home game against Barca did they appear to be overwhelmed and it will be a similar mentality on Wednesday, and one that can lead them to yet another important and crucial victory.
Atletico Madrid 36/17 @ Marathonbet
