Tuesday 3rd May 2016 Kickoff 1945hrs
Bayern Munich v Atletico Madrid
Football – Champions League – Europe
The first leg of the Champions League semi-final between Bayern Munich and Ateltico Madrid was every bit as intense and fascinating as it promised to be. A magnificent Saul Niguez goal is the difference heading into the return game at the Allianz Arena on Tuesday, and it is set up perfectly for at least 90 minutes of engrossing football.
The target for any team playing away from home in the first leg at this stage of the Champions League is to be in the game for the return, and that was certainly achieved by Pep Guardiola’s team last week. The main disappointment was the inability to grab a vital away goal, particularly in the second half when they put more and more pressure on the Atletico defence but were ultimately unable to. It leaves little margin for error on Tuesday, now, as any away goal would leave Bayern requiring three goals to progress and that is certainly no mean feat against the best defence in European football. As mentioned in last week’s preview, the Germans also have to get past their semi-final hoodoo against Spanish clubs have exited at this stage in the previous two campaigns against Real Madrid and Barcelona, respectively. Although Atleti do not have the same prestige as their La Liga rivals, Guardiola will be well aware of how dangerous they are as an opponent, and the threat they pose to ruining what could be a second treble for Bayern in three seasons.
It was a typical Atletico Madrid performance last week, and with a bit of luck they could have been travelling to Munich with a two goal lead if Fernando Torres’ second-half effort had found the inside of the post rather than crashing back off it. Nevertheless, a lead and a clean sheet were the main aims as they prepare for what will be a stern examination of their Champions League credentials. Their away form in this season’s competition has been fairly solid with their only loss coming in the previous round at the Nou Camp having earlier taken the lead. They were down to 10 men for nearly an hour in that encounter, so providing they are able to keep a full quota on the park, there is plenty of optimism for Diego Simeone and his players. The manager will know only too well the importance of scoring an away goal, and only has to look at how they were eliminated in the 2014/15 quarter-finals for a reminder. A 1-0 defeat to Real after a goalless first leg was their undoing, so whilst he will be anything but gung-ho for the away goal, Simeone will be realistic enough to presume that it will be unlikely that Bayern fail to score at least once – so they must carry a threat.
I mentioned last week that another failure to reach the Champions League final could well see Pep’s reign as Bayern Munich head coach deemed a failure. Expectations are so high at the club that getting to the last four is simply not good enough, and that has been emphasised by Karl-Heinz Rummenigge ahead of the second leg. The club legend, and current chairman, has made it clear that progress is required to the final later this month. Guardiola will be under no illusions, of course, and rightly prioritised Tuesday’s game by resting the majority of his stars in their Bundesliga game on Saturday. What Bayern can ill-afford is for a similar start to the game against Juventus in the last-16 when they went two goals down. Do that against this Atletico team and it is virtually over – poor first half performances in the last couple of seasons at this stage will also be fresh in the memory.
Like their opponents, Atletico played virtually a second team at the weekend, despite their domestic needs being much greater than Bayern’s. Whilst another German title looks all but secured, Atletico are in a three-way battle with Barcelona and Real so it was something of a risk to rest seven starters. In typical fashion, however, a 1-0 win was enough to preserve their title challenge and give a much-needed rest to the players who will be called upon tomorrow evening. The win over Rayo Vallecano extended Atleti’s winning run seven straight, and they have not conceded a goal in the last six of those. It’s a remarkable record at this stage of a long season but, if anything, Simeone’s men are getting stronger with the more games they play – certainly their belief.
Bayern Munich v Atletico Madrid Betting Tips
I cannot underestimate how much I am looking forward to this game and I hope it is every bit as enthralling as the first leg. There will be some who say that the lack of space and few clear-cut chances resulted in it being a frustrating game to watch but if you compare it to the Manchester City and Real Madrid encounter – it was a much higher quality game of football. The clash of styles between the two coaches and both sets of players should ensure a similar type of match but the stakes are even greater this time around.
Bayern have to win the game to have any chance of progressing but should they concede then it would appear to be an uphill battle. Atletico have conceded three goals on just one occasion this season, so Guardiola has to find some way of reducing their counter-attacking threat. However, Bayern are at their best when playing on the front foot and with a high-tempo, so it would be folly to curb that. It’s a game where I really like both teams to score, mainly because of the circumstances that surround the game. Four of Atletico’s last five away games have seen both teams finding the back of the net whilst the same has occurred in four of Bayern’s last seven home games in the Champions League. It goes without saying that the two will be going all out for the win and as second-legs tend to be that bit more open, the selection is both teams to score at odds against.
Both teams to score 23/20 @ Coral
