Bayern suffered their first away defeat in this year’s Champions League last week, going down 1-0 in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final tie against Real Madrid. In truth, it was a similar performance to the one they turned in against Manchester United in the previous round but the difference between that tie and this one is they managed to score an away goal in the first leg; they don’t have that advantage this time around. Since that match, football has been left in the background somewhat with the former Barcelona manager – and Pep Guardiola’s assistance – Tito Villanova, passing away after a long battle with throat cancer. It was business as usual for Bayern on the park as they thumped Werder Bremen 5-2 – and that was with a depleted side.
A home win with a clean sheet at this stage of the competition would normally be all a coach could ask for but there will be a tinge of disappointment for Carlo Ancelotti as his Real Madrid side had the best chances in the first leg. Despite, as I predicted, Bayern dominating possession, Madrid looked much more dangerous and they used their pace on the counter to great effect, especially in the first half. There may well have been some regret that they couldn’t add to their lead but the way in which they got in behind the Bayern defence will give them great satisfaction ahead of the return match. Like their European opponents, they too were convincing home victors in their domestic competition, beating Osasuna 4-0 on Saturday evening.
The current European Champions have not lost a meaningful home game in the Champions League since Inter beat them 3-2 in March 2011. Their only defeats since (Arsenal and City) were not enough to halt their progress so they will be confident they can turn this tie around. If they are to do that then they will have to have more variety about their game than they had last week. Their possession football failed to penetrate the Real Madrid defence often enough and as such, couldn’t create enough chances. That will definitely have to change in the return fixture.
Real Madrid are likely to be able to call upon both Gareth Bale and Cristiano Ronaldo from the start for their trip to Germany. Bale replaced the Ballon d’or winner in the second half last week as neither were fully fit. That doesn’t look like being the case for this match which means they will start a game together for the first time since the first leg of their quarter final fixture against Dortmund. They have shared 67 goals between them already and having both available will present a different problem for the home side, particularly with their frightening pace.
It is set up perfectly for an open and entertaining match, on Tuesday evening in Germany. Bayern have to be more direct when they have the ball if they are to reach their third successive Champions League final and retain their title. Madrid only really know how to play one way when they have the ball and will look to contain their hosts for long periods before hitting them on the break. The bet failed us last week but I’m even more confident this time around, take both teams to score.
Both teams to score 7/12 @ Unibet
