CSKA Moscow V Lille
Tuesday, 22 November 2011 – 17:00 GMT
UEFA Champions League, Group B
I was convinced reigning French champions Lille would have a prominent role to play in Europe this season, but at this rate they’ll consider themselves extremely fortunate to still be involved in continental competition after Christmas.
Les Douges sit bottom of Group B on two-points, after failing to win any of their four group games so far, and are three points adrift of Trabzonspor and CSKA Moscow in third and second respectively. Defeat in Russia on Tuesday, coupled with a draw or better for Trabzonspor in Turkey, where they host runaway leaders Inter Milan, and Lille would be eliminated from Europe altogether.
Doesn’t get much bigger for Lille, does it? Yet there is very little to suggest they’ll triumph in the Russian capital. Their flight was delayed, which meant any opportunity to familiarize themselves with their unique surroundings – the Luzhniki Stadium is famous for its artificial pitch – was lost; their away record in this competition reads a dismal W1 D3 L7, while Sunday’s goalless stalemate in Toulouse stretched their winless run in all competitions to four.
Moreover, conditions in Moscow will greatly favour the hosts, who are accustomed to playing in sub-zero temperatures. However, hosts CSKA aren’t in tip-top shape either. On Saturday they were defeated by Rubin Kazan – at home – stretching their run without a win to three, while it is now just five wins from their last eighteen matches
The Army Men will also be shorn of several key players, but none more important or influential than striker Seydou Doumbia. The Ivorian has scored 24 in all competitions this season – four in four in this competition – but will sit out Tuesday’s pivotal game because of suspension, after seeing red on Match Day 4 in Turkey.
Although CSKA manager Leonid Slutsky has done his best to play down the significance of Doumbia’s absence, the Ivorian will be sorely missed. Brazilian Vagner Love will now carry the goalscoring burden for the 2009/10 quarter-finalists – though that isn’t reassuring. Love only has eight goals for the season, 18 shy of his prolific strike partner, and does have a tendency to go missing – proverbially speaking.
Lille have massively underachieved in Europe so far this season. This is a team who stormed to the French league title last season. Their big names, such likes as Benoit Pedrotti, Eden Hazard and Joe Cole, simply haven’t performed. But it’s now or never; lose and they are all but out of Europe, win and qualification is back on the table.
Perhaps I am glutton for punishment, I don’t know, but I’m going to persevere with Lille. CSKA aren’t the most reliable of sides, are shorn of their star man, and although they should thrive in favourable conditions, Lille have plenty of star quality in their ranks and at odds of over 2/1 to win a match they simply must win, I consider them value.
Lille really ought to have won the reverse encounter in the North of France, squandering a 2-0 lead in the closing stages to draw 2-2; they were dominant with the ball, created the clearer openings and were generally the superior outfit.
Recommended Bet: Lille to WIN – 23/10 Boylesports
