Betting strategies/systems – Do they work? Why, or why not.
Why do some strategies and systems work for some people and not others?March 12th, 2012 / cyril
The older we get the wiser we get. Or should. This really should apply to our betting methods/strategies. Early in my betting career, (I was 15 y.o. at the time), I was fortunate (?) to collect on a 6d e.w. accumulator. £1.12.6d. Not a princely sum but a HUGE profit for an outlay of one shilling. (5p in today’s coinage).
Now I was over the moon, as I’d discovered a way to make easy money. Or so I thought. As you can imagine my winnings didn’t last long. E.W accumulators were put on day after day. Suddenly my winnings had all vanished. Plus a few shillings of my pocket money. I was livid. I’d found a way to win money hadn’t I? So why wasn’t it working as it should be working.
Some 60 years later, the same thing is still happening. To others, thank goodness.
Finding a winning system or strategy is a thankless task. You find what you think is the real thing only to encounter the bane of every punters life, the losing run. No matter how good you are you’ll hit the wall eventually.
What is even worse is someone else telling you how well they are doing with exactly the same system. You’re losing yet they are winning. How? If you can find the answer, you’re more than half way to your fortune. For some reason, a system that wins for one person will fail for another.
This phenomenon has been rife in betting circles since the time David took Goliath for a ride.
Why should a system work for one punter but not the next? In my view it is simply the way the rules are explained or the way in which they are interpreted by the person using the system.
Lay the draw – betting strategy
A perfect example of this is something I found while browsing the internet.
Probably the most popular and most basic strategy used on football betting is LAY the DRAW. Who amongst us didn’t want to go running down the road shouting “Eureka” when we first became aware of this “money cow”, or so we thought?
It can be found in many guises. The basic rules, however, are the same in each one. So how come some people win when they use but others lose. The way I see it is that they use the basic rules but apply them differently.
The rules of any system or strategy are the means to an end. To remove all the chaff from the wheat. In the most basic of systems this is easy enough. However it does become a little harder as we progress to more involved and more elaborate systems. The type I’m thinking about are those that require the punter to choose between match A and match B. This is where the problem really asserts itself. Almost invariably the wrong game will be chosen. It’s Sod’s Law. This is where the punter’s cash is won or most likely lost.
The biggest bug bears in Lay the Draw, are, a) the 0 – 0 and b) the underdog scoring first.
For me, this is the prime example of why a system will work for one punter but not his mate. It’s simply down to the wrong choice by the punter. This is one thing that cannot be allowed for in the system rules. It’s the “free choice” thing which always seems to work for the guy next door but not for you.
So essentially, making a system work is down to the individuals knowledge and experience in the field.
Where Lay the Draw is concerned there are a number of things which need to be taken into account. One which I’ve noticed very often is when the liquidity is fairly low. If other punters are shying away from the game, maybe you should too.
It’s no coincidence that these games seldom seems to go to form. Use the more knowledgeable persons thoughts to your advantage. If they don’t want to know, neither should you. They obviously will have some “get out of jail” plans when things backfire. And they will, from time to time.
The correct choice of matches is really the cornerstone for LTD. Next, you need a couple of “get outs” for when things don’t go your way. Especially for when the underdog scores first. Also for the times when you don’t have 0 – 0 insurance.
Then there will be times when you wonder whether or not to take your profit or let the bet run when the jolly scores first.
unfortunately you’ll need to make the correct call when the times comes. However be assured that sometimes you’ll make the wrong decision. Everybody does from time to time. Rest assured tho’ that if you’ve done your homework in the first place, you’ll make fewer than the average punter. One point I would make is, if you’re playing for smaller stakes, don’t be afraid to let the game run when the favourite scores first. If however you’re trying to build bank for the future, take your profit as soon as you can.
A system that wins for one person will fail for another
So, back to the original question. Why do some strategies and systems work for some people and not others? Everything I’ve mentioned above is important as are temperament and of course, greed. The one “biggie” is however, studying form. It might mean a night or even two beside the fire, getting “her indoors” to keep a supply of tea coming along regularly, but it will pay off, “big time”.
I recently came across a reference to some early Victorian vulgarity. I noticed that HEAD was referred to as JOLLY.
I wonder if there is any connection to the JOLLY as we know it. In this instance JOLLY could mean HEAD of the betting.
just a thought.
We are to lose the oldest PREMIERSHIP referee when Peter Walton goes over to the M.L.S. as their refereeing supremo.
So we lose another of the reliable whistlers.
Take care with your bets and be LUCKY.
£200 bonus at Bet365
£25 free bet at William Hill
£50 free bet at Paddy Power
£50 free bet at Sportingbet