La Liga

Recently I have been scouring the “net” to see what is “Flavour of the Month” etc. I came across a thread on a forum in which the writer gave sketchy details of his interpretation of BTTS. He hasn’t been “proofing” for long, three Saturdays, in fact. That’s not what interests me, however. What does come up is his strike rate. He covers Scottish Premiership, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A and Ligue 1 as well as the five English leagues I’ve looked at in the recent past. He selects the best nine matches each match day from these leagues, according to his rating system. It’s not the selection method I’m interested in. It’s his success rate. Up to now, he has had 18 correct plus one void from twenty seven selections. A little above 66.6%, which is better than the best in the five English leagues. Even though he has a good success rate the odds are a problem. A mean average appears to be around 1.66. At this level it would be necessary to have SIX winning selections out of NINE. Again we’re at that 66.6% mark. However this level of winning bets would only give approximately ONE point profit. At a level single point win on each selection. The suggested bets are 4 match accumulators. This would necessitate a slightly better level of SEVEN winners from each nine selections to ensure a profit. Even though this is only ONE more successful match it would appear to be bucking the odds. Not something which is recommended.

So it will be necessary to find a different route to find a successful answer to the problem.
Our FIVE leagues seem to have settled at a fair level of BTTS. The holiday period has provided very little change in each league’s average. The most noticeable being the Premiership dipping below 60%.

Perhaps a voyage into the European leagues will pay some dividends. A quick check on each of the major European leagues gave the following figures.

Italy 96/180 53.3%

Spain 87/170 51.2%

Germany 85/153 55.5%

France 85/190 50.0%

Scot Prem 68/118 57.6%

Surprisingly the Jocks come out on top of this particular pile. It does appear though that foreign defences are a little stronger than those in the English leagues. One thing worth noting however is, BTTS matches tend to come in batches on the same day. For instance there were a couple of Saturdays when Scottish matches returned 5 out of six games. Some study of these streaks will pay dividends in the long run. In reality, any match is an even money bet to end with goals being scored by both sides. Also, and even money bet with only one, or neither side scoring. Working within such a restricted confine, finding “VALUE” can be a daunting task. It’s clear that some hard work needs to be applied to find a strategy/system for weeding out the chaff. There is an alternative which might well suit some punters. In a large majority of games, getting OVER even money is there for the taking IF you back against the flow. Bet that there will only be one team doing the scoring. Whilst stats tell us that there will be fewer winners with this bet, the “extra” on the odds will often make it well worthwhile.

Current form is a “must”, for taking in to account a teams scoring possibilities. Also. don’t forget head to heads. One aspect of form that does require close scrutiny, is a teams AWAY ability where scoring is concerned.

Teams from the middle half of the league table are quite likely to hit the net against better placed opponents than against the lesser able sides.

Something else to look at, is, teams seldom go more than two games without scoring.

Hope that 2013 is profitable for us all.

-> BTTS for Premier League
-> BTTS Betting Premiership
-> BTTS Betting League One
-> BTTS Betting League Two
-> BTTS Betting Conference League

 
(This article was written on the January 7th by our expert Cyril but our editor was very busy and did not manage to publish until now. Sorry for that!)

Want live streams and a risk free bet for your El Clasico betting this week, then head to online betting site Unibet who are providing both. Tuesday night will bring the two Spanish giants back together again to finish the business in the Copa del Rey that they started at the end of January. Barcelona snatched a 1-1 away draw at the Bernabeu and will have that precious away goal to take back to the Nou Camp. However, the mighty Catalans haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last eleven games in all competitions, so Madrid’s Cristiano Ronaldo will probably be ready to pounce on any backline weaknesses.

Following the Tuesday night cup clash, the two rivals will go toe to toe again on the weekend, as they face each other in the La Liga, this time at the Bernabeu. The two sides drew in their previous league clash this season and out of the four times that they have met already this season, both have produced a win and two draws. So there is little ground to be given and if you want to watch both El Clasico matches this week, then head to Unibet, as they are providing live streams for both matches. On top of that, get a risk free bet as well with their great El Clasico mobile promotion.

Bet a minimum of £30 through your mobile on Barcelona v R. Madrid on Tuesday 26th February, and online betting site Unibet will give you a £10 Live Risk Free Bet on R. Madrid v Barcelona in the Spanish League on Saturday 2nd March!

A great opportunity to enjoy the dramatic live action from both of the important games as the two jostle for supremacy again. Barcelona have a sixteen point lead over third placed Real Madrid in La Liga, while the Catalans knocked out Real Madrid from last season’s Copa del Rey. Will it be more of the same with Barcelona just having the edge over their rivals, or will Jose Mourinho’s men be able to strike a blow? Who will win the big individual duel between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo? Messi has 17 goals in 23 games against Real Madrid, while Ronaldo has seven goals in his last seven El Clasicos.

The great Unibet offer is open to new customers as well as existing ones at Unibet. The popular betting site offer a great welcome bonus of a risk free £20 bet for new customers through their internet site and there is a £10 risk free mobile bet when you get started with your mobile betting.

Having looked at the correct score scene in the Premiership, I thought it might be opportune to check through the foreign leagues and the Championship, as well. The comparisons will vary somewhat as not all leagues play the same number of matches. To help overcome these differences I’m basing all figures on a league playing 380 games. So alongside actual returned figures, where appropriate, I’ll show in brackets the comparative figures for 380 games.

First of all I’ll look at the Championship.

The Championship consists of twenty four teams, so the total of games played is FIVE HUNDRED and FIFTY TWO. By far the largest sample to be looked at.

The final columns are,(1) the total of both the “draw” columns.(2) Percentage of games covered by the SIX scores.

Correct scores on foreign soils

The Championship doesn’t have any outstanding figures when using the ADJUSTED stats. They do have a “draws” total well in line with the majority of the others in the sample.

SPAIN, La Liga. The total for 2 – 0 is surprisingly low, especially as 2 – 1 is almost double that figure. Do the defences relax when getting a two goal cushion?

ITALY, Serie A. Renown for their tight defensive games, it’s surprising to see them co-leading the 2 – 0 column. Their 0 – 0 total is quite in keeping with the accepted knowledge of the Italian game.

GERMANY, Bundesliga 1. Here the most prolific score is 1 – 1. However closely following on is a score not usually favoured, 1 – 2. This does go against the general trend of the other leagues. There is their liking for a 1 – 1 rather than a scoreless draw.

FRANCE, Division 1. With the reputation for tight games, it is surprising to see so few 0 – 0 games compared to more than double that amount for 1 – 1 results. The overall total of drawn games is well beyond other leagues.
Low scoring games do seem to be the order of the day, however. with a dramatic drop between 2 – 1 and 3 – 1.

PORTUGAL, Liga. The smallest league of the eight we’re looking at. Playing just 204 games in their season. Doesn’t really give a team much scope to redeem themselves if they have a bad start to their season. 1 – 0 and 2 – 1 are the stand-out scores, closely followed by 0 – 0. However, 1 – 0 is by far the best “adjusted” figure for that score amongst our eight leagues.

Netherlands, Eridivision. The “adjusted” figures give a better view of these figures than the bare stats. Whilst the total of the two draw columns are pretty well in line with most of the others, once we reach 3 – 1 the figures become more erratic. Not really a league to employ when trying to forecast match scores. In total, 66 matches had a score in which at least one of the sides scored FOUR or more goals.

BELGIUM, Jupiler. At first the figures don’t appear to be anything special, but take a closer look. They are the most compact of the whole set-up. Their draw figures fit in well with the others, 2 – 0, 2 – 1 and 3 – 1 are a batch well worth considering for any correct score perm. Their overall performance for the six scores is 66.66% of all matches. By far the best performer
here.

I would think that any league with a percentage figure over 51% should be worth consideration when looking for those elusive correct scores. The Portugal Liga, France Division 1 and Belgium’s Jupiler Leagues will be amongst those I’ll be using in the coming season.

The beauty of using more than one league will give the chance to do a little trading as they mostly play on different days.
A chance not to miss.

The real test is, how to use these and earlier stats to our advantage?
A lot depends on the choice of odds you wish to cover. Any home side offered at less than 1.58 (4/7) should be considered very likely to win without conceding. As the odds offered about the favourite lengthens so does the likelihood of them conceding.
Closely matched sides are where the biggest odds are going to be offered over the scoring outcome.
Two recent games had (1) an even money favourite and (2) an odds on favourite. The correct score betting went like this.

These odds show the subtle differences when a side are being offered at odds-on. It is strange that 0 – 0 is quoted at 9/1 for both games. In fact this is very much the “normal” price for this score in the large majority of matches. I do think that the layers are being pretty mean when offering what is virtually a “one size fits all” for a scoreless game. Unless a game looked extremely close to call I’d always be tempted to give 0 – 0 a miss.

Maybe I’ll be able to look at using these stats in a few more ways, in the future.

Remember, bet with caution.

Well, Barcelona’s incredible second half performance at the Bernabeu on Saturday night to beat Real Madrid 3-1, has led to a market influx of bets on them to win La Liga again. That was a huge win for the defending Champions, as they were three points behind Jose Mourinho’s Madrid going into the match, and were a game ahead as well. So that triumph of style over tactics was a huge boost for Pep Guardiola and his side, and showed their rivals that they are still the force to be reckoned with. That win for Barcelona put them back on level points with Real Madrid, although Mourinho’s men still have a game in hand to look forward to.

The win has naturally led to a spark of wanting to get a wager down on Barcelona, who were starting to look second best to Real Madrid this season, on winning La Liga again. They are now at a best market price of 5/6 with BetFred to win the league title, this season, with Real Madrid close behind at Evens with SkyBet. Naturally only of these two are going to win La Liga, the might and the power which they are able to field (both teams have now scored 50 goals already this season) is just too much over a long season for anyone else to deal with.

Third placed Valencia’s defeat on Saturday didn’t do anything to change this, because they could have been within four points of the leaders had they beaten Real Betis. The crunch match could all come down to the rematch at the Nou Camp later in the season. But for now, Barcelona have gained a huge psychological boost, yes, they were lucky at times against Madrid on Saturday, but when you get a lucky break then you have to capitalize. That is just what Barcelona did. Will they retain their title in La Liga betting?

Remember that you can watch live La Liga streams with online betting exchange BetFair. The highly popular exchange offers free live streams from the Spanish league, giving superb coverage which is the natural partner for some live in play betting action. Just head to BetFair and sign up to become a member and enjoy their wealth of live streams which they provide. New customers to BetFair can get a free £20 bet and up to £1000 in cash back for their first 30 days of betting on the exchange!

It has been a great season so far in Spain’s La Liga Primera, and if you have been missing out on the action, then you may want to head to online betting exchange BetFair, where you can watch free live streams! Real Madrid have sneaked their way into top spot, just one point ahead of their great rivals Barcelona. Jose Mourinho’s Madrid haven’t had a perfect season, losing one match, but they have managed to pick up more wins that last year’s La Liga winners, Barca. Madrid have now won their last six straight, and not only have Real and Barcelona both hit 32 each in their respective 10 matches, the defenses have been remarkable. Real Madrid have only conceded 6 goals so far this season, two more than Barca. But it was surprise package Levante who had been leading the way up until last week, when they suffered their first loss of the season. It had been a remarkable run of seven straight wins for Levante, including a 1-0 win over Real Madrid along the way. They have been one of the success stories in La Liga this season, but they lost their unbeaten record last weekend against Osasuna. So it will be interesting to see just how they bounce back from that deficit. If you want to get yourself closer to this weekend’s action, before they take the international break next week, then BetFair stream some great live coverage from La Liga for their customers. The Spanish league is one full of flair and attacking sensibilities, and makes for some great entertainment. So, by getting right into the live action with BetFair live streams, it opens up the doors of possibilities when it comes to live in play betting. Being able to get a real feel for the match, through BetFair Live Video can make Live in play betting so much easier, as you can get a feel for just how the game is going. The BetFair live video streams really are a superb service from the highly popular betting exchange, and is a great feature in delivery top quality content to their customers.

New customers wanting to get in on the Live La Liga streams, have the added bonus of being able to take advantage of BetFair’s sign up bonus. New customers can either get a No Risk £20 bet on their first stake, which means that if your first bet on a new BetFair account loses, you will get your lost stake back up to the value of £20, or you opt for the £10 to £1000 Cashback sign up bonus. In this offer, the more you bet within your first 30 days on a new account, then the bigger  your Cashback bonus will be! Great offers, whichever way you want to go, and the highly rated, highly successful Betting Exchange, which is a superb alternative to regular online bookmakers, have all of your Live La Liga matches covered as well. Tune in this weekend to see the likes of Seville, Villareal and Espanyol in action!

It has been a short six months in charge of Inter Milan for Rafa Benitez. After running out on Liverpool after a poor season, Inter have been rapidly slipping backwards under his guidance, and now the Italian club has lost patience with the Spaniard. The reason being cited was because Benitez was asking for money to go shopping with, and this came after Inter had lifted the Club World Cup on the weekend. Even though he won that, he clearly wasn’t happy about the support he was receiving from the board at Inter, saying that the club could carry on and blame him solely for poor performances, or the club could stump up the money to buy a handful of better players. The players there didn’t do a bad job last season, so Benitez himself really has to be looked at. He has certainly shot himself in the foot now, and it will be interesting to see where his next job would be. With a history of very poor signings at Liverpool, which subsequently sunk them, he hasn’t been able to take a strong team and even solidify their status. Inter have lost three of their last four matches, including a 1-0 defeat at home against leaders AC Milan. So who will be willing to take a chance on him next? How damaged is his reputation? There is some time for Inter to get a new boss, as the Italian league is on a winter break.

The biggest problem was that Benitez had been trying to fill the big shoes that Jose Mourinho had left behind at Inter Milan. Mourinho won Serie A, the Italian Cup and the Champions League last year, and now Inter are a long way short of that. They are a massive 13 points behind rivals AC Milan, who top the Italian domestic league, and Inter could only finish second to Tottenham Hotspur in their Champions League qualification group. With a tie against Bayern Munich to come, there are tough times ahead for Inter. But to Benitez himself. Where will he end up? He is 10/11 at SkyBet to stay in La Primera Division, and out slightly at 9/4 with SkyBet to make a move back to the English Premier League. With West Ham reportedly pressuring Avram Grant, and Blackburn looking for a new permanent manager, and Gerrard Houllier struggling at Aston Villa, is there room back in the English top flight for Benitez? In a twist of irony, with Roy Hodgson struggling at Liverpool, the Reds are the favourite English club at Stan James priced at 8/1, but that is highly unlikely. So too, realistically is a move back to the Premier League, although Blackburn seems the best fit if it were to happen. The Spaniard will likely stay in mainland Europe, and a move to the Bundesliga, perhaps to take over from Steve McLaren who is under pressure at Wolfsburg, seems plausible enough. There are likely to be openings for him at Atletico Madrid, Seville and in particular Valencia (where he really made his name before moving to Liverpool), but the big question is, how desirable is his services now, following his outburst? Back me or sack me? He got his answer.

Unlike British football, continental Europe wisely decide to take a nice break over the winter, and two of the most prominent leagues, the Spanish Primera Division and the German Bundesliga are on hiatus until the new year. La Liga get back into the swing of things on Sunday, January 2, with Barcelona at home to Levante and Getafe hosting Real Madrid. Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona have the edge in the title race, which is quite an extraordinary one, holding a two point lead over rivals Real Madrid. The biggest result of the season on the Spanish Primera Division, was Barca’s 5-0 thrashing of Jose Mourinho’s Real Madrid. The two side have lost two matches between them all season (in a total of 32 matches played. Barcelona have dropped just four points in their sixteen and Real Madrid have dropped just six (one loss and two draws). That is quite staggering, and second placed Madrid are a massive eight points clear of third placed Villarreal. Barcelona are averaging over three goals per match, hitting an incredibly 51 goals in their sixteen matches. Talk about the best in Europe, and here are two of them. It is little surprise that they are the front runners for the Champions League too. Over in the Bundesliga, giants Bayern Munich have not been having things their own way this year, and are actually down in fifth place going into the break. It is Dortmund who are the team to catch, holding a huge ten point lead over Mainz after just 17 matches. Fourteen wins from their 17 matches have fired Dortmund to the top, in one of the toughest leagues in the world.

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Sunday, November 29
Kick-off: 6pm GMT

El Classico. The name says it all. This is the heavyweight clash in La Liga between two of the strongest teams in Europe, when at the Camp Nou on Sunday, the world gets treated to the showcase that is Barcelona vs. Real Madrid.

This fixture is more than just a bitter rivalry, it is also a contest to brag as to who really is the best team in Europe. The Spanish league continues to be one of the strongest on the continent, with Barca, Real and Sevilla going well in the Champions League, and the national team recently leap-frogging above Brazil at the top of the FIFA World Rankings. This is a battle between the best of the best, and should produce a classic game, especially if they stick to their game plans and go for broke instead of being cautious. On a day of derby games in the English Premier League, this Spanish rivalry is always one of firey contests, with emotions often running over.

Real Madrid were buoyed by the sight of Cristiano Ronaldo making a 20-minute cameo appearance in their midweek Champions League fixture. That was the ex-Manchester United man’s first run out for his clubs for about eight weeks. For Barcelona, their enigmatic figure, Argentine Lionel Messi, is also fit again after injury, and the derby will see them go head to head in a tussle for supremacy. Barcelona will also welcome back striker Zlatan Imbrahimovic for Sunday’s game. Ronaldo and Messi are the stand out talents on both sides, which is saying something considering the names that get pencilled into the respective team sheets every week.

The amount of  talent on show is simply staggering. Not only is there Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi, but when you run down a list of names which include Kaka, Xabi Alonso, Guti, Lassana Diarra, Raul, van Nistlerooy, Benzema, Thierry Henry and Iniesta, then the talent is unquestionable. Real Madrid are of course, famed for collecting together the best players in the world, seemingly regardless of cost. It has led them to the current standing of top of La Liga by one point over Barca, but Barca are still unbeaten in the league, whereas Real Madrid have lost one game. A win for Madrid would open up a convincing and commanding lead at the top.

This is new generation of Galacticos in Madrid, backing up the golden generation of the likes of David Beckham and Zinidane Zidane. That injection of cash from Real President Perez, failed to bring home the silverware intended, and actually it gave rise to Barcelona’s success instead. Madrid’s coup of Beckham, meant that Barcelona instead ending up signing some Brazilian guy called Ronaldinho, which would inject good fortunes on the Catalan side. Barcelona won the treble last year, the first team in Spanish history to do so, all under the guidance of Pep Guardiola, who has come under fire this term, due to performances in the Champions League.

The two sides had contrasting games in the Champions League, with Real Madrid getting an expected win over FC Zurich, while Barcelona, who are in a tight battle for a qualification spot, rallied back to their best for a needed win over Jose Mourinho’s Inter Milan. Madrid have a lot to prove, after Barcelona ran riot in their last meeting in the league last season, running out 6-2 winners over them. There is actually, having watched the teams ply their trade in the Champions League, a difference in class between the two giants. One thing that stands out, is that Barcelona look to be more of a team unit, while Madrid at times look like strangers still trying to get used to a way of playing with the personnel at their disposal. That could mean that there is a lot more to come from Real Madrid and coach Manuel Pellegrini.

El Classico brings together some of the best players in the world. Barcelona are the stronger of the two sides, and Real Madrid are failing to bring their A-game to the pitch when facing some of the best teams. However, Real Madrid look to be the form team with four wins and draw from their last five league games, whereas Barcelona have won two and drawn three. Camp Nou advantage here though, should mean that Barca will be good enough to take back some initiative in La Liga and press home their dominance over their bitter rivals.

Match Prices:
Barcelona to win: 10/11 at Totesport
Draw: 11/4 at Bet365
Real Madrid to win: 10/3 at Coral

Last four head to head league meetings:
Real Madrid 2 – Barcelona 6
Barcelona 2 – Real Madrid 0
Real Madrid 4 – Barcelona 1
Barcelona 0 – Real Madrid 1

Betting Stats:
Barcelona have a 100% home record
Real Madrid have a 60% away win record
Last 10 matches: Barcelona W7, D3, L0 – Real Madrid W8, D1, L1

Betting Tip: Barcelona -0.75 Asian Handicap – 15/14 at Expekt

Not much stands out for me this weekend, of course Barcelona are flying and scoring goals by the bucket fall so it would be a surprise if Recreativo, fourth from bottom, managed anything other than a sound thrashing but at odds of around 4/11 on Barca, I don’t think I will be taking them, probably just a personally thing but I never feel entirely sure of Barca away.

If you’re feeling brave, a small bet on Gijon to win away at Valencia might be worth a shout, Valencia were surprisingly beaten by Santander in their last home game and when you compare the two teams last five games, Valencia WWDLW and Gijon WWWWL the 9/1 offered by Stan James looks pretty generous.

Espanyol v Numancia

Is probably the only game I will have a little punt at this weekend. Espanyol have looked solid enough especially at home where their only defeat this season came against Barca 2-1 courtesy to a very late and suspect penalty. Espanyol will be looking to push up the league and challenge the top six, whilst Numancia, who have been in poor form, find themselves at the wrong end of the table and will be desperate to pick up something and climb out of the bottom three. Unfortunately for them it doesn’t look likely, considering they’ve failed to pick up a single point away all season, bearing that in mind then prices around 8/11 seem fairly reasonable to me.

Espanyol home win