stan james

Since 1999, only two teams outside of the Old Firm have won the Scottish Cup. Dundee United, two years ago, and Hearts, in 2006, are the only clubs who have managed to break the Glasgow monopoly so it’s no surprise that bookmakers aren’t looking outside the big two as the SPL clubs join the competition.

Holders Celtic have won the Scottish Cup four times in the last eight years and are 9/4 with Stan James and William Hill to retain their trophy. The Hoops started the season slowly but a 10-match winning run, combined with Rangers‘ loss of form, has propelled them to the top of the SPL and manager Neil Lennon will now be eyeing a double that seemed most unlikely just a few weeks ago when the Gers had a big lead in the title race. Given their history in the competition and current form it’s difficult to put anyone off backing Celtic, who have reached the final 19 times alongside their record 35 wins, though their arch-rivals can also be backed at the same 9/4 with the same two firms. Big hitters might consider backing both, which would give you combined odds of 5/8, as the Old Firm are a class above the other teams in Scotland, though it’s 10 years since Rangers and Celtic met in the final itself in Hampden.

Hearts are next best in most lists and are available at 12/1 with bet365 and William Hill. Paulo Sergio‘s team look to have a straightforward task against part-timers Auchinleck Talbot in the fourth round but the Edinburgh club’s financial woes may lead to several of their first-team squad departing before the end of the transfer window with their places being taken by members of the youth team. With potential disaster looming, there is surely better value elsewhere if looking for a team to challenge the domination of the Old Firm or profit from them being drawn against each other before the final. Of course, you will need luck in-running but how about a speculative each-way bet on Dundee United?

Outside of the top two, the Terrors (a general 14/1) have the best recent record in the competition and traditionally do better in the second of the season than the first. Admittedly, they’ve hardly set the SPL alight this term but always look as though they have a goal or two in them which is more than be said about the likes of Aberdeen (20/1 with bet365, Stan James and William Hill) or Hibernian (a general 25/1). Kilmarnock (a general 33/1) look to be on a downward curve and Motherwell (14/1 in most places) have also hit the buffers but Dunfermline Athletic have a proud recent record in the Scottish Cup having reached the final twice since the turn of the century. Jim McIntyre‘s side currently prop up the SPL but the cup may bring some relief from their woes and the Pars can be backed at 66/1 with Betfred, Coral and William Hill, which means you are getting 33/1 about them reaching the final again in the place part of an each-way bet. Providing they get through a tricky opener at Inverness CT and the draw is kind thereafter, those odds will start to look attractive.

Plenty of usual suspects face the starter in the latest of what is fast becoming a pre-requisite handicap chase over 2m5f at every Cheltenham meeting. This one is sponsored by Victor Chandler and champion trainer Paul Nicholls once again provides the top weight in The Nightingale (a general 14/1) and a fancied runner further down the weights in the shape of Ghizao.

Ruby Walsh rides the latter so it’s fair to presume he is the stable selection. Bookmakers and punters certainly think so and the eight-year-old, who beat subsequent Arkle Chase winner Captain Chris twice as a novice, is only a general 6/1. He hasn’t run badly in either start this season but never really jumped with any fluency behind Quantitiveeasing over C&D last time and has ground to make up on Calgary Bay on that run.

Henrietta Knight‘s gelding usually runs well at Cheltenham but hasn’t won for a while. But that could all change in this New Year feature if he can lie up with the pace as he’ll be reeling in the front-runners up the hill. At 8/1 with most layers, Calgary Bay looks a cast-iron each-way bet and Duke Of Lucca should also be in the firing-line. Novices don’t have a great recent record in this contest but Philip Hobbs’ charge could be the exception that proves the rule. A very decent hurdler over this sort of distance, he spread-eagled an ordinary field at Wincanton after a couple of sighters and, though his jumping will be put under pressure by these experienced handicappers, it would be no surprise to see him go close at Boylesports and Stan James‘ 6/1.

Crescent Island (14/1 with Boylesports) and Hector’s Choice (20/1 with Victor Chandler) look closely matched on Newbury running behind Chance Du Roy and are capable of making their presence felt but it would need a giant leap of faith to support Cape Tribulation (21/1 on betfair) after he was pulled up early on at Haydock two weeks ago and the bottom six on the racecard are all carrying more than their allotted weight. The best of those may be Havingotascoobydo, who has been placed twice over shorter trips at Cheltenham recently. He can be backed at 7/1 with Skybet and William Hill, though his jumping can still be a little novicey at times. Hell’s Bay won a big prize last season but was pulled up when favourite on his reappearance at Ascot, hence his 14/1 quote from Betfred, Boylesports and totesport. Calgary Bay is taken to land the spoils with Duke Of Lucca to chase him home.

• Calgary Bay to win the Bet With Your Mobile at Victor Chandler Chase at a general 8/1
• Duke Of Lucca to win the Bet With Your Mobile at Victor Chandler Chase at 6/1 with Boylesports and Stan James

It’s no surprise that number one seeds the Czech Republic are hot favourites to win the season-opening Hopman Cup 2012 at the Burswood Dome in Perth. The Czechs have a very powerful line-up on paper for the mixed doubles tournament with Wimbledon women’s singles champion Petra Kvitova teamed up with big-serving Tomas Berdych. Berdych won the China Open in 2011 and is ranked seven in the world. The Czech Republic are no bigger than Evens with Skybet and Stan James to come out on top in Perth but neither Kvitova nor Berdych have a doubles pedigree, which may just be their Achilles Heel, and at the odds I’d rather have a punt on France.

The French are in the second group alongside hosts Australia (a general 10/1), Spain (a general 9/1) and China (35/1 with Stan James). The latter include French Open champion Li Na but she’s teamed up with Wu Di, who struggles to maintain a place among the top 500 in the men’s game and is unlikely to contribute many points to the Chinese cause. France, on the other hand, have women’s world number nine Marion Bartoli and the experienced Richard Gasquet. Both are very capable singles players but, just as importantly, have won several doubles titles between them so should thrive in the Hopman Cup format. Victor Chandler are out on a limb in offering 5/1 about the French winning the tournament overall and Skybet‘s 5/4 about them coming out on top in Group B can cover potential level stake losses should they come up short in the final stages.

Considering their short price overall, Betfred‘s 8/13 about the Czech Republic winning Group A will be popular though this is probably the most competitive section of the two. World number one Caroline Wozniacki should give Denmark an edge in the women’s singles and the Danes are a general 20/1 to succeed overall, while the USA team features the fast-improving Mardy Fish who reached the quarter-finals at Wimbledon and the last 16 at Flushing Meadow in 2011. Unfortunately, partner Bethanie Mattek-Sands may struggle to hold her end up and the Americans make little appeal at bet365 and totesport‘s 7/1.

There looks a to be a cracking four-match Test series in prospect when Australia take on India, the action getting under way at the MCG on Boxing Day.

It’s a fascinating clash with Australia a team in transition but showing commendable resilience to win in Sri Lanka and draw a two-match series in South Africa after losing the Ashes earlier this year. They were, however, unable to beat New Zealand at home recently, showing their inconsistency. The Aussies do have some new talent coming through like Ed Cowan, who gets his chance at the top of the batting order alongside David Warner with the Australian selectors finally losing patience with Phil Hughes. Daniel Christian and Mitchell Starc are also in the home squad but Shane Watson and Ryan Harris still aren’t fit and Mitchell Johnson‘s contribution with bat and ball will be badly missed. Question marks, too, about how much longer Ricky Ponting and Michael Hussey will be around. Both look increasingly vulnerable against pace and, while their influence in the dressing room remains invaluable, there will come a time when one or the other will be blocking the progress of a promising youngster.

Given the possible susceptibility of the Australian middle-order to fast bowlers, therefore, India will be expecting much of Ishant Sharma and Zaheer Khan – but therein lies the problem of predicting how this series will develop. Both have been troubled by ankle problems in recent times, indeed Sharma has already been struggling in the Indians’ warm-up games. Without their quickies, it’s very difficult to see how India will take 20 wickets in a match despite the Aussies predilection to self-destruct on occasion. Let’s face it, there is unlikely to be much help for the spinners (though Graeme Swann enjoyed himself Down Under last winter). Likewise, however, how is Australia’s inexperienced attack to bowl out India‘s formidable batting line-up twice? MS Dhoni and his team have bounced back well from their humiliation in England, beating Bangladesh and the West Indies in subsequent series. Their ageing squad isn’t quite ready for the scrapheap just yet on that evidence and I fancy they may just know too much for their hosts, though don’t expect too many close finishes.

India can be backed at 107/50 to win the Test series in Australia with betfair and the 33/1 available at Ladbrokes and sportingbet for a 0-1 correct score could be interesting. I wouldn’t look beyond the 9/2 available at bet365, Skybet and Stan James about David Warner being Australia’s top batsman.

• India to win Test series in Australia at 107/50 (betfair)
• India to win series 1-0 at 33/1 (Ladbrokes and sportingbet)
• David Warner to be top Australian batsman at 9/2 (bet365, Skybet, Stan James)

Nicky Henderson‘s stable did this column a favour at Cheltenham last weekend and we’re going to nail our colours to the Upper Lambourn mast again this week in the Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle at Ascot.

Gibb River never managed a win on the Flat but has really found his niche over hurdles and the five-year-old looks the value bet at a general 8/1 in Saturday’s feature. The gelding’s only comparative failure so far under NH Rules came in last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, where he found the going too quick. His record on this week’s good to soft ground is examplary, however, and includes wins at Huntingdon, Plumpton and Wincanton. He made an eye-catching reappearance when third in a Listed event at Sandown, his first run in a handicap, earlier this month and there’s every reason to believe he’ll overturn that form here with runner-up Via Galilei with Barry Geraghty taking over the reins. Gary Moore‘s charge, a general 14/1, is talented but is a hard horse to catch right as he has to held up for a late run. I’d much rather be on the side of the more straightforward Gibb River.

Henderson also runs Rajdhani Express, fifth in that Sandown race but undoubtedly better on soft ground. He’s available at a general 16/1 but all of the money this week has been for Prospect Wells. A decent sort on the level, he’s done well since arriving at Paul Nicholls‘ yard this summer, winning novice hurdles at Chepstow and Newbury and finishing second in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in between. There’s just a chance that the handicapper has let him in lightly here but it’s unusual for the trainer to go down the handicap route so soon with a novice that may have Cheltenham pretensions and, at the general 7/2, he’s too short in the market now though Nicholls has left last week’s International Hurdle third Brampour (11/1 with Betfred, Stan James and totesport) in the race to ensure the weights don’t rise.

The latter is a four-year-old, as is Haydock second Marsh Warbler (a general 16/1), Irish challenger Sailors Warn (a general 10/1) and the prolific Abergavenny, who can be backed at 11/1 with Coral and Skybet. But that age group has a terrible record in this race having failed to provide a winner since the turn of the century. More interesting are Desert Cry (14/1 in most places), who made giant strides last season and defied a big weight on his reappearance at Haydock, and Act Of Kalanisi.

Richard Newland‘s representative can sometimes be left down by his jumping but he’s a decent performer when everything falls into place and ran a lot better than the final result suggests when third in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. He has a decent chance at the weights in this and, at the general 16/1, makes plenty of each-way appeal behind likely winner Gibb River.

Silent film homage The Artist has proved a surprise hit at the box office in America and leads the nominations for the 2012 Golden Globes. The French production, which was filmed in black and white, isn’t out in the UK until the 30th December but has already been tipped for best musical and comedy and its stars, Jean Dujardin and Berenice Bejo, are the early front-runners for best actor and actress.

The annual gala, which takes place on the 15th January, is the first major event of the Hollywood awards season and it’s often a good indicator of opinion ahead of the Oscars. Bearing that in mind, it’s no surprise that The Artist is currently heading the betting for Best Film at the Academy Awards at 7/4 with William Hill and bodog. Stephen Spielberg‘s evocative War Horse, 7/2 with Paddy Power, Skybet and Stan James, is also proving popular with punters in the category and Martin Scorcese‘s Hugo (8/1 with bodog, Skybet and Stan James) could make a late run. The Girl With A Dragon Tattoo (25/1 with Paddy Power and Skybet) has had mixed reviews, however, and looks as though it will continue to divide opinion as much as Stieg Larsson‘s orginal novel.

The good news about the Golden Globes is that Ricky Gervais will again host the event. Having torn Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie to shreds last year, which Hollywood superstar will get the full treatment from the British comic this time? Kenneth Branagh leads the British nominations in the Golden Globes, having been put forward as best supporting actor for playing Laurence Olivier opposite Michelle Williams‘ Marilyn Monroe in My Week With Marilyn. Williams is sure to be a front-runner for Best Actress at the Oscars for her role as the tragic blonde bombshell (currently a general 9/4) but Meryl Streep is receiving much acclaim for her portrayal of Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady. Having seen many Thatcher impersonators over the years, I’m not certain that Streep‘s version of the former PM is any better than Steve Nallon or Angela Thorne‘s depiction and the storyline is a little vague at times but it’s the kind of thing Hollywood loves so it’s no surprise that the multi-accented veteran is only a best 11/10 with Paddy Power, Stan James and William Hill to win Best Actress at the Oscars.

Experience of Aintree‘s Grand National fences should never be underestimated. Winning form at the track is an even bigger plus and that makes last year’s winner Hello Bud a very tempting proposition again in the Betfred Becher Chase, despite his advancing years.

Nigel Twiston-Davies‘ gelding will turn 14 on New Year’s Day and is at an age when most racehorses will be doing nothing more strenuous than nibbling a carrot or acting as the trainer’s hack. But Hello Bud is the exception to the rule and clearly enjoys the test these big fences pose. He’s only 3lb higher than 12 months ago when he had Ballyvesey (a general 20/1) back in fourth and his comeback fifth at Wincanton proves he is no back number. That outing should have blown away any cobwebs and the bold-jumping Hello Bud can light up Aintree again at the general 8/1.

Always Waining is another who rarely disappoints around Aintree and he’s won the Topham Chase for the past two years. Two recent runs over hurdles should have put him spot-on for this and Betfred are probably being a little generous in offering him at 12/1, though there is just a question mark about his stamina over this longer trip. Dessie Hughes has trained the winner of the Becher Chase twice in the last three years and relies on Rare Bob this time. Available at 12/1 with Boylesports, the nine-year-old has won four times over fences and has more chance in this than when reappearing in the Champion Chase at Down Royal last month, though still has his fair share of weight. Ireland may have more chance with Another Palm, who ran a cracker in the Cork Grand National last month having shown himself to be a progressive stayer in the spring. Still only a six-year-old, Noel Meade‘s chrage (a general 8/1) still has some scope though these fences will expose any lack of experience.

Huntingdon winner Max Bygraves (a general 16/1) is a doubtful stayer but Grand National fifth Niche Market (9/1 with most layers) will be staying on when others have cried enough and West End Rocker also has stamina in abundance, though it’s a little worrying that the 16/1 chance with Paddy Power, Stan James and Victor Chandler has failed to complete his last three starts.  Shalimar Fromentro (12/1 with Victor Chandler) and Swing Bill (a general 14/1) are also worth opposing but further rain would bring Bangor second Nicto De Beauchene into the equation at Skybet and sportingbet’s 11/1, though he’s high enough in the weights now.

A sports editor at the BBC has described the 10 nominees for this year’s Sports Personality of the Year as ‘one of the strongest fields I have ever seen on my time on the show’.  That’s a bit of a tall boast, given the number of ‘minority’ sports represented and the fact that there are three golfers on the list. The lack of female presence has also been noted. I can accept that it’s been a quiet year for British football, with no European Championships or World Cup, which explains the rare phenomenon of no overpaid Premier League players on the list, but why no women? Rebecca Adlington and Keri-Anne Payne both won gold at the World Swimming Championships in Shanghai, England’s women footballers only lost out in the quarter-finals of this year’s World Cup on penalties and Beth Tweddle has become a true superstar in gymnastics. The nation’s leading sports writers decided none of the above were worthy of the chance to challenge the men, however, though I must add that no-one sought to ask my opinion. Maybe it’s something to do with the fact that women’s sport is 20 times less likely to appear on British TV than the men’s equivalent. Good to see equality is being followed fervently in that quarter then.

Rant over and back to the list, however, and the widely-held belief that sprint cyclist Mark Cavendish will finally get the recognition his efforts deserve. This year’s Tour de France green jersey winner was recently awarded the MBE and victory in the Sports Personality of the Year would cap a memorable 12 months for the 26-year-old Isle Of Man cyclist, who also won the Road World Championships in September. He is now a best Evens with Betfred, Ladbrokes and totesport to pick up the award.

At 5/2 with sportingbet, Open champion Darren Clarke is the shortest-priced of the three golfers ahead of US Open champion Rory McIlroy (9/1 with bet365 and Stan James) and world number one Luke Donald (40/1 with bet365), though the veteran Ulsterman is largely that short on sentiment. For consistency at a high level, Andy Murray surely deserves more recognition than the general 100/1 quote though one suspects he’ll never win any like this until he cracks one of the Grand Slams. Alistair Cook is 66/1 on betfair but probably deserves a nomination more than his England Test captain Andrew Strauss (100/1 with Betfred, Coral and William Hill) but doesn’t appear to have any chance of beating either Mo Farah or Dai Greene. Considering we are still nine months away from the London Olympics, it’s remarkable that two athletes have made the top 10. Farah, winner of the 5000m at the World Championships, could be a shoe-in in 12 months time but may still be worth opposing at the general 8/1 this year as many potential voters will still know little of him.

Most eyes will be on the return to action of Cheltenham Gold Cup winners Kauto Star and Long Run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock this Saturday but there’s also a terrific Grade 2 contest at Ascot in the shape of the Amlin 1965 Chase.

The latter sees the second appearance this season of the brilliant Master Minded and Stan James may have their fingers burnt if they hold steady on their 6/4 quote about Paul Nicholls‘ former champion chaser, who won the race 12 months ago. The eight-year-old disappointed on his return to action at Aintree when last of three. But that run was just too bad to be true as he’d trounced the winner, Albertas Run, over the same C&D in April when Ascot rival Somersby (5/2 with Blue Square and 888sport) was a well-beaten third. Henrietta Knight‘s seven-year-old did finally end a frustrating sequence of placed efforts in a small race at Kempton last month but had also had a rear view of Master Minded on two previous occasion last term prior to that Aintree race and it’s difficult to see him reversing that form if the Nicholls chaser is back to his best.

Perhaps the most interesting runner in the Ascot feature is the grey Medermit. It’s never easy for second-season chasers but he made a solid start to the new campaign when making the most of Captain Chris‘ mishap to land the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter earlier this month. He beat subsequent Arkle Chase winner Captain Chris fair and square at Sandown in February but was found wanting at both Cheltenham and Aintree in the spring suggesting he has a bit to find to trouble the likes of Master Minded and Somersby at Ascot. However bet365, sportingbet and Ladbrokes‘ 5/1 is probably a fair price given that he’s got a lot more scope than his rivals.

The Sawyer is a 100/1 chance with Boylesports and deservedly so as he appears to have a lot to find at the weights and isn’t getting any younger but there may be a few interested in Kalahari King at Boylesports, Paddy Power and William Hill‘s 8/1. Ferdy Murphy‘s charge has a Grade 1 win on his CV but is another who was a long way behind Master Minded in a couple of races last season. He should get a lot closer to Kelso conqueror Stagecoach Pearl (25/1 with Coral) on much more favourable terms however. But this is Master Minded‘s for the taking if he brings his A game to the table.

Ladbrokes are refunding all losing outright bets on the ATP World Tour Finals if Andy Murray wins and that could cost the Harrow-based bookmakers a pretty penny.

Murray is only a best 3/1 with sportingbet to end his season on a high despite being drawn in the same first-round group as world number one Novak Djokovic (a general 9/2). The Serb was forced to pull out of the recent Paris Masters with a shoulder injury and has been struggling to regain full fitness ahead of the season finale at London’s O2 Arena. Murray also beat him at Cincinnati before the US Open, though again Djokovic was hampered by his shoulder. Also in their group are David Ferrer (66/1 with sportingbet and bwin), whom Murray beat in the final of the Shanghai Masters, and Tomas Berdych. Given Djokovic‘s current problems, it may well be the Czech (22/1 0n betfair and with bet365) who provides the Scot’s biggest challenge in the group matches as he holds a 3-1 career advantage over Murray and knocked him out of the Paris Masters at the quarter-final stage.

The second group sees yet another clash between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer but it’s the Swiss who comes into the ATP World Tour Finals in the better form. He’s won back-to-back tournaments in Basel and Paris and has already won this event six times. Nadal may have won 17 times in head-to-head encounters compared to Federer‘s eight but hasn’t won a tournament since beating his old rival in the final of the French Open in May and was a long way below his best when losing to Florian Mayer in Shanghai when last on court. There’s a chance a rest will have done him some good but sportingbet think otherwise and are prepared to offer 6/1 against the Spaniard. Federer, on the other hand, is a best 21/10 with Boylesports to go on and win the event after emerging relatively unscathed from a group that also includes world number six Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and American Mardy Fish. Fish (90/1 with Paddy Power) has only won one of seven previous meetings with Federer and, as the rankings and betting suggest, looks the weak link in the ATP World Tour Finals but Tsonga has had a good year, winning in Vienna and Metz, and will give both the Swiss and Nadal a game.

Stan James have also opened a book on naming the two finalists and lead with a Federer/Murray showdown at 11/4. They would have to be the two on current form, while Ladbrokes are out on a limb in offering 6/5 against Murray reaching the final.