Statistics. Most punters rely heavily on them and just ask any fantasy footballer what the staple of their success is and you will probably hear the word “statistics” somewhere in their answer. It’s not a great secret that the studying of factors like form and trends can hugely boost your opportunities in collecting some returns from your sports betting.
Serious football betting punters are likely to be glancing at the Premier League table at least a few times per week and crunching the numbers to find a trend to apply to the forthcoming fixtures. The most basic value of this is simply in looking at home and away from. You aren’t going to reasonably back a team to win away from home if they have lost five of their last six out on the road.
You are going to have even less reason to be backing them if they are travelling to a team who has only lost one of their last six on home soil. That’s the very basic approach to statistics for football betting, but while it is an extremely simple example, it is one that you can actually use to see the value of looking at statistics. Most people however, generally only associate statistics study with pre-match wagers and forget that many of the same principals and disciplines can also apply to live in-play betting.
It is something which gets a little overlooked because the nature of live in-play betting with a bookmaker is an exciting roller-coaster ride of betting with emotions. That’s completely the wrong way to go about your betting, because with long term goals in mind, you need a much steadier approach as opposed to the fly by the seat of your pants experience.
They help. You aren’t going to be guaranteed a winner from studying stats, but it will certainly increase your understanding of betting and the value of odds presented on a market at an online bookmaker. Freelance NBC Sports writer Rob Allen and creator of I’mAWinner.co.uk came up with golden rules of football betting which include
1) understanding that you are going to lose
2) choose the best odds available
3) never place a reactive bet
Some sage advice there and check out I’mAWinner.co.uk for more insights. That third one can be a very, very tricky minefield when you are looking at live in-play betting. By its very nature, live in-play betting just entices you to wager on the current action without too much though and as you are sat watching a game you get those gut feelings that something is going to happen and you throw money at it. It’s hard not to and that is why it has become such a popular feature, and a moneymaker, for bookmakers. Punters will likely have less discipline during live in-play betting that just waiting for a match outright bet to play itself out.
Live In-Play Betting and Statistics
This is where statistics can also apply heavily to live in-play betting. Along with that, the old caveat of discipline has to be married together. There should be no instance in betting where you are not exerting discipline. What do we mean by discipline? We mean sticking to a game plan and managing your bankroll properly and not getting swept in a moment. Go back to number three above, never make a reactionary bet.
You have to curtail your urges with live in-play betting and you bet with your head and not your heart, or your gut or whatever is driving your adrenalin in the moment. It’s essential to remain focused and there really is a need to sit down and plan out an approach to your live betting, just as you would do in your pre-match wagers. This is where the old statistical approach comes in.
Let’s make an example match of Chelsea v Manchester United and we are going to find live in-play bets for it, ahead of time this is, not just five minutes before kick off. We have a bankroll of £10 for the game. We notice that Chelsea have not conceded the opening goal of a game in all but one of their home games this season. That’s a big trend and you could plan out a 5 stake on the First Team to score being Chelsea, based on their lack of first goals conceded.
Maybe then it is Diego Costa who has scored three of Chelsea’s last five opening goals of the game. However, if Chelsea haven’t scored an opening goal in the first fifteen minutes of their last half a dozen games then it could be worth planning to get a wager down live in-play on Costa to score next after 15 minutes have ticked off on the clock. Again, this is all down to planning and sticking to the plan based on the statistics that you have looked at before hand. Just because Chelsea have been on the back foot in the opening forays, doesn’t mean that Costa still won’t score first.
The panic for punters comes in when, in this case for example, Manchester United slotted home an opening goal in the first five minutes of the game. There goes your first wager down the pan immediately. The temptation is just to throw a rash of bets then to try and make up for the early losses. Never do this, never chases losses, that again, is reactionary betting. You can tweak, because for example your Diego Costa bet could still stand as him being the next goalscorer in live betting as Chelsea push for an equaliser.
This all goes back to the statistical approach again. Never discount the necessity for statistics ahead of live betting. The same principals apply as if you were looking at statistics such as home and away head to head form for a match outright, or the over/under 2.5 goals trend for a fixed bet pre-match. Statistics can help you immensely with your live in-play betting planning and just remember to plan, plan, plan.
Just don’t go into a game blind and throw money left right and centre because your emotions are getting the better of you. Get the better of them, plan your live betting and don’t forget some of those golden rules. Because of the appeal of live betting, you can find great statistical information running at online betting sites to help you out.