Punters, and connections, will have been breathing a huge a sigh of relief on Thursday when ante-post favourite St Michel sneaked into the £1/4 million pound Betfred Cesarewitch on Saturday, just one place above the official cut-off (reserves not included).
Sir Mark Prescott’s Sea The Stars colt, the only three-year-old to have made the final line-up, has been all the rage with backers since his staying-on third in the Doncaster Cup last month. We now know he’ll stay the 2m2f of the Newmarket marathon but he does have a penalty to carry and it’s questionable as to whether there is any value remaining in his current general 6/1 odds.
Sponsors Betfred are one of a few bookmakers offering each-way betting down to fifth place in the second leg of the Autumn Double, however, and it’s difficult to see St Michel finishing out of the frame if he gets the run of the race. His trainer also has another fancied runner in Sea Of Heaven (14/1 with Bet365), though he is closely matched with a number of Saturday’s rivals.
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Cesarewitch History and Trends
The Cesarewitch is a run over a distance of 2m2f (3,621 metres) at Newmarket every October. Unusually for such a long distance, the race is run in almost a straight line (just one bend after 10 furlongs). A unique feature of the Cesarewitch course is that it crosses a county border – the race starts in Cambridgeshire and finishes in Suffolk.
It’s unusual name is an anglicised version of Tsesarevich, the title of the heir to the throne in Imperial Russia. The race was named in honour of Tsesarevich Alexander (later Tsar Alexander II), after he donated £300 to the Jockey Club.
First run in 1839, it’s been a regular fixture in the racing calendar since.
Cesarewitch winners require stamina in abundance. Every winner in the last 20 years had previously won over at least 1m6f, with 14 of the 20 having proven themselves over 2m. However, only five of the last 20 winners won their previous race, though a good run last time out is important. Those aged four or older fare best and trainers better known for their jumpers aged four or older have a terrific record. David Pipe, Alan King, Willie Mullins and Tony Martin are specialaist NH trainers with runners this year.
I’m really keen on the chances of NAKEETA in the Cesarewitch at 25/1 with Betfred.
Iain Jardine’s stayer was second in the Chester Cup in May and has hardly put a foot wrong since. A few drops of rain would not have come amiss but he was only beaten half-a-length by Sea Of Heaven on fast ground at Ascot in July and is now 4lb better off. Their respective odds make no sense based on that form and the Scottish raider has since gone close again at York when he finished ahead of the likes of The Cashel Man, Sweet Selection, Havana Beat, Life Less Ordinary, My Reward and Renneti.
The Cashel Man is also interesting as he was second in last month’s Cesarewitch Trial – the general 16/1 could be a decent each-way bet if the blinkers work a second time.
Betfred Cesarewitch Forecast Best Odds
St Michel (6/1), Starchitect (8/1), Sweet Selection (10/1), Sea Of Heaven (14/1), The Cashel Man (16/1), Oriental Fox (18/1), Blue Rambler and Montaly (20/1), Ennistown, Golden Spear, Nakeeta and Renneti (25/1), Star Rider (28/1), Shrewd, Gabrial The Hero, Grumeti, Havana Beat, Life Less Ordinary, Mill Springs, Modem and Moonmeister (33/1), Seismos, Yorkidding, First Mohican, The Minch, Wind Place And Sho and Mistiroc (40/1), Angel Gabrial, My Reward and Gabrial’s Star (50/1), Leah Freya, Gaarsten and The Twisler (66/1)
