The 20 horses for the running of the Kentucky Derby 2017 are set and the draw has been made, so now punters have a real picture of things ahead of Saturday’s showdown in the opening Triple Crown race. Classic Empire is the 4/1 favourite now at Bet36 and goes off from stall 14 and here we take a look at some of the stats that may help you nail down a Kentucky Derby Winner. The race is set for 2.46 am on Sunday morning BST, which is 6.46 pm EST in America. There are 143 years of history running on this renewal and it should be a fantastic battle.
Setting out your stall
Because of the stall positions at the famous race, it has allowed the number crunchers to determine the best positions to go off from. It is stall number five which has produced the most winners in the history of the Kentucky Derby (13) and that is good news for Always Dreaming, who has been well backed near the head of the market anyway at 5/1. That positions Always Dreaming well away from the other favourites and back just three years ago California Chrome won from stall five.
Of course, that is a really narrow margin though, picking one stall. You will want to generally avoid runners close to the rail because that is a pretty sorry place to go off from, so avoid 1-3. You really want to be looking at the other end because anywhere beyond stall 12 seems to have produced a sweet spot recently. So who does that bring into play? Classic Empire who is the 4/1 favourite anyway, is running from stall 15 and Irish War Cry at 6/1 and McCracken at 5/1 at Bet365 are in that sweet spot too at 17 and 15 respectively.
Top Trainer Trend
Since 2000 only two trainers have managed to win the Kentucky Derby on more than one occasion. That is Doug O’Neill (who has actually won two of the five past Derby races in the last five editions with Nyquist last year and I’ll Have Another. His main runner in the field is Irap at 20/1 with Bet365. The only other trainer to land more than one win in the last 17 runs is the legendary trainer Bob Baffert.
So if you want to flip that around, that is a lot of trainers winning the Kentucky derby for the first time in their careers in recent years. So at the head of the market, both Mark Casse with Classic Empire and Ian Wilkes who is behind McCraken are seeking their first wins. Trainers in the field among the main contenders who are looking for their second Kentucky Derby win is Todd Pletcher behind Always Dreaming and Graham Motion behind Irish War Cry.
Jockey Trend
So you have a picture of the positions and the best trainers to run with. What about the Jockey? Well, Mario Gutierrez has been the top man at the race with two wins in the last four editions. He was in the saddle last year riding Nyquist to victory and he goes on 20/1 shot Irap which will make the charge even more appealing. Victor Espinoza, who has won the other two races in the last four years goes on Gormley, trained by John Shirreffs who won the race with Giacomo in 2005 so is another of the trainers looking for a second win in the race. In the saddle of Always Dreaming is John Velazquez who won on Animal Kingdom in 2011. Brian Hernandez Jr is on McCraken, and while he is trying to get his first Kentucky Derby win, he did win the Preakness back in 2009.
Post positions and odds for 2017 Kentucky Derby
1 Lookin at Lee 20-1
2 Thunder Snow 20-1
3 Fast and Accurate 50-1
4 Untrapped 30-1
5 Always Dreaming 5-1
6 State of Honor 30-1
7 Girvin 15-1
8 Hence 15-1
9 Irap 20-1
10 Gunnevera 15-1
11 Battle of Midway 30-1
12 Sonneteer 50-1
13 J Boys Echo 20-1
14 Classic Empire 4-1 (favourite)
15 McCracken 5-1
16 Tapwrit 20-1
17 Irish War Cry 6-1
18 Gormley 15-1
19 Practical Joke 20-1
20 Patch 30-1
AE Royal Mo 20-1
AE Master Plan 50-1
Kentucky Derby 2017 Runners
Always Dreaming – has been a favourite for many punters in the build up and gets that lucky number small five (which has produced 13 winners at Churchill Downs). He took a win at the Florida Derby by an easy five lengths which is a great trial and indicator for the Kentucky Derby. The Florida Derby has produced four Kentucky Derby winners in the last 15 years.
Gormley – Although a little inconsistent in running and this being a bit longer of a distance that which he excels at, there could be a great challenging coming in from Gormley if he gets it right on the day. Each of the last winners of the Derby have won their final prep race and Gormley did that in winning the Santa Anita Derby, which is the top Kentucky Derby qualifier. He has the speed.
McCracken – Picked up an ankle injury in February, which was reported as being minor, but he missed the Tampa Bay Derby in mid-March and only placed at the Blue Grass Stakes in early April. So he may not be at his best because he was on fire, winning four races on the bounce before the injury. Unless he is just being held back in prep for the Churchill Downs.
Classic Empire – Won the Arkansas Derby last month by half a length. The 2-year-old Champion colt won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and is expected to build on his 5-0-1 record in his seven starts. Jockey Julien Leparoux is 0-9 in the Kentucky Derby itself.
Irish War Cry – Flying under the radar a big but could be in with a decent shot at placing at worst in this one. He was trading much stronger in the Kentucky Derby field before he misfired in the Fountain of Youth where he finished seventh. Still, he crushed the battalion Runner Field and landed the Holy Bull. Will he be on his game?
Kentucky Derby 2017 Predictions:
The running is expected to be wet. Wet and muddy and so that will change the game. Classic Empire isn’t convincing enough of a favourite to warrant backing for us so we would shift our attention over to Always Dreaming who should be a lock for a place finish. Coming at good value is McCraken at 5/1 with bet365 and if he is fully fit and not holding back, he will love the conditions. The best outsider chance will come in from Irap.
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