Borussia Dortmund v Benfica Betting Preview – UEFA Champions League 8th March 7.45pm
Somehow Benfica are holding an advantage in this tie. They pulled off a 1-0 home win over the German giants in the first leg despite being heavily second best in all departments. But somehow their stubborn defence stuck in there to see them protect their lead. There is even more pressure to come now as they head out to Germany for the second leg on Wednesday and with the amount of goals that Dortmund have netted this season in Europe, it is likely that the home side are going to find a way to turn this all around. Get set for an entertaining ride.
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Borussia Dortmund v Benfica Betting Tips
So the Germans are 1-0 down after having lost the first leg. But they hold a 100% home record against Portuguese sides and that will give them hope when Benfica come to town on Wednesday. Borussia Dortmund were dominant in the first leg, but just ran into an inspired and stubborn Benfica defence. Dortmund also missed a penalty. They are the top scorers in the UEFA Champions League this season, netting 21 group stage goals to beat Real Madrid to top spot. Dortmund have lost just one of their last 11 home games (W8 D2) in UEFA competition and punters will back them heavily to turn this time around. They have won all five of their previous home games against Portuguese visitors, including a win over Porto last season.
Dortmund won home and away in the group stage against Clube de Portugal as well. Dortmund have won eight of the fifteen UEFA competition ties after losing the first leg away from home. Dortmund have lost seven of their last nine games in the knockout stage of the UEFA Champions League (W2) but you know that they are going to throw the kitchen sink at this. Pierre Aubameyang, who missed the penalty in the first leg, is a 1/2 anytime goalscorer at William Hill with Marco Reus at 21/20. Dortmund have scored twelve goals in their last three games in the build up for this one so the goals have been flowing from them. In the William Hill correct score market a Dortmund 2-0 correct score is trading at 6/1 with a 3-0 return coming in at 8/1.
Cna Benfica hang in there? You would imagine that they need the game to stay under 2.5 goals at a price of 13/10 with William Hill to increase their chances of doing so. They just need to land a draw and they will progress. Benfica have lost all nine of their away games against German sides in the European Cup/Champions League and they have scored just the four goals in that sequence of games, shipping 26. So there is going to be a massive 90 minutes for them to try and stick in there. Their 1-0 win over Dortmund in the first leg was pulled off by their only shot on target in the entire games and four of their last six games in the competition have been from set pieces. It’s hard picturing them having enough to strike back with if they concede the first goal in this game.
Kosta Mitroglou, who scored the goal in the first leg, is up at a price of 13/5 in the anytime goalscorer market for this one. The only time they went to Dortmund which was back in the 1963 European Cup, the Portuguese side were smashed 5-0. Of the sixteen teams to make it through from the group stage this season, Benfica gained the fewest points of all of them (just eight) and they went W1 D1 L1 in their three group stage away games, conceding seven goals. Benfica went up against Bayern in last season’s quarter finals and lost 1-0 in Germany. Overall their away record against German sides is W2 D6 L14. They do have a W12 L1 record from previous European ties which they won 1-0 at home in the first leg though. A tough, long 90 minutes is ahead for Benfica.
Borussia Dortmund v Benfica Betting Odds
Borussia Dortmund 4/11, Draw 15/4, Benfica 8/1
Borussia Dortmund v Benfica Predictions
Look for Dortmund to step up in this one and make their class tell at the end of the day. It’s still a little confusing as to how they lost the first leg but they aren’t going to be troubled too badly in this one and they can coast to a win in this one with a clean sheet in the bag. Benfica are in great winning form at the moment, but sticking it out at BVB isn’t likely to happen. Dortmund to win to nil is the way to go.
