Finland Vs Liechtenstein
Friday 15 November 2019 – 17:00 Kick-Off
UEFA Euro 2020 Qualifying
Pick: Finland & Over 3.5 Goals
Odds: 10/11
Bookmaker: Ladbrokes
UEFA Euro 2020 Qualifying Betting – 22Bet
(All odds displayed were correct as of 13 November 2019 at 10:20)
Preview: Just one more win is all that stands between Finland and qualification to the 2020 European Championship finals. Those three points needed should be earned on Friday evening, up against bottom of the group Liechtenstein inside the Telia 5G-Arena in Helsinki.
Finland Preview – Scandinavians setting out to create history?
Group J Results: Italy 2-0 (A), Armenia 0-2 (A), Bosnia 2-0 (H), Liechtenstein 0-2 (A), Greece 1-0 (H), Italy 1-2 (H), Bosnia 4-1 (A), Armenia 3-0 (H)
Registering 15 out of a possible 24 points has placed Finland (2nd – W5 D0 L3, GF12 GA8) in an incredibly commanding position to qualify from a difficult group. There are various permutations that could see them qualify with a game to spare on Friday, with even a draw sufficient so long as Bosnia fail to beat a flawless Italian side at home. Victory, though, would simplify matters even further and see them qualify for a first major tournament in their history.
The sheer magnitude of what is at stake could, however, bring nerves into the equation. This, after all, is a country unaccustomed to such high-stakes scenarios. Coach Markku Kanerva should be feeling supremely confident regarding his team seeing the task at hand out in the knowledge they have claimed maximum points in three of their four home qualifiers thus far, losing only to Italy (1-2). Armenia (1-0), Bosnia (2-0 and Greece (1-0) were all clinically dispatched at home, for the loss of no goals.
A home encounter with the lowest-ranked nation in their section should, therefore, be as straightforward an assignment as one could have wished for. Furthermore, no nerves were apparent during last month’s crucial home fixture with direct rivals Armenia, winning 3-0 as star striker Teemu Pukki found the back of the net twice. The goals may have dried up domestically for the Norwich talisman but that certainly has not been the case while on international duty, top-scoring with seven goals and scoring in four of their five group victories.
Liechtenstein Preview – Can underdogs punish favourite backers again?
Group J Results: Greece 0-2 (H), Italy 6-0 (A), Armenia 3-0 (A), Finland 0-2 (H), Bosnia 5-0 (A), Greece 1-1 (A), Armenia 1-1 (H), Italy 0-5 (H)
For much of this qualifying campaign, Liechtenstein (6th – W0 D2 L6, GF2 GA25) have demonstrated why they are ranked among the lowest European nations (181) in the FIFA Rankings. Their first five group games returned zero points, as many goals scored and a staggering 18 goals conceded, at a rate of 3.6 goals per game. Then they caught everybody by complete surprise, earning successive 1-1 draws with Greece and Armenia to leave those who had backed their opposition perplexed and frustrated.
Unfortunately, this unforeseen point splurge could not be sustained. Trust the Italians to restore natural order, then, netting five in the Liechtenstein capital of Vaduz to extend their tally across the two respective meetings to eleven goals. Just as well there has been no football played since then because that emphatic defeat would have dealt a blow to this newfound confidence of theirs.
Now, the minnows are preparing for a first away game since stunning Greece – and punters alike – when scoring late to snatch an unlikely point in Athens in September. That result was truly remarkable, not least because their previous three group fixtures as the visiting side would see them beaten 3-0, 5-0 and 6-0 by Armenia, Bosnia and Italy respectively. It would also halt a losing run of seven matches away from home. Surely it cannot happen again?
Finland Vs Liechtenstein Key Facts:
- Finland are currently second in Group J (W5 D0 L3), just one more win from securing automatic qualification as runners-up.
- Liechtenstein are bottom of the group (W0 D2 L6) and have conceded on average three goals per game.
- In four previous meetings Liechtenstein are still to record a win (D2 L2), though would draw 1-1 on their most recent visit to Finland for a 2017 friendly.
Betting Summary
Pressure is mounting on Finland. Victory in this penultimate fixture would guarantee them second position in the group. Only Italy, meanwhile, have gotten the better of them at home, and even that was a close run thing losing late on to a penalty. Armenia, Bosnia and Greece were all beaten to nil in Helsinki and, nerves permitting, it should be more of the same here.
Though still winless in Group J, Liechtenstein would nevertheless restore some pride with a pair of score-draws versus Armenia and Greece. Those positive outcomes were, however, sandwiched between some heavy losses. Only Latvia and San Marino have conceded more often in Euro 2020 Qualifying. Meanwhile, not since recording a 2-0 win at home to Gibraltar in September of last year have they celebrated a victory of any kind (D3 L9 since).
I cannot see how Finland don’t win this. Their opponents have been thumped in every away outing except for in Greece, who have been average anyway. Finding a worthwhile bet of value is challenging, though, with Pukki/Finland (2/5) and Finland to Nil (1/4) prohibitive by price. Regardless, the hosts should be too determined to be denied.
