Hobro V AGF Aarhus
Monday, 15th July 2019 – 18:00 Kick-Off
Danish Superliga
Pick: Hobro or Draw (Double Chance)
Odds: 8/11
Bookmaker: Betway
 |
1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/5 | 12/5 | 11/10 |
* (All betting odds displayed were taken from BetVictor on July 13th, 2019 at 13:45)
Preview: A new season begins for Hobro and AGF Aarhus, as the two sides meet at the DS Arena for what has been a lopsided encounter in recent times. The visitors have prevailed on each of their previous two trips to the home of Hobro. Can they complete the hat-trick?
Hobro Preview – Early improvement from last season’s strugglers?
Despite finishing the regular season second from bottom, and the relegation round at the foot of the standings, Hobro somehow retained their status in the Danish Superliga. Victory in a relegation play-off ultimately spared them a demotion to the league below, overcoming Viborg 3-0 on aggregate. It was all a little too close for comfort though, something they will be desperate to avoid this time around.
Significant improvements are needed from the club in North Jutland, whose form throughout the entirety of the previous campaign was a recipe for relegation. No team scored with less regularity or conceded more frequently than Hobro, who only had Vejle below them in the table come the end of the regular season after winning just five of 26 fixtures (W5 D6 L15, GF22 GA45).
Matters didn’t exactly improve once placed in the relegation round either, where they won on only one occasion (W1 D2 L3, GF9 GA10). The one positive, though, will have been their form at home. All of their six victories were reserved exclusively for their DS Arena (W6 D3 L7, GF17 GA24). Unfortunately none of those included their opponents in this opening game, as Aarhus ran out 2-0 winners and would later record a league double with another to nil success back at home (1-0). Plenty of work to be doing, therefore, if they’re to reverse the fortunes of this fixture.
Preparations for the new Danish Superliga featured a couple of friendlies with Horsens (1-1) and Frederica (0-0). Solid yet unspectacular outcomes.
AGF Preview – AGF to continue their love affair with this fixture?
There may have been an air of optimism around Aarhus as the previous season reached its conclusion, with the club excelling in the closing stages to finish with five successive victories. These were earned whilst in the relegation round and against teams outside of the top six, but this sparkling form was nonetheless impressive and good enough for sixth place overall. Has that momentum dissipated during the off-season or can the team pick up where it left off?
That sixth place I mentioned was when combining all teams results in the regular season with that in the Championship/Relegation round. A more accurate reflection of Aarhus’ current level might be their final placement in the league at the close of the regular season, which was 9th (W7 D10 L9, GF31 GA34). Moreover, of those seven victories just two were earned on their travels (W2 D6 L5, GF14 GA18).
However, one of those rare away day successes was in the corresponding fixture, when winning 2-0 at Hobro early into proceedings. They would later do the double by winning the reverse encounter 1-0 back at home, and it continues their dominance in this particular head-to-head having now won five out of the last six league meetings. Perhaps of more relevance will be the fact they have been victorious in each of the last two away from home (2-0 last season and 3-1 in 2017-18).
Aarhus warmed up for the forthcoming season by playing an extra friendly compared to their rivals, securing a couple of confidence boosting wins against Aabyhoj (0-4) and Horsens (0-3) before a stalemate with Randers (1-1).
Hobro V AGF Aarhus Key Facts:
- Hobro’s six league victories last term were all earned at home (W6 D3 L7).
- The form side are undoubtedly AGF, who concluded last season by winning five consecutive games.
- AGF have dominated the recent head-to-head by winning five of the last six meetings (W5 L1), including the previous two at Hobro.
Betting Summary
On initial inspection, AGF are worthy of favourtism. Especially after finishing the last league campaign in exceptional form with five consecutive wins. The fixture itself is also a big positive for them having won both meetings last season, as well as prevailing on each of their previous two visits to Hobro. However, Aarhus do have a tendency of struggling on their travels: of their seven victories in the regular season, just two were earned away from home. The off-season could have halted their momentum as well.
Hobro, meanwhile, are in the opposite boat. Enduring a season of struggle last time, the break has allowed them a period of introspection. They’re also a stronger proposition in front of their own fans: of their six league victories last term, 100% of those were registered at their DS Arena.
So while I agree the visitors should be favourites, I cannot agree about their odds. The hosts need to be collecting points from games such as these if they’re to fend off the threat of relegation, and there is enough scope in their odds to make the home side worth chancing at a ground they typically produce their best football.
