Kazakhstan Vs Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan Vs Azerbaijan Friday, 3 June 2022 – 15:00 (BST)
UEFA Nations League
Pick: Kazakhstan Draw No Bet
Odds: 4/5
Bookmaker: Bet365
(All betting odds correct at time of writing: 1 June 2022)
Preview: With both countries having failed to register a single victory in their recent World Cup qualifying efforts, a return to UEFA Nations League action, where they will face teams more akin to their own ability, should be well received.
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Table of Contents
Kazakhstan – Hawks to seize on their lucky escape?
Despite finishing bottom of their group in 2021-22, ‘The Hawks’ would go on to avoid demotion to the fourth and lowest tier of UEFA Nations League by prevailing on penalties in a two-legged relegation play-off against Moldova. It all means that Kazakhstan are back for their third stint in League C, having won only two of twelve (W2 D4 L6, GF13 GA16) group stage matches at this level across the past two campaigns.
Their sole win during the previous season’s competition did come in the opener, though. A 2-0 scoreline in Lithuania preceding five winless outings in a section that also included Albania and Belarus. Meanwhile their 2-1 victory in the first-leg of that aforementioned relegation play-off represents one of only two wins in 18 matches (D5 L11) going back to September 2020. Winning one of the last 11 as hosts (D2 L8).
Key Stat: A bright start from the home side seems hopeful at best. Kazakhstan haven’t managed to find the opposing team’s net inside the first 45 minutes in 13 of their last 15 competitive matches.
Azerbaijan – Search for first win of 2022 resumes in earnest?
Two of the three Azerbaijan victories earned across both previous UEFA Nations League campaigns were away from home. They would win only one of six group matches last time around. That on their way to a third place finish in Group C1, behind Montenegro and Luxembourg but ahead of a Cyprus side whom they edged out 1-0 in Nicosia – one of two wins across their last 25 international matches (D6 L17).
This looks like being another arduous slog, then, for a team seeking their first winning performance since staging a spirited comeback to score a stoppage-time winner in Belarus twelve months ago. In the intervening period, a side presently ranked 129 has suffered eight losses in ten attempts. These include their only outings so far of 2022, both via 1-0 scorelines back in March at the hands of Malta and Latvia.
Key Stat: Anyone tempted by the goal line should take not. There were less than three goals scored in nine of Azerbaijan’s twelve UEFA Nations League group stage games since the competition’s inception in 2018.
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Kazakhstan Vs Azerbaijan Betting Advice
Between them they have amassed five victories from 24 UEFA Nations League games, scoring a total of 22 goals – in other words, less than a goal a game. So it comes as little surprise that the price about Under 2.5 Goals (currently a best priced 1/2) is as short as it is. The more appealing alternative in a contest expected to be light on goals is the draw, which makes sense between two teams accustomed to not winning matches.
Kazakhstan Vs Azerbaijan – Key Facts:
- Three of the last four head-to-heads were won by Kazakhstan (L1), who prevailed the last two occasions they have welcomed Azerbaijan. The most recent of which being a 3-0 friendly success in June 2018.
- Both teams have struggled in this competition though. They would total just five victories across 24 UEFA Nations League, averaging less than a goal per game between them.
- Neither of these nations could conjure up a win during their most recent campaign, that being 2022 World Cup Qualifying (Kazakhstan: D3 L5; Azerbaijan: D1 L7). Scoring just five goals apiece in eight matches.
History favours the home side though, with three of the past four head-to-heads resulting in a win for the team boasting home advantage that day. The exception a 1-0 away win for Kazakhstan in a 2016 friendly, earning them their third victory across the last four match-ups between the nations. They would also prevail in all but one of four previous encounters as hosts, making them my tentative selection.
Best Betting Odds – Kazakhstan Vs Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan – 13/8 (Coral)
Draw – 21/10 (Bet365)
Azerbaijan – 19/10 (BetVictor)
