Luxembourg Vs Portugal
Sunday 17 November 2019 – 14:00 Kick-Off
UEFA Euro 2020 Qualifying
Pick: Portugal & Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 6/10
Bookmaker: Boylesports
UEFA Euro 2020 Qualifying Betting – 22Bet
(All betting odds displayed were correct as of 16 November 2019 at 09:55)
Preview: A hugely significant match as far as Portugal are concerned. The Portuguese must win this final Group B fixture to book their tickets to the Euro 2020 finals. Their opponents, Luxembourg, will have home advantage, but is that enough to record a shock result?
Luxembourg Preview – Another tenacious performance expected?
Group B Results: Lithuania 2-1 (H), Ukraine 1-2 (H), Lithuania 1-1 (A), Ukraine 1-0 (A), Serbia 1-3 (H), Portugal 3-0 (A), Serbia 3-2 (A)
Not for the first time, Luxembourg (4th – W1 D1 L5, GF7 GA14) would threaten an upset in their latest qualifier. Scoring twice in Belgrade through midfielder Gerson Rodrigues and forward David Turpel, the plucky underdogs would cause their Serbian hosts quite a scare in a 3-2 loss. That narrow loss does, unfortunately, mean they are guaranteed to finish the group in fourth regardless of what happens in the final round of group games.
Ranked 96th in the FIFA Rankings, the loss in Serbia on Thursday was another instance of Luxembourg producing a more competitive showing than maybe some would have anticipated. Their two encounters against the group leaders, Ukraine, were both settled by a single goal, with an own goal the difference in the home fixture. Their heaviest defeat, meanwhile, being only 3-0, which was against Portugal last month in Lisbon.
A strength of theirs throughout this campaign has been scoring goals. Not exactly in abundance but consistently, at least. On just two occasions were ‘The Red Lions’ prevented from scoring, with five of their seven group games producing both teams scoring including all three staged in Luxembourg City (2-1 Lithuania, 1-2 Ukraine and 1-3 Serbia). So the potential is there for the hosts to contribute to an entertaining encounter.
Portugal Preview – Pressure mounting ahead of must-win encounter?
Group B Results: Ukraine 0-0 (H), Serbia 1-1 (H), Serbia 2-4 (A), Lithuania 1-5 (A), Luxembourg (3-0), Ukraine 2-1 (A), Lithuania 6-0 (H)
Perhaps whisper it quietly, but there is the very real prospect of Portugal (2nd – W4 D2 L1, GF20 GA6), and a certain Cristiano Ronaldo, not featuring at Euro 2020. Their position in Group B is precarious but, and more importantly, in their control. Victory from their final qualifying game would ensure that coach Fernando Santos and his men finish second in the group – though their advantage over Serbia in third is a mere point, meaning any slip-up could be brutally punished.
The Portuguese are proof that scoring more than your rivals doesn’t necessarily equate to winning more matches. Their figure of 20 scored is five more than any other team has so far managed in Group B, and superior to all but three other countries in the other groups as well (although all three have already qualified for the finals with ease). Eleven were scored across their two contests with the weakest nation in this section, Lithuania, so that tally does also flatter them slightly.
A 6-0 rout of Lithuania on home soil was how Portugal warmed up for this must-win fixture. Cristiano Ronaldo scored another hat-trick. His second of the group, taking his overall goal tally in this qualifying campaign to nine. The Juventus forward has also scored in every away encounter thus far, in victories against Lithuania (1-5) and Serbia (2-4) but also in defeat versus Ukraine (2-1). His ego within would love nothing more than to be the man who scores the goal(s) which carries his nation to another major tournament.
Luxembourg Vs Portugal Key Facts:
- Luxembourg have claimed all four points in Group B against bottom-of-the-group Lithuania, though would score in five of their seven fixtures.
- Portugal have endured a mixed qualifying campaign so far but would secure second place with victory here – they’ve won two of their three away matches (W2 L1).
- In thirteen previous meetings, Portugal have come out on top twelve times (W12 L1) winning the last eleven consecutive encounters with Luxembourg.
Betting Summary
Luxembourg are destined to finish the grouo in fourth regardless of the result in this game or elsewhere. So there is little in the way of motivation for them, other than playing the role of spoilers. All four of their points were earned against Lithuania, the bottom side. Meanwhile five of their seven group games would produce both teams scoring, including all three home encounters.
Portugal need to clutch up here, requiring a win to be certain of qualification. A comfortable 3-0 success in the reverse meeting should inspire confidence, however, Fernando Santos’ side have looked shaky on their travels, collecting six of nine points and conceding in all three said fixtures (5 in total). An overall goal tally of 20 is comfortably the best in this group, though.
If all goes to script, Portugal win this. Probably without the drama that this group has largely provided them. Defensively too many goals were leaked, particularly away from home, conceding twice at Serbia and Ukraine and even conceding a consolation in Lithuania. This has the potential, therefore, to be another high-scoring affair. Portugal & Both Teams to Score looks value at 9/2 (Betfair).
