Marseille V Saint-Etienne
Sunday 1st September 2019 -20:00 Kick-Off
French Ligue 1
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds: 19/20
Bookmaker: MarathonBet
 |
1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97/100 | 5/2 | 29/10 |
* (All betting odds displayed were correct as of 30th August 2019 at 16:40)
Preview: In last season’s Ligue 1, St. Etienne pipped Marseille to fourth place. After slow starts from the pair of them, these sides also find themselves keeping each other company only further down in the lower half of the table. Therefore the desire for points is strong within both camps, but who will come out on top at Marseille’s Stade Velodrome? It’s a game shown live on BT Sport.
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Marseille Preview – L’OM to reign supreme again in this fixture?
The Andre Villas-Boas experiment is in its early days but supporters will not have been thrilled with some of what they have seen so far. Prior to a 2-1 victory earned away to Nice last weekend, L’OM had failed to record a win – or even score a goal – from their first two Ligue 1 fixtures, opening with a shocker of a result at home to Reims (0-2) before playing out a drab 0-0 draw at Nantes.
Victory in Nice was timely therefore, with Villas-Boas finally seeing some substance produced from his players. Dario Benedetto had given them the lead midway through the first period, although Marseille were reliant on a Dimitri Payet spot-kick to ensure of the win. A draw probably would have been a fairer outcome, at least according to their respective xGs (Nice 1.64 – Marseille 1.63).
Perhaps fortunate to have gotten all three points last time out, Marseille will know significant improvements are needed if they are to improve upon their disappointing 5th place finish in 2018-19. This particular fixture, however, could very well bring out the best in them – Les Olympiens last not lost at home to St. Etienne in Ligue 1 since way back in 1979, and have triumphed in each of the previous three, all without conceding a goal.
If the home win has an air of inevitability about it (which, if early performances are anything to go by, isn’t really the case), one thing that certainly cannot be guaranteed is goals. Not only has each of the previous three Ligue 1 meetings between these two teams failed to produce both teams to score, but so have seven of Marseille’s last ten Ligue 1 home games.
Saint-Etienne Preview – Les Verts to respond positively to midweek mauling?
Les Verts made an excellent start to their season when scoring twice inside the opening 12 minutes away at Dijon on Matchday One, though their failure to add to that early haul almost cost them as they just about hung on for a 2-1 victory. Yet it was a game they could consider themselves extremely fortunate to claim maximum points from, with their opponents creating over twice as much Expected Goals (1.96 compared with 0.79).
It is often said that luck tends to balance itself out, and so it proved in the very next encounter as St. Etienne (2.12xG), despite clearly dominating, were not only made to settle for a point at home to Brest (0.42) but required a very late Denis Bouanga goal in order to do so. However, a resounding 3-0 loss away to Lille in their most recent outing was nothing less than they deserved (Lille 2.27XG – St. Etienne 0.77)
The theme thus far accurately reflects how the previous campaign panned out, with the better performances from the team usually reserved for home fixtures. St. Etienne have been a clear second best in both of their away encounters so far, which is a continuation from last season: despite a strong overall performance to finish in 4th position, that only six of their nineteen Ligue 1 victories were earned away from home speaks volumes (2018/19 away Ligue 1 record: W6 D7 L6).
To truly compound matters, this has been a fixture to be truly dreaded in the past. It has been 40 years since St. Etienne last went to Marseille in the league and secured the victory, losing on each of their most recent three visits without so much as scoring a goal.
Marseille V St. Etienne Key Facts:
- Marseille secured their first win of the season last weekend (W1 D1 L1), beating Nice 2-1 away.
- St. Etienne suffered their first defeat of the Ligue 1 campaign (W1 D1 L1) in midweek when going down 3-0 at Lille.
- The previous three Ligue 1 meetings at Marseille were all won by the home side to nil.
Betting Summary
An underwhelming start initially, failing to even score in their opening two league fixtures, did suddenly improve last time out with that 2-1 win at Nice. The performance may not have been all that but securing that elusive first win of the season was critically important to a team still adapting to a new manager. However, this is still a team which has fallen to defeats in three of its last four Ligue 1 home games including a shock 2-0 loss on the opening weekend to Reims.
You essentially know what you are going to get with St. Etienne, who remain a tough nut to crack on their own turf but are susceptible to below par displays on their travels, as was clearly in evidence during the week when they were convincingly beaten 3-0 at Lille. After that, it isn’t easy imagining how they then go to the Stade Velodrome and pick up a rare positive result – seeing as they’ve lost on each of their last three visits in the league.
Marseille were a more dependable outfit at home in last season’s Ligue 1, picking up 11 wins from their 19 fixtures staged at the Stade Velodrome. One of those was earned against St. Etienne, who have lost on each of their previous visits, and could struggle once again. However, preference is for Under 2.5 Goals. Neither attack has impressed thus far and this could be another cagey exchange.
